36 Middle East and Africa The EconomistJuly 22nd 2017
2 Rwanda, where the writing on all the fit-
tings, from elevators to shampoo dispens-
ers, is Chinese; or ata roundabout in cen-
tral Accra, where a crew of Chinese
labourers are repairing the road.
This flow of Chinese money and work-
ers has prompted some to gush that China
is becoming Africa’s most important eco-
nomic partner, and others to fret that it is
the new colonial master. In a recent report
McKinsey, a consulting firm, looked at five
measures of Africa’s economic connection
with the world: trade, investment stock, in-
vestment growth, infrastructure financing
and aid. It found that China is among the
top four partners in each of these. “No oth-
er country matches this depth and breadth
of engagement,” it enthused.
Yet others are more sceptical, arguing
that many overestimate the sums that Chi-
na is investing in or lending to Africa, be-
cause they add up pledges rather than ac-
tual flows. A close parsing of the data by
David Dollar, an economist, finds that Chi-
na accounts for only about 5% of all exist-
ing investment in Africa, and a similar
share of new investments. America’s in-
vestment stock is twice as much.
“The notion that China has provided an
overwhelming amount of finance and is
buying up the whole continent is inaccu-
rate,” he argues. That matches with work
by Deborah Brautigam, who leads the Chi-
na Africa Research Initiative at Johns Hop-
kins University. She found that little more
than half of announced Chinese loans to
Africa actually materialised.
Yet look beyond official loans or the
work of big Chinese state-owned compa-
nies, and there are signs of a deeper Chi-
nese involvement. McKinsey’s work sug-
gests that there are as many as 10,000
Chinese companies operating in Africa,
90% of them privately owned. Many also
reported earning juicy returns, in some
cases enough to pay back their invest-
ments in less than a year. Many said they
planned to keep investing because of the
plentiful opportunities to make money.
Yet even as those small firms make
money, it is far less certain that Chinese in-
vestments in big infrastructure such as the
railway line linking Mombasa’s port and
Nairobi in Kenya will ever show a return;
there is even less chance of recovering the
cash sunk by Chinese state-owned firms
into poorly governed places such as Ango-
la and the DemocraticRepublic of Congo.
In this China seems to be repeating many
of the mistakes made by Western donors
and investors in the 1970s, when money
flowed into big African infrastructure pro-
jects that never produced the expected eco-
nomic gains. In a decade or so China may
find itself in the position the West once did,
of having to write off many of their loans
to African governments. Unless of course
those sleek navy ships in Djibouti are ever
put to use collecting overdue debts. 7P
OLITICS is the survival of the fittest,
and Nigeria is no exception. “The Hye-
nas and the Jackals will soon be sent out of
the kingdom,” the first lady, Aisha Buhari,
wrote on Facebook on July 10th, in re-
sponse to a senator who had described her
husband as “the absent Lion King”. Mu-
hammadu Buhari hasbeen in London be-
ing treated for a mysterious illness since
May 7th, after spending a seven-week stint
there earlier this year. His only recent com-
munication has been a few written state-
ments mourning deceased politicians.
Despite many rumours, Mr Buhari is
probably not dead himself. The vice-presi-
dent (and acting president), Yemi Osin-
bajo, rushed to London for a few hours last
week. On his return he said his boss was re-
covering fast and would be back “very
shortly”. But the beasts are circling, in the
expectation that it will be one of them who
gets to contest the next presidential elec-
tion, due in February 2019.
Mr Osinbajo, who was previously La-
gos state’s attorney-general, will automati-
cally take over if the president resigns or is
declared incapacitated. His “godfather”,
Bola Tinubu, is probablythe mostpower-
ful politician in Nigeria’s south-west (Mr
Tinubu, a Muslim, had to forgo the vice-
presidency before the 2015 election as it
was deemed politically toxic for bothnames on a ticket to be of the same reli-
gion). Mr Osinbajo, a Christian pastor who
has said he is on loan from his church, has
also been cultivating his own brand. When
on tour he makes sure to be photographed
chatting with market traders, hugging chil-
dren and flying in for the funerals of de-
parted politicians. “The fact that he is per-
ceived as someone who is very loyal to
Buhari definitely helps him,” says Chris
Ngwodo, an analyst.
However, northern politicians will
want one of their own to step in to any va-
cancy. There is an unwritten rule that the
presidency rotates between north and
south, and the northerner Mr Buhari has
only served two out of his potential eight
years (assuming he were to be re-elected).
The reform-minded governor of Ka-
duna state, Nasir El-Rufai, was once seen as
Mr Buhari’s heir. But his intolerance of dis-
sent, including the banning of a Shia orga-
nisation after at least 347 of its members
were massacred bythe army in December
2015, has seen him fall from favour. Chris-
tians, meanwhile, accuse Mr El-Rufai of
siding with Muslim herders over lethal
clashes with farmers in southern Kaduna.
Atiku Abubakar, a wealthy former vice-
president, is likely to contest any primary
of the ruling All Progressives Congress
(APC) party. However, he isdogged by cor-
ruption allegations and has already run
unsuccessfully for president four times.
Another possible candidate is the Sen-
ate president, Bukola Saraki. The former
governor of Kwara, a state in Nigeria’s
“Middle Belt”, was not the APC’s choice to
lead parliament. He was nonetheless elect-
ed with the backing of opposition party
senatorsin June 2015. “He’s about as savvy
as they come,” says a ruling party source.
But the northern elites reportedly do
not see Mr Saraki as one of them. And
though a tribunal recently threw out a case
accusingthe politician, who owns a multi-
million-pound house in London, of not
properly declaring all his assets, the gov-
ernment is appealing.
If Mr Buhari is too ill to rule but refuses
(or is unable) to resign, government minis-
ters and a medical panel set up by Mr Sa-
raki would have to agree to remove him.
The president of the Senate could strike a
deal to become Mr Osinbajo’s deputy, says
Matthew Page, a former American dip-
lomat. Or he could wait for the presidential
primaries in 2019, and run himself. The hy-
enas are not short of options. 7Nigerian politicsThe lion at bay
ABUJA
Would-be successors to the ailing president are circlingOsinbajo the loyal