The biggest pattern – the ENSO cycle,
with its twin poles of El Nino and La
Nina – is well known. ENSO describes
the movement of warm water and
the strength of tradewinds across
the Pacific Basin. It’s a complicated
beast, and we’re still not sure which
of the atmosphere and the ocean is
the chicken and which is the egg. But
not to worry; it breaks down pretty
simply for large-scale seasonal surf
forecasting.
El Nino is where tradewinds
weaken and even reverse and run
a much stronger and lower storm
track for the North Pacific during
the Hawaiian winter. If chasing
big surf in Hawaii or P-Pass or
anywhere on the west coast of
America is your thing, you want an
El Nino weather pattern.
La Nina sees tradewinds
strengthen, and warm water pushed
across our side of the Pacific Basin.
That means more tradewind swells
for Australia, more cyclones, more
lows and troughs and other goodies
for the east coast crew. The ENSO is
a major seasonal and yearly pattern.
Patterns come in smaller intra-
seasonal scales, too. The ability to
identify and track these meaningful
patterns is one of the most important
forecasting skills there is.
The main reason the old salts at
your local could stick a finger to thewind and proclaim a big swell was
due on the next new moon was their
ability to identify these patterns. If
you can figure out the patterns for
your area, you can figure them out
for other areas up and down the
coast, and then you’ll start to pick
one of the sweetest cherries available
in forecasting... something I call, “the
spaces in between”.
One of the main consequences of
the surf forecast internet age is an
increase in the amount of hype over
certain swells. It is inescapable and
insufferable, and no matter what is
written here... it’ll remain with us
until the robot apocalypse, where
the leftover humans are scuttling the
roads like cockroaches, clutching a
blanket and an old single fin.
That is the big contrast with the
pre-internet age when the hype came
after the swell event. The surf mags
would forensically examine big swells
with words and photos. But there is
life before and after the hype, and this
is where the independent forecaster
can enjoy what we all love: less
crowded surf.
If you can predict when the next
swell is going to hit, you can be
there in the water surfing the front
edge of said swell in total solace for
hours in the middle of any built-up
area like the Gold Coast or Sydney.
Imagine that!Filipe Toledo is like one of those
toys where you wind him up,
and then watch him spin. His
surfing and the Supertubes
section go together like fish and
tartare sauce
PHOTO: THURTELL
PHOTO: RESPONDEK