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The Future of PC Processors
is Interesting—and Frightening
Maximum PC “Fast Forward” columnist Tom Halfhill
ponders the future of CPUs. His prediction: CPU power
will increase—but privacy may be sacrificed
It’s easy to predict what microprocessors will be like in 2006,
2010, and 2015: They’ll be small, black square things, just as they
are today. OK, that’s a bad joke, but it’s probably the most accu-
rate prediction you’ll ever get. Even Intel avoids making forecasts
beyond six years.
But at least we can narrow the possibilities. Don’t expect a
fundamental shift from conventional semiconductor technology
before 2015. We can rule out pure optical circuits, quantum logic,
carbon nanotubes, and other exotic technologies in mainstream
PC processors. In 2015, I believe we’ll still be using 20th century
semiconductor technology, albeit with 21st century refinements.
In the near term, we know multicore PC processors are com-
ing from both AMD and Intel, as I predicted way back in 1999. It’s
safe to say that dual-core PC processors will lead to quad-core
PC processors and beyond, because chips with four or more
processors are already fairly common in the server and high-per-
formance embedded markets. By 2010, I’m betting it will be com-
mon for mainstream PC processors to have at least four cores.
They will also be able to concurrently run multiple operating
systems as independent virtual machines.
The speed gap between CPUs and memory will continue to
widen, so we’ll see larger caches and more caches on chip. By
2010, on-chip Level 3 (L3) caches will be commonplace and L4
caches will be popular. By 2015, we might see on-chip L4 caches
and off-chip L5 caches.
Security is a huge trend. The recent addition of the no-execute
(NX) bit to x86 processors is only the beginning. By 2010, all
CPUs will have stronger mechanisms for insulating user pro-
grams and operating systems. These mechanisms will work
at the chip level, making it far more difficult for the PCs of the
world’s largest companies to be subverted by moderately clever
teenage hackers. Not coincidentally, the new security features
will also thwart illegal exchanges of copyrighted digital content,
such as music and videos.
Even spookier: By 2010 or 2015, I expect some “spyware” to
be hidden in CPUs. Already today, some scanners, printers, and
image editors can recognize if you’re counterfeiting money, and
many cars have data recorders like the black boxes in airliners.
Similar capabilities in CPUs will assist law enforcement and help
corporations administer their computer policies. This trend will
spark an underground revival of old PCs that are considered
“digitally clean”—it may be that the most popular processors of
tomorrow might be the ones we have today. n
Pentium II Klamath
The first CPU to use a
slot-type packaging, the
Klamath was widely used
in the 440LX chipset and
had 512kB of L2 cache.Celeron A
This low-cost screamer
overclocked like a mofo,
and was loved by cost-
conscious enthusiasts
everywhere. Its FSB ran at
a decent 66MHz, and it was
offered in speeds ranging
from 300 to 533MHz.Pentium III Coppermine
This audacious CPU broke
the gigahertz barrier and
also became the first
Pentium CPU to include
on-die L2 cache.AMD Athlon Classic
As the first CPU to
challenge Intel’s supremacy
in the “performance”
category, the Athlon meant
AMD meant business. It
used a Slot A architecture
and had impressive
floating-point performance.^Athlon Palomino/XP
The chip of choice
for gamers and penny
pinchers, the Athlon XP
had a spectacular price-
to-performance ratio
compared to Intel silicon.
It marked AMD’s move to
copper interconnects and
debuted at 1300MHz.Duron Spitfire
Named after the World
War II fighter plane,
this .18 micron chip
sported a measly 64k of
L2 cache, but was still
able to outpace Intel’s
“Coppermine” Celeron. It
debuted at 600 and ran all
the way up to 950MHz.CPU Predictions: In 2010...
1. Quad-core CPUs will be the norm
2. We’ll have on-chip L4 caches and off-chip L5 caches
3. Rigorous built-in security will guard against hacking
4. DRM will be implemented at the processor level
5. Built-in black box functionality will aid law
enforcement and eliminate some aspects of privacyCPU’s Greatest Hits
Processor milestones in the Maximum PC
Hall of FameNOVEMBER 2004 MA XIMUMPC