A6 EZ RE THE WASHINGTON POST.SUNDAY, JUNE 12 , 2022
with their communication. While
Turning Point USA does not en-
dorse candidates, Kirk also con-
trols an affiliated group, Turning
Point Action, as well as the recent-
ly launched Turning Point PAC,
which already has a multimillion
dollar war chest.
“I went to an event for Pompeo
in L.A., an event in New York and
have also met with him,” said Dan
Eberhart, a GOP donor. “But I’ve
been invited to 15 or 20 events he’s
doing. He is barnstorming the
country. He is very active.”
A person familiar with
Pompeo’s political operation said
he’s focused “almost exclusively”
on helping candidates in races this
November but has been engaged
in conversations about the pros-
pect of running for president — a
decision he’ll make with his family
at a later time.
The political team of Sen. Tim
Scott (R-S.C.) has been seeking to
expand his donor base, reaching
out to major contributors far from
South Carolina with what one re-
cipient described as “highly so-
phisticated and personalized
communications.” He recently
spoke at the Reagan library and
has appeared in both New Hamp-
shire and Iowa since 2020.
Sen. Rick Scott, who is running
Republican Senate midterm ef-
forts, has been building his own
fundraising lists by promoting an
extensive set of national policy
plans, which have attracted criti-
cism from both Republicans and
Democrats. He revised the plan
this week, dropping a proposal to
require “all Americans” to pay
some income tax.
Similarly, Cotton, who has been
to Iowa and spoke at the Reagan
library, has been revising his slide
presentation, which at once point
featured five policy areas that ex-
plain why he’s electable. “He is
diligently putting together a foun-
dation to run,” said Eberhart, the
donor who has met with him. “He
is very dialed in on New Hamp-
shire.”
Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson,
a former homeland security un-
dersecretary, has been among the
most diligent potential candi-
dates, planning a trip to New
Hampshire, appearing repeatedly
on Sunday news talk shows and
recently founding a nonprofit,
America Strong and Free, to pay
staff and fund his policy efforts. He
said last month at a Wall Street
Journal event that the GOP needs
to de-link from Trump and “stay
away from the culture of personal-
ity.”
“There are going to be very few
people standing on the stage that
have the breadth of national secu-
rity experience that he has,” said
one Arkansas Republican opera-
tive who has tracked Hutchinson’s
activities. “He is a party guy, he
spoke at the convention in 2016.
He is also the first to say it is time
to move on.”
Hogan and Christie are also
aiming to test the party’s appetite
for moving on from Trump, as they
have both become frequent critics
of his behavior. A Post-ABC News
poll released in May found that 6
in 10 Republican and Republican-
leaning voters said party leaders
should follow Trump’s leadership,
compared with 34 percent who
wanted to take the party in a dif-
ferent direction.
Bobbie Kilberg, a Trump critic
and prominent Virginia donor
who has met with multiple would-
be candidates, said she was hold-
ing her powder dry for a decision.
“It’s going to be an intense 2023.
Let’s get through 2022, have a
good Christmas and then we can
regroup,” she said.the New Hampshire state party. In
addition to Cotton, Sens. Ted Cruz
(R-Tex.), Tim Scott (R-S.C.) and
Rick Scott (R-Fla.) spoke at the
event.
“There are a lot of good people
who are thinking about it and
would like to be president,” said
Kaufman, who has been involved
in presidential campaigns since
1980.
Trump and his allies have be-
gun preparing for an onslaught of
competition, as several of Trump’s
closest advisers continue to urge
him not to announce a campaign
before the midterm elections,
since they fear it would help Dem-
ocratic efforts to frame Senate and
congressional campaigns around
the divisive former president.
“I would be very surprised if
they run,” Trump said in an inter-
view earlier this year. But he has
begun asking advisers how he
should attack some of his former
Cabinet members and allies, as
well as candidates he previously
endorsed. DeSantis poses particu-
lar problems, two advisers said,
because he has gained such favor
with Trump’s base.
Internal polling by Club for
Growth and other private polls
show Trump easily winning pri-
maries at the moment in many
early states, though such polls are
historically a poor predictor of the
outcome two years out.
“I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t
run. All the polling shows he
would be the front-runner by a
country mile. The day that Trump
makes it clear he’s going to run — it
would be a mountain to climb to
beat him,” said Sen. Lindsey O.
Graham (R-S.C.), a frequent confi-
dant. “If it’s a policy election, he’s
in good shape. It’s his primary to
lose.”
Many potential candidates dis-
agree, pointing to a long history of
early front-runners for presiden-
tial nominations falling out of fa-
vor. Former Arkansas governor
Bill Clinton was not a contender in
some 1990 polling for the Demo-
cratic nomination. In June of
2006, Gallup found that 36 per-
cent of Democratic-leaning voters
supported then-Sen. Hillary Clin-
ton (D-N.Y.) for the 2008 nomina-Interviews with over a dozen
GOP operatives indicate he is not
clearing the field, and a range of
candidates plan to take him on
from different angles.
“They’re all going to run against
him,” said Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s
longtime pollster. “If you have the
former vice president running,
what does that say for the loyalty
argument?”
Some candidates and their
teams have made clear that they
plan to campaign on moving the
party beyond Trump, who contin-
ues to dominate early polling,
while the vast majority are simply
plodding forward without ad-
dressing the Trump question pub-
licly and in some cases continuing
to praise him. They have been
encouraged by growing concern
among deep-pocketed Republican
donors that another Trump run —
especially an announcement be-
fore the midterms — would help
Democrats.
At least six senators have made
appearances in Iowa or New
Hampshire already, joining for-
mer Trump advisers and appoin-
tees like Pence, former secretary of
state Mike Pompeo and former
ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Ha-
ley. Nine potential candidates, in-
cluding former New Jersey gover-
nor Chris Christie and Maryland
Gov. Larry Hogan, have spoken at
the Ronald Reagan Presidential
Library, laying out their vision for
the future of the party, with Rep.
Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), a prominent
Trump critic with a national pro-
file, scheduled to speak there on
June 29. Pompeo in particular has
been aggressive at working do-
nors and operatives, asking many
what he needs to do to win the
nomination. Pompeo has told oth-
ers he would run against Trump,
though he has not made a final
decision, people who have spoken
to him say.
“They are working hard at it,
some more than others,” said Ron
Kaufman, a Republican National
Committee member from Massa-
chusetts, who had a set of poten-
tial candidates over to his house in
March as part of a fundraiser for
REPUBLICANS FROM A
The shadow race is
underway for the GOP
presidential nomination
Republican Senate candidates
this year. The two have spoken,
according to two people familiar
with their interactions.
DeSantis has been picking up
support in far-flung places, best-
ing Trump in a recent straw poll at
a gathering in Colorado.
“I think DeSantis is the only one
besides Trump who has a chance
in hell. And I would bet a lot of
money on that,” said Darren Blan-
ton, a Dallas-based venture capi-
talist who served as an adviser to
Trump’s transition. “At first I
thought DeSantis had no chance
because he seemed more like an
introvert and strategist, but not a
charismatic celebrity, and I pretty
much told him that to his face. But
he has really impressed me by how
much better he has gotten.”
Blanton said potential candi-
dates have to show they can turn
blue-collar Democrats into Re-
publicans. “And I just don’t think a
pasty, old-school, dignified Re-
publican is ever going to do that
again,” he said.
Haley and Pompeo are both do-
ing one-on-one calls with major
donors, plugging fundraising
committees aimed at boosting
candidates in the midterms.
Haley in the past month has
promoted an upcoming retreat for
her group, Stand for America PAC.
Among the sums she has brought
in for endorsed candidates in-
cludes nearly $800,000 for Vir-
ginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin and
nearly $240,000 for Herschel
Walker, the Republican candidate
for Senate in Georgia, according to
a person familiar with her politi-
cal operation. She also went to
Mar-a-Lago recently to see Trump
for a brief meeting, people famil-
iar with the matter said, and has
said she will not run against him.
Pompeo — who prominently
campaigned against Trump’s en-
dorsed Pennsylvania Senate can-
didate, Mehmet Oz, who ended up
winning — has used his advocacy
for various congressional candi-
dates this cycle to pitch himself as
a 2024 contender, telling donors
that the “America First” agenda is
best embodied by a candidate with
a more broadly appealing profile.
He has met with dozens of donors
and begun hiring a team of advis-
ers.
In the last year, Pompeo
reached out to Charlie Kirk, the
leader of the influential conserva-
tive nonprofit Turning Point USA
and an ally of Donald Trump Jr.,
according to a person familiarspeak at its annual conference in
July.
In addition to the growing can-
didate competition, Trump is fac-
ing declining influence among the
Republican high-dollar donor
community who supported him in
2020, as many fear the risks of
another Trump candidacy, accord-
ing to multiple people familiar
with the discussions. In conversa-
tions with RNC Chairwoman Ron-
na McDaniel and others, some of
the party’s top donors have sug-
gested the party needs to move on,
according to the people.
“Republicans think he is declin-
ing in relevance and they want
someone else,” said one adviser
close to major Republican donors.
“But people feel like they have to
appease him. We are in the ap-
peasement phase.”
Some activists have com-
plained privately that he won’t
talk as much about inflation, gas
prices and other topics that they
view as the strongest lines of at-
tack against Biden. Christie, who
is eyeing a run, said people are
increasingly talking about issues
other than Trump’s preferred top-
ic: his false claims of a stolen 2020
election.
“As I travel around the country
campaigning for other Republi-
can candidates, there is more and
more doubt and disinterest re-
garding the president’s claims the
2020 election was stolen. They
care about the issues affecting
them,” Christie said in an inter-
view.
Pence views South Carolina as
key to his campaign, and has re-
peatedly traveled to meet with do-
nors and operatives in the state.
He also has met with some of the
party’s richest donors and flew to
Israel on megadonor Miriam
Adelson’s jet. Allies are eyeing a
spring 2023 announcement.
“At some point early next year,
they’ll get away and try to discern
where their calling is, and where
they’re being led to serve,” said
Marc Short, his longtime chief of
staff, referring to Pence and his
wife, Karen. “It won’t be based on
any other one person.”
But some donors and even allies
question whether Pence — who
refused Trump’s demands to at-
tempt to overturn the 2020 elec-
tion — can gain traction against
his former boss, and he has pri-
vately and publicly shown little
desire to attack Trump.
DeSantis has been quietly
building his fundraising networks
while grabbing national headlines
for his challenges to the Biden
administration and for his focus
on culture war issues. Without
mentioning Trump, he has told
donors, “No one’s nomination is
inevitable,” according to a person
to whom his comments have been
relayed.
Beating Trump’s 2020 margin
of three percentage points in Flor-
ida has become a key campaign
goal, according to three people
familiar with the conversations.
They said DeSantis’s wife, Casey, a
former television host and among
a small circle of confidants, wants
him to run for president. The cou-
ple believes that the governor’s
skills are uniquely matched to the
current political climate, and are
wary of waiting six years, by which
time the tides may have shifted.
DeSantis has not indicated if he
would defer a campaign if Trump
runs.
A spokesman for DeSantis’s re-
election campaign, David Abrams,
said the governor is “focused on
winning a resounding reelection
this fall in Florida because that’s
what’s best for the future of Flori-
da.” He called suggestions of other
motives “nonsense.”
Behind the scenes, DeSantis
and his team think they’ve over-
taken Trump with the party’s ma-
jor donors, according to an ally in
touch with the governor. A former
aide said DeSantis has spoken
about wanting to expand his dom-
inance in that realm, including by
getting a contribution from Peter
Thiel, the billionaire investor who
backed Trump in 2016 and has put
nearly $30 million behind a pair oftion, followed by 16 percent for
former vice president Al Gore. The
eventual winner of both the nomi-
nation and the presidency, Barack
Obama, did not yet rate.
The same pattern has haunted
Republicans. In June of 2006, for-
mer New York Mayor Rudy Giu-
liani led the Republican field in
Gallup with 29 percent support
among Republican-leaning vot-
ers. He would finish the primaries
two years later without winning a
single delegate. Then-Wisconsin
Gov. Scott Walker, who had polled
hear the top of the pack in 2015,
dropped out two months after de-
claring his candidacy.
In Iowa, which is expected to
host the first Republican caucus in
2024, political power brokers like
Bob Vander Plaats, the president
of the Family Leader, a Christian
conservative group, has been tell-
ing people that even if Trump runs
there is a good chance of a contest-
ed campaign.
“If you come at Trump from the
left — say a Mitt Romney approach
— I don’t think that would ever
work,” he said. “If you came at
Trump from the right — more like
a Pence or a Pompeo or a Ted Cruz
or a DeSantis — then I think peo-
ple would be willing to listen.”
After visits by Pence and
Pompeo in recent months, the
Family Leader has invited Fox
News Host Tucker Carlson toJABIN BOTSFORD/THE WASHINGTON POST
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during the first day of the Conservative Political Action Conference
on Feb. 24 in Orlando. DeSantis has grabbed headlines for his challenges to the Biden administration.ADAM DAVIS/EPA-EFE/SHUTTERSTOCK
Former secretary of state Mike Pompeo at the American Freedom
Tour on May 14. Pompeo has said he would run against Trump.MEG KINNARD/ASSOCIATED PRESS
Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley at a fundraiser in December
in Charleston, S.C. Haley has said she will not run against Trump.