The Economist Europe – July 22-28, 2017

The EconomistJuly 22nd 2017 25

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RAPPLING to comprehend Donald

Trump’s populist seizure of their

party, some Republicans predicted it

would re-emerge as a champion of work-

ing-class whites. Others expected Mr

Trump to drop his proletarian shtick and

help deliver the tax cuts they had always

dreamed of. Republican senators’ failure to

repeal Obamacare, a long-promised part

of that tax-cutting hope, suggeststhe party

is no closer to working out who it repre-

sents, or what it is for. Republicans are in

control of every lever of government in

Washington, but so internally divided as to

appear incapable of governing.

The attempt to repeal Barack Obama’s

health-care regime—which Republican

congressmen had for seven years decried

as an existential threat to America—

reached the Senate after an earlier sham-

bles in the House of Representatives. The

House repeal bill was passed in May, at the

second attempt, despite having been re-

jected by 20 Republican congressmen. It

would have slashed Medicaid—govern-

ment-provided medical insurance for the

hard-up, which was expanded under Oba-

macare—and abolished a stipulation that

everyone must have medical coverage.

Senate Republicans promptly binned it;

Conservatives said it left too much of Oba-

macare intact, while moderates objected

in 32m more uninsured by 2026, as well as

leading to skyrocketing premiums. Aver-

age premiums for individuals bought on

the exchanges Obamacare sets up would

increase by 25% next year and then 50% by

2020, according to the CBO. Three moder-

ate senators, Ms Collins, Shelley Moore

Capito of West Virginia and Lisa Murkow-

ski of Alaska, slammed the ruse. “I did not

come to Washington to hurt people,” Mrs

Capito tweeted.

This debacle will have big conse-

quences, not least for health care. Having

seemingly failed to repeal Obamacare,

moderate Republicans want Mr McCon-

nell to find a bipartisan way to address its

shortcomings, includingshallow insur-

ance markets and rising premiums for mid-

dle-classpolicy holders. Fury on the left

with Mr McConnell’s divisive tactics

would not make that easy. Even so, a Re-

publican senator claimed to know of ten

Democratic senators ready to deal, and the

fact that ten Democrats are up for re-elec-

tion next year in states that voted for Mr

Trump, including Indiana and West Virgin-

ia, makes that plausible.

Yet Mr McConnell, though not opposed

to a bipartisan fix, may have more pressing

concerns. He has always seemed less inter-

ested in health-care reform than in the fil-

lip scrapping Obamacare might provide

for the wider conservative agenda—espe-

cially its cherished tax cuts, part-funded by

the $772bn Mr McConnell hoped to cut

from Medicaid. With a series of unavoid-

able distractions looming—including bud-

get negotiations and an impending fiscal

crunch, which Congress must raise the

debt ceiling to resolve—he may now prefer

to drop health care and move on to tax. But

that effort, in which he faces another intra-

to the fact that it threatened to deprive 23m

people of medical insurance over a de-

cade. But Senate Republicans’ own propos-

als, contained in two draft billshatched,

with telling secrecy, by Mitch McConnell,

the Republican leader, were little better.

According to the Congressional Budget

Office (CBO), the second iteration, which

stalled on July 17th, would have resulted in

22m fewer insured within a decade. Both

bills were wildly unpopular—only 17% ap-

proved of the second. They were opposed

by both moderate Republicans, led by Su-

san Collins of Maine, and conservatives,

led by Rand Paul of Kentucky. Given that

Mr McConnell could afford to lose no

more than two votes to maintain his

party’s majority, a vote on the bill was

postponed after John McCain of Arizona, a

two-time presidential candidate, was

forced to undergo eye surgery for what lat-

er turned out to be brain cancer. The bill’s

fate was sealed when two more conserva-

tives, Jerry Moran of Kansas and Mike Lee

of Utah, came out against it nonetheless.

Capito said kaput

There followed an effort, ordered by Mr

Trump and dolefully launched by Mr

McConnell, to repeal Obamacare without

having an alternative in place. The CBOes-

timates that a straight repeal would result

Republicans and Obamacare

Can’t live with or without it

WASHINGTON, DC

Internal division does not hurt Republicans in elections. Governing is different

United States

Also in this section

26 Republican ideas

27 The voter-fraud commission

28 California caps and trades

29 School for mayors

29 Presidential appointments

30 Lexington: Gerrymander v

Terminator