12 Leaders The EconomistNovember 2nd 2019
A
fortnightbeforeChristmas,winterfêtesandschoolna-
tivity plays will be put on hold as village halls are once again
converted into polling stations. Britain faces its third general
election in little more than four years, a result of the fact that to-
day’s mps cannot agree on how to leave the European Union—or
even whether to leave at all. Boris Johnson, the Conservative
prime minister, promises that with a majority he will “get Brexit
done”. Jeremy Corbyn, his Labour rival, proposes a second refer-
endum, with the option to call the whole thing off.
That alone would represent a momentous choice. Yet in what
is being billed as the Brexit election, more is at stake than Brit-
ain’s relationship with Europe. The far-left Mr Corbyn promises
to put the state at the heart of the economy, whereas Mr John-
son’s Tories seem to be moving towards a more freewheeling
form of capitalism. At the same time, both potential prime min-
isters would pick at the ties between the nations of the United
Kingdom. Britain’s Christmas contest is its most important in
living memory. And with volatile polls, upstart parties and new
ideological axes that define voters, it is the least predictable, too.
We have long argued that a second referendum would be a
better way to break the Brexit logjam. The Commons is split over
Mr Johnson’s deal—possibly fatally—just as it was over the rath-
er better one negotiated by his predecessor, Theresa May. The
clearest and fairest solution would be to ask vot-
ers whether they would take his terms over the
arrangement they already have, as eucitizens.
But Parliament has proved as incapable of or-
ganising a second referendum as it has of agree-
ing on anything else. And rather than see his
plan amended, Mr Johnson has chosen an elec-
tion. For now, a referendum is off the table.
Voters face a confusing and deeply unsatisfy-
ing choice. Parties have set out Brexit proposals to cater to every
taste: an instant no-deal exit, courtesy of the Brexit Party; a bare-
bones, “Canada-minus” deal with the Tories; a second referen-
dum from Labour; and cancelling Brexit altogether, via the Liber-
al Democrats. However, voters must balance these policies
against the rest of the parties’ programmes, which in some cases
are extreme. Labour, in particular, proposes a new economic
model in which the state would gain enormous clout. Some Re-
mainers have taken to saying that Mr Corbyn, who is likely to en-
ter Downing Street only with the support of other parties, would
lack the votes to push through the more dangerous parts of his
manifesto. That is wishful thinking. Even a minority Labour gov-
ernment could do profound damage (see Briefing). Whether the
next prime minister is hard-Brexiteer Mr Johnson or socialist Mr
Corbyn, the economy will take a beating.
Both men would also tug at the fraying union. Mr Johnson’s
Brexit plan would push Northern Ireland ever closer to the Re-
public of Ireland. Mr Corbyn would probably rely on the backing
of the Scottish National Party to get to Downing Street. The price
of its support would be a prompt second referendum on Scottish
independence. Polls suggest the nationalists might well win.
Voters who want the United Kingdom to stay together, or who
dislike both socialism and Brexit—potentially, rather a lot ofthem—willthusbeleftholdingtheirnoseastheymark their bal-
lot paper. And a great many more will feel despair at the result.
The next prime minister will enter Downing Street having won
well under half the vote. If the outcome of the Brexit referendum
left 48% feeling hard done by, this election will leave a large ma-
jority feeling that they have lost.
Who will be on that losing side? The race is wildly unpredict-
able. Polls put the Tories roughly 12 points ahead of Labour. But
the polls are volatile. Only a few months ago the Tories were
briefly in third place. Mrs May started her campaign in 2017 with
a 20-point lead and five weeks later lost her majority. Since then
things have become more complex still, with the birth of the
hardline Brexit Party (which will take votes from the Tories) and
the rise of the pro-Remain Lib Dems (who will pinch more sup-
porters from Labour). Under the first-past-the-post system, bet-
ter adapted to two dominant parties, the make-up of Parliament
may bear little relation to the national breakdown of the poll,
adding to the disillusion of voters.
Last time Britain held an election—only two years ago—we la-
mented the “missing middle” in its politics. Since then the im-
provement in the fortunes of the Lib Dems, to whom we gave our
conditional backing, has broadened the menu somewhat. But
the two main parties have become even less interested in the
centre ground. Elections used to be contests to
capture the median voter. But almost no one
holds a middling position on Brexit, so both La-
bour and the Tories are pitching to the extremes
(see Britain section). Even the Lib Dems, regret-
tably, have adopted a strategy of pursuing only
hardcore Remainers. This promises to be the
most divisive election in many years.
What is more, the divide is along a new axis.
The old left-right split, along economic lines, has gradually been
giving way to a new fissure, defined in terms of culture. Brexit
has accelerated this, redrawing the political battleground. The
Tories are going for working-class seats with a promise of hard
Brexit and social conservatism. Labour, meanwhile, is going for
well-off, urban areas, preaching Remain and social liberalism.
The tactics may not work—Mrs May tried something similar in
2017, and found that working-class northerners were still allergic
to the Tories. But the more the parties head in this new direction,
the more polarised politics will become. Questions of economics
can often be settled by a compromise. Disagreements about
identity and culture are much harder to resolve.
Another divisive contest may be worth it if it at last provides
an answer to the great Brexit question. But there is a possibility
that even this latest democratic exercise fails to produce a deci-
sive outcome. The rise of small parties has made it hard for any-
one to win a big majority. If Mr Johnson is returned with only a
small one, he will be at the mercy of the hardline Brexiteers in his
party, just as Mrs May was. And if Mr Corbyn enters Downing
Street with the support of other parties, he too may find it hard to
solve the great riddle. The coming election will have profound
consequences for Britain. But don’t be surprised if a year from
now the country is still arguing about how to “get Brexit done”. 7Here comes the Brexit election
But Britain’s unpredictable vote will be about a lot more than its relationship with EuropeBritish politics