The EconomistJuly 27th 2019 Special reportCanada 112 do better what it has done well in the past: defend international
norms, cultivate alliances and work with like-minded “middle
powers” to encourage good behaviour by big ones. The new chal-
lenge “doesn’t require Canada doing something entirely different,
but doing more and better,” says Roland Paris of the University of
Ottawa, a former adviser to Mr Trudeau.
In Pearson’s multilateral spirit, Canada leads the “Ottawa
group” of 12 countries and the European Union, which is trying to
solve a crisis caused by America’s refusal to allow judges to be ap-
pointed to the wto’s appeals panel. It is an active member of the
“Lima group” of mainly Latin American countries, which is trying
to restore democracy to Venezuela. To meet the Arctic threat, Mr
Trudeau announced in May that the coastguard would get two new
ships to join the navy in patrolling the region.
But Mr Trudeau’s critics say he is a poor man’s Pearson. Canada
waited two years to heed a plea by the unto send transport helicop-
ters to help keep peace in Mali, says Richard Fadden, a former head
of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. The legalisation of
cannabis falls foul of international drug conventions, also part of
the rules-based order. A test will be whether Canada wins one of
five seats on the unSecurity Council due to become vacant in 2021.
“It’s not a trophy,” says Mr Trudeau. “It’s a way of having an impact
and affecting global debate in a positive and meaningful way.”
If Mr Scheer defeats him, the tone, if not the substance, of for-
eign policy is likely to change. He claims to be harder-nosed about
China than Mr Trudeau is. And he would move Canada’s embassy
in Israel to Jerusalem, one way that world leaders show they want
to be friends with President Trump.
To the relief of most Canadians, Mr Trudeau has improved the
relationship with America. Mr Trump’s threat to scrap nafta,
which governs most trade between America, Canada and Mexico,
caused Canada to mobilise as if for a national emergency. The
prime minister’s office set up a dedicated war room. Ms Freeland
became, in effect, minister for relations
with America. Canadians from across the
political spectrum lobbied mayors, gover-
nors and Mr Trump’s inner circle, bran-
dishing reports on how many of the 9m
American jobs that depend on Canadian
trade each state would lose.
Eventually, with similar effort from
Mexico, the three sides hammered out the
usmca, which resembles naftaand will
replace it, assuming Congress ratifies the
new agreement. In May Mr Trump lifted ta-
riffs on Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminium. Mr Trudeau
says that relations are now “normal”. Even so, Canada cannot re-
lax. “The new normal for us is we have to have this elevated level of
outreach” to America, says Mr Paris.
Had Mr Trump paid a visit to Windsor, Ontario, where the sky-
scrapers of Detroit loom almost within touching distance across
the Detroit River, he could have seen for himself how intertwined
the two economies are, how determined those on both sides are to
intensify their relationships and how hostility and indifference
from Washington can gradually undermine them. About 7,000 lor-
ries, many laden with components or finished cars, cross the Am-
bassador bridge daily, the “largest single crossing in the second-
largest bilateral trade relationship in the world”, says Bill Ander-
son, director of the Cross-Border Institute in Windsor.Keep the nurses coming
Some 1,500 health workers commute across the river from Wind-
sor to Michigan every day. Out west, British Columbians head to
Washington state to load up on cheap electronics and petrol. In
border towns of Washington state, Canadians rent post-office box-
es to take delivery of shipments from Seattle-based Amazon. Yet
interchange is not as easy as it used to be. “When bars closed at
12.30 in Windsor you headed to Detroit. You didn’t know there was
a border,” recalls Bryce Phillips, head of the Windsor-Detroit
Bridge Authority, who grew up in the Canadian city.
Security tightened after the terrorist attacks on America on
September 11th 2001. American border officials scrutinised all tra-
vel documents and required drivers to open their car boots, creat-
ing long queues. The two countries worked to restore the former
ease of crossing, for example by introducing nexuscards, which
let pre-screened border-hoppers use a special lane.
The Trump administration reintroduced friction. In 2017 the
number of cars entering America from Canada dipped, even
though the Canadian dollar strengthened, a sign that Mr Trump’s
glower was putting off some. In the same year a border official in
Michigan misinterpreted a government statement to mean that
health workers could no longer commute from Windsor. It took 48
worrying hours to clear up the confusion, says Laurie Tannous, an
immigration lawyer. Canadian officials have been stricter during
the Trump presidency, she says. “It’s almost like retaliatory.”
Co-operation between national-level agencies on both sides is
not as good as it was, says Laurie Trautman of the Border Policy Re-
search Institute at Western Washington University. “If there are
four more years of Trump they will be strained even more.”
Yet interaction and integration are hard to stop. Oregon, Wash-
ington state and British Columbia are studying the feasibility of a
high-speed rail link between Portland and Vancouver. The nerd
bird, a sea plane, has been ferrying techies between Vancouver and
Seattle since last year. In Windsor construction has begun on a
new bridge across the Detroit river, costing C$5.7bn, to take the
load off the clogged Ambassador bridge. It will be financed by Can-
ada and is due to open in 2024. If Mr Trump menaces Canada again,
he will get pushback on the border. 7Relations with
America and
China are more
resilient than the
headlines imply