Conclusions, Predictions, and Prognostications 229
first does not seem to either enhance or detract from a couple’s
chances of having a satisfying marriage later. Numerous surveys
have reported that marital satisfaction was roughly the same for
couples who had and had not cohabited prior to marriage.
One well-publicized study conducted by Brigham Young Uni-
versity researcher Jeffrey Larson argued against this, however. He
found that couples who live together before marriage have a 50
percent greater chance of divorce than those who don’t. He theo-
rized that cohabiters are poor marriage risks to begin with because
they are too commitment phobic, too accustomed to demanding
personal freedom, and too willing to cut and run when things
don’t work out.
Is marriage dead? By 1998, only 56 percent of adult Americans
were married compared with nearly 75 percent as recently as
- Anyone reading all these wild statistics about divorce and
our unraveling social structure might well ask, “Is marriage
dead?” John Naisbitt, the author of the cult classic book Mega-
trends, doesn’t necessarily think so. As he puts it: “We believe that
after decades of disruption, the family is moving into a new era of
stability. The family is more important than ever. We realize how
much we need each other.”
It is also interesting to note that the somewhat-trite phrases that
characterize the human potential movement (such as “becom-
ing your own person,” or “finding yourself”) were vastly more
trendy during the 1970s and 1980s than they have been during the
present decade. Instead, the recent problems of our nation regard-
ing economics, social values, personal and national security in an
era of terrorism, etc., seem to have focused people’s attention on
more immediate concerns, such as keeping their jobs and feed-
ing their families. The probing of one’s inner psychic conflicts has
been relegated to a slightly lower level on the hierarchy of human
needs and values. This may well argue for a return to a strength-
ened institution of marriage.
In any event, marriages certainly seem to have become more
“egalitarian” nowadays. Stacy Rogers is a sociologist at the Penn-
sylvania State University and the co-author of Alone Together: How
Marriage in America Is Changing. Rogers’ new book compares the
attitudes of married couples in 1980 to those in 2000. According to