sea state is the maximum amount
of energy that can be imparted to
the ocean for a given wind strength
blowing over the same area for a
sufficient time.
Time is the key element here.
Whenever you see a semi-stationary
fetch, even if it doesn’t look like much
in the way of wind speeds or the wave
periods seem low, you can bet the
waves will punch above their weight,
especially if that fetch covers a broad
expanse of ocean, like most tradewind
fetches do.
So basically, the most innocuous
high-pressure system sitting over the
top half of New Zealand, if allowed
to sit there for a week or more, will
develop the sea state. This developed
sea state is capable of deliveringoverhead waves to the east coast.
Meanwhile, the internet weather
models, unable to pick up on the
fully developed sea state, have no
idea there is swell even in the water.
So, while the herd follows the
internet forecasts and stays in bed,
you can be wetting your rails in
overhead dawn patrol walls, before
the word is even out!Stationary high pressure systems sitting
in the Tasman often fly under the radar of
forecast sites thanks to the fully activated
sea state, as seen here
PHOTO: SCOTT