IT’S A GOOD
timtime to be a pop-e to be a pop-
ulist. Just ask Co-ulist. Just ask Co-
lomlombians, who bians, who
on Mon May 29 for the ay 29 for the
country’s presi-country’s presi-
dential elections voted through dential elections voted through
two political outsiders to the sec-two political outsiders to the sec-
ond round for the fi rst timond round for the fi rst time in e in
20 years.20 years.
In a nation that has never In a nation that has never
elected a leftist President—elected a leftist President—a a
rarity in Latin Amrarity in Latin America—erica—leftist leftist
Senator and formSenator and former Mer M-19 guer--19 guer-
rilla Gustavo Petro fi nished fi rst rilla Gustavo Petro fi nished fi rst
with 40.3% of the vote. Popu-with 40.3% of the vote. Popu-
list formlist former Bucaramer Bucaramanga manga mayor ayor
Rodolfo Hernández, a septuage- Rodolfo Hernández, a septuage-
narian Trumnarian Trump-like construction p-like construction
mmagnate who ran as agnate who ran as
an independent and an independent and
camcampaigned mpaigned mostly ostly
on Tik on Tik Tok, camTok, came in e in
second with 28.2% of second with 28.2% of
the vote, edging out the vote, edging out
the centrist formthe centrist former er
MMedellín medellín mayor and ayor and
elite favorite Federico elite favorite Federico
Gutiérrez.Gutiérrez.
Both Petro and Both Petro and
Hernández ran on Hernández ran on
anti anti establishmestablishment platforment platforms s
prompromising sweeping change, tap-ising sweeping change, tap-
ping into the public’s yearning for ping into the public’s yearning for
change in a context of widespread change in a context of widespread
dissatisfaction with the status dissatisfaction with the status
quo on the back of the COVID-19 quo on the back of the COVID-19
pandempandemic and worsening socio-ic and worsening socio-
economeconomic conditions. This dis-ic conditions. This dis-
content was on display last year content was on display last year
when a failed tax- when a failed tax- reformreform proposal proposal
triggered mtriggered massive street protests assive street protests
against the governmagainst the government. Petro ent. Petro
and Hernández will now face off and Hernández will now face off
in a runoff on June 19.in a runoff on June 19.
ON PAPER, ON PAPER, the ideologically amthe ideologically am--
biguous Hernández should have biguous Hernández should have
the advantage, since he can ap-the advantage, since he can ap-
peal to Petro’s own base of anti-peal to Petro’s own base of anti-
establishmestablishment voters but also to ent voters but also to
mmost conservative and most conservative and moderate oderate
voters who consider the ex-rebel voters who consider the ex-rebel
too far left. And because he has too far left. And because he has
just comjust come into national politics, e into national politics,
his namhis name recognition is bound to e recognition is bound to
soar. Petro, in contrast, has msoar. Petro, in contrast, has much uch
mmore limore limited roomited room to grow— to grow—
mmainly by mainly by moderating his tone to oderating his tone to
attract the few center- attract the few center- left voters left voters
who went for other candidates in who went for other candidates in
the fi rst round. the fi rst round.
The latest polls have Hernán-The latest polls have Hernán-
dez narrowly in the lead, but a dez narrowly in the lead, but a
Petro victory in the June 19 vote Petro victory in the June 19 vote
is within the mis within the margin of error. argin of error.
WWhereas Petro has had a long hereas Petro has had a long
political career as a mpolitical career as a memember of ber of
Congress, mCongress, mayor of Bogotá, and ayor of Bogotá, and
now three-timnow three-time presidential can-e presidential can-
didate, Hernández is didate, Hernández is
an unknown quan-an unknown quan-
tity. He’s refused to tity. He’s refused to
participate in presi-participate in presi-
dential debates and dential debates and
has never been the has never been the
subject of msubject of much pub-uch pub-
lic scrutiny, mlic scrutiny, meaning eaning
that voters haven’t that voters haven’t
been exposed to his been exposed to his
liabilities—liabilities—including including
a corruption inves-a corruption inves-
tigation, an assault that got himtigation, an assault that got him
suspended fromsuspended from his m his mayoral post, ayoral post,
and a record of controversial and a record of controversial
statemstatements. Ments. Moreover, in recent oreover, in recent
days he has reaped endorsemdays he has reaped endorsements ents
fromfrom the ruling class and the busi- the ruling class and the busi-
ness elites, which could dull his ness elites, which could dull his
anti anti establishmestablishment shine. ent shine.
WWhoever wins, two things are hoever wins, two things are
certain. The next President will certain. The next President will
represent a signifi cant departure represent a signifi cant departure
fromfrom recent Colom recent Colombian history bian history
and a rebuke of politics as usual. and a rebuke of politics as usual.
But lacking congressional mBut lacking congressional ma-a-
jorities and bound by high infl a-jorities and bound by high infl a-
tion and fi scal constraints, he will tion and fi scal constraints, he will
struggle to deliver solutions for struggle to deliver solutions for
the problemthe problems Coloms Colombians will bians will
have elected himhave elected him to fi x. Change is to fi x. Change is
easier said than done. easier said than done. THE RISK REPORT BY IAN BREMMER
Colombia’s election shows
staying powstaying power of populismer of populism
The next
President
will
represent
a rebuke
of politics
as usualHealthy. Educated. Safe.
Let’s get there together.When we all connect,
we make things better
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around the world.
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