THE NUMERATION OF EVENTS 195ment, was a strike by nearly 100,000 “auto” drivers in the city of Hyderabad in early 2003 over a
number of issues involving the effect of government policy on them. It was called off after four
days “following a categorical assurance by the Home Minister... to resolve several of their
demands.”^34 Such an outcome may or may not be indicative of success, for “categorical assur-
ances” cannot be equated automatically with appropriate action. According to Shiv Sena and the
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the July 2003 Mumbai bandh, protesting the bomb explosion blamed
on agents of Pakistan, was a success. Yet, as one observer noted, its “success” was “to bring
India’s commercial capital to a standstill,”^35 and, as another contended, its “success” was more
self-serving because its real objective was simply to attract attention in order to facilitate victory
in the forthcoming election.^36
Another case is the April 2003 ten-day nationwide strike by the All India Motor Transport Con-
gress (AIMTC), a group of transport owners, with a ten-point charter of demands that included
stable fuel prices, exemption from the Value Added Tax, and a variety of other goals. By the second
day, the AIMTC claimed that the strike had taken 2.7 million commercial vehicles off the road.^37
When no progress was made in talks with the national government, the AIMTC president flew to the
city of Hyderabad and met with the chief minister of the state of Andhra Pradesh, N. Chandrababu
Naidu. Naidu promised to serve as an intermediary and speak with the prime minister about the
AIMTC issues.^38 His party, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), was an important part of the governing
coalition in India at the time. By the eighth day, some groups of truck owners in the states of Andhra
Pradesh, West Bengal, and Orissa called off the strike, though the AIMTC claimed it was still on.^39
In Andhra Pradesh, what was called the Joint Action Committee said the strike was over, though
major groups such as the AP Lorry Owners Association, the AP Mini Transport Association, and
the Hyderabad Lorry Association said they would continue with the strike.^40 There was also a split
between AIMTC, representing transport companies, and the All India Confederation of Goods Ve-
hicle Owners Association (ACOGOA), which represents truckers: The former had ten demands and
the latter, three.^41 Eventually, the AIMTC said it had gotten agreement to nine of ten demands.^42 Yet,
the government maintained that it had not accepted the AIMTC demands and senior members of the
AIMTC called the agreement a “sellout” to the government.^43 An editorial in The Hindu questioned
whether the truckers had gained anything, expressed disappointment with most of the state govern-
ments for their indifference while people suffered, and agreed with a comment attributed to the
president of the AIMTC that the AIMTC should never strike again.^44
The success of virtually all protests is ambiguous, not simply because there are so many differ-
ent ways it may be measured. Some years ago the Indian Express reported from the city of
Thiruvananthapuram in the state of Kerala on the protests against the state government’s educa-
tion policy: “Destruction of public property, police firing resulting in loss of precious human
lives, lathicharge [when police chase citizens with long sticks], blocking ministers, indefinite
hunger strike by student leaders and class boycott.... Are there any winners in this battle? Cer-
tainly, the government has not won it. But can the pro-LDF [Left Democratic Front, a coalition of
parties led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist)] students confidentially say that they had
scored a decisive point over the government?”^45 Even this report is based on only a few of the
possible repercussions that might affect success—directly, indirectly, long-term, short-term. All
of this informational ambiguity is lost in an events tally.
Problems in Characterizing “Events”
A major problem with country-level data, such as protest frequencies, is that they contain no
information about what is happening in the constituent parts of the country. Even if an accurate