T
he slight figure of vice-president
Yemi Osinbajo in his austere
black tunic and Sokoto trousers
looked incongruous, flanked by burly
military officers, as he delivered his
addresstograduatesattheArmedForces
Command and Staff College in Jaji on
23 June. But his message – a melange of
hope and the direst of warnings – was
absolutely on the mark.
Osinbajo had spent much of the pre-
vious week meeting traditional and
religiousleaders,tryingtodampendown
a new wave of ethnic chauvinism. “Out
of the rubble of cynicism, divisions and
suspicions, we can build a new nation,”
Osinbajo told the graduates, drawn
from West Africa’s military elite, at the
Jaji academy. Until now, Osinbajo has
lived up to his billing as a self-effacing
technocratillateasewithpowerpolitics.That was part of Osinbajo’s job de-
scription as temporary head of state
duringPresidentMuhammaduBuhari’s
two extended absences on medical
leave in London this year. The trouble
started when Osinbajo broke out of
political purdah, winning plaudits for
taking initiatives.
Then, at the beginning of June, a
critique written under the pen name of
Dr Ismaila Farouk accused Osinbajo of
unduly favouring southern Christians
in his appointments. It is a charge
that Osinbajo’s office strongly rejects,
insisting all his appointments have
been strictly on merit.
Osinbajo’s speech to the Jaji gradu-
ates tried a direct answer to Farouk’s
critique: “The last two decades in
Nigeria have witnessed a quickened
retreat of the Nigerian elite to theirethnic and religious camps [...]. Unity
and disunity are promoted by the elite
[...]. When you hear a person say that
my tribe has been marginalised, usu-
ally what he is saying is: ‘Appoint me’.
Appointments in the public service are
no longer judged on merit.”
As he catalogued the failures of the
ruling elite, Osinbajo set out a brighter
futureforthegraduates:“Anationwhere
the rulers do not steal the common-
wealth,” he continued, “where every
Nigerian is safe to live and work, where
the state takes responsibility for the
security of each Nigerian, a Nigeria
where the Igbo or Ijaw man can live
peacefullyinSokoto,andtheFulaniman
can live peacefully in the Niger Delta.”
Nigeria’s diversity, like that of India and
Italy, should be a great strength, he said.
Thiscri de coeurwas rendered more
poignant still by its timing. Fifty years
ago, regional clashes over rights and
resources exploded into a civil war that
lasted for three years and cost more
than a million lives.
Horrifically, Nigeria’s civil war pio-
neered a new generation of conflicts
that was reproduced in Yugoslavia,
Colombia, Sri Lanka and Sudan. It
also defined the careers of Nigeria’s
post-independence leaders. Men
such as Generals Olusegun Obasanjo,
Ibrahim Babangida and Muhammadu
Buharifoughtonthefederalsideagainst
the Biafran secessionists.CALLS FOR ETHNIC CLEANSING
For many younger Nigerians, the past
is another country. But some Nigerians
have not moved on, seeing the war as
unfinished business. Just three weeks
before Osinbajo’s speech to the Jaji
graduates, a group of militants from the
Arewa Youth Consultative Forum called
on all Igbos in northern Nigeria to leave
the region before 1 October, national
independence day. That was the sort
of demand that triggered the civil war.
Making the call at a press conference
in Kaduna, the political capital of north-
ern Nigeria, youth leader Abdul-Azeez
Suleiman advised northerners living inNIGERIAA season of all the dangers
With President Buhari temporarily out of the picture, vice-president Osinbajo
is left to tackle festering ethnic and regional sentiments threatening the countryTHE BIG PICTURE EMERGING, as the government struggles with a rise
in ethnonationalism, is that the presidential election due in mid-2019 will
be the most open in Nigeria’s history. Open in the sense that neither of
the two main parties – the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the People’s
Democratic Party (PDP) – have a favoured candidate, given that President
Muhammadu Buhari looks unlikely to run for a second term. The election
is open also because of the tenuous alliances holding both parties together.
In the opposition PDP, Ahmed Makarfi’s dissident faction has stepped
up its campaign against the group led by Ali Modu Sheriff. The two sides
are locked in court battles, after which the loser may decamp and start
a new party. In the APC, there have been reports about mysterious meetings
overseas between ex-vice-president Atiku Abubakar and ex-governor
of Lagos State Bola Tinubu about leaving the party to form a breakaway.
Uncertainties about Buhari’s health may have changed their calculations.
Tinubu sees himself as a mentor to vice-president Yemi Osinbajo, who
served as finance commissioner in the Lagos State government. If Buhari
steps down and Osinbajo becomes a caretaker president ahead of the 2019
elections, that would change the stakes in the APC’s presidential primaries.
Senate president Bukola Saraki is a top presidential contender after
the code of conduct tribunal dropped charges against him in June
over claims he had made a false declaration of his assets. He will still face
a government bid to appeal the decision. Other top contenders are Kaduna
State governor Nasir el-Rufai and former defence minister and Kano
State governor Rabiu Kwankwaso. But most favoured by political insiders
is former speaker of the house of representatives Aminu Tambuwal,
who has nurtured good relations across the political spectrum. As a veteran
politician in Abuja tellsThe Africa Report: “Sometimes in Nigeria, it’s the
candidate with the fewest enemies who wins.” P. S.Fellow travellers on the road to 2019
40 POLITICS