4 Special reportCanada The EconomistJuly 27th 2019
2 Mr Trudeau has tried to live up to that
prophecy. His parliament legalised assist-
ed suicide, and cannabis for recreational
use. His government has let people identify
themselves as neither male nor female on
their passports. It has moved efforts to
fight global warming from the periphery of
policy to the centre, compelling provinces
to put a price on carbon emissions or sub-
mit to a federal scheme. It has continued
Mr Harper’s policy of liberalising trade, but
tilted leftwards by redistributing income
and tolerating budget deficits. In a general
election in October, Canadians will decide
whether they want four more years of Mr
Trudeau’s liberal policies.
The prime minister has been a promi-
nent figure internationally, too. Like his fa-
ther, Pierre, who held the job in the 1960s,
1970s and 1980s, befriending Fidel Castro
and recognising communist China before
America did, he has been willing to stand
apart from American foreign policy. While
Mr Trump seeks to undermine international institutions and alli-
ances, Canadian diplomats are striving to shore them up. As its
neighbour to the south retreats into a more insular mindset, less
willing to take on responsibilities in the world, Canada continues
to push its liberal international agenda. It has taken a lead in de-
fending the World Trade Organisation and co-chaired the Equal
Rights Coalition that defends gay rights.
While Mr Trump has repelled refugees, Mr Trudeau has wel-
comed them, notably Syrians and gay people from Chechnya. The
world has seen him defy political fashion for four years. With the
election approaching, it will be watching “in order to determine
whether doing the right thing ends up with the right results”, says
Bill Morneau, the finance minister.
At home, Mr Trudeau is not getting an easy ride. A conservativebacklash has gathered. On the environ-
ment, the recently elected premiers of On-
tarioandAlberta reject his carbon tax. In
JuneQuebec, the French-speaking prov-
whichoftengoes its own way, passed a
lawbanningsome public servants, includ-
teachersandpolice, from wearing reli-
gious symbols. This Francophone chal-
lenge to Mr Trudeau’s cuddly multi-
culturalismmaybe echoed in the national
electioncampaign.
ManyliberalCanadians are concerned
thattheangrypolitics which put Mr Trump
inofficecouldcome to Canada. Michael
Adams,a pollster, published a book in 2017
called“CouldItHappen Here?”. The title
appears on a red “Make America Great
Again”baseballcap. Last year Ontario elect-
edasitspremierDoug Ford, an elite-bash-
ing,tax-slashing conservative who is the
closestCanadahas to Mr Trump. The coun-
try is not exempt from “the backlash
among white men about cultural and eco-
nomic changes that are diminishing their power”, says David
Herle, who managed the losing campaign of Mr Ford’s Liberal Party
opponent, Kathleen Wynne. Mr Trump’s trade tantrums have also
added to a sense of economic insecurity, even though unemploy-
ment in Canada is near its lowest level since the 1970s.
Some Canadians object to Mr Trudeau’s relentless political cor-
rectness, and worry that his liberalism has an illiberal side (see box
overleaf ). The prime minister has not been helped by a couple of
scandals, notably one in which his office has been accused of try-
ing to press the attorney-general to drop a corruption investiga-
tion against a large engineering firm.
All of this has helped the federal Conservative Party, led by An-
drew Scheer, to match the Liberals in opinion polls. Mr Scheer is
not Mr Trump. Yet the views of his political base on issues such as
climate change, immigration, gun control
and foreign policy can seem closer to those
of the American president than to those of
Mr Trudeau. Under Mr Scheer, Canada
would certainly present a different face to
the world.
Mr Trump has given Canada a wake-up
call, which reverberates beyond trade. Dif-
ferent parts of the country are responding
differently. Among business people it has
stirred ambitions to match America be-
yond the basketball court. Policymakers
have scrambled to counter America-first
economic policies. Many Canadians have
renewed appreciation for what makes their
country distinctive. The challenge facing
Canada is “how do we preserve what’s es-
sential about our country in the face of an
unpredictable and hostile environment?”,
says Robert Bothwell, a historian.
Faced with a Trumpian reality to the
south, Canada is asking questions about its
own identity. Has Mr Trudeau succeeded in
selling his liberal vision of the nation? And
can it continue to be a liberal beacon to the
world? The answer will partly depend on
whether, economically, the model works
for its people. 71,000kmDetroitRiver Washington,D.C.VancouverWhitehorseNew YorkPortlandWindsorCalgaryTorontoQuebec
Montreal
Ottawa Roxham RoadSeattleDetroitUNITED
STATESGreenlandCANADA Newfoundland
andLabradorNorthwest
TerritoriesARCTIC
OCEANPACI F I C
OCEANHudson
BayBritish
ColumbiaNewBrunswickP. E. I.
Nova
Washington ScotiaAlaskaMinnesota Michigan New YorkManitobaNorthwest
PassageTrans
Mountain
pipelineKeystone
Line 3NunavutOntarioAlberta
Saskat-
chewanOregonQuebecYu ko nRapid Lake
reserveEdmontonIqaluitYellowknifeSt John’sRegina
WinnipegFredericton
HalifaxHistoric
treatiesTerritory covered by
modern treaties with
indigenous groupsChurchillKeeping up with the neighboursSources:Nationalstatistics;UnitedNations;
World Economic Forum; Edelman2019 orlatestCanada United States
Population 37m 329m
GDP $2trn $21trn
Life expectancy 82 years 79 years
Share of foreign-born 22% 14%
population, % of total
Gun homicides 0.7 12
per 100,000 people
Happiness ranking 9 19
(out of 156 countries)
Competitiveness ranking 12 1
(out of 140 countries)
Trust in government, 61% 33%
% of informed public
Maple syrup production, 13m 4m
gallons