50 Britain The EconomistNovember 2nd 2019
2 Party, which has pledged to quit the eu
without a deal.
In a Brexit-dominated election, few
swing voters will switch between these two
opposing groups. But plenty of switching
could go on within them, says Chris Han-
retty of Royal Holloway, University of Lon-
don. Recent years have seen unprecedent-
ed political promiscuity, as Remainers
have joined the Lib Dems and Leavers the
Brexit Party (see chart on previous page). In
this sense, the median voters have not dis-
appeared, but fragmented: parties can still
chase the centre ground, but only within
the confines of their own sectarian group
of Remainers or Leavers.
Not all are convinced that Brexit identi-
ties are here to stay. British politics has
been marked by extreme volatility of late.
Only half of voters backed the same party in
the three elections between 2010 and 2017,
according to the British Election Study. It is
not inevitable, then, that Brexit will be the
issue that cements hitherto floating voters
into one part of the political spectrum, ar-
gues Mr Roberts of YouGov. Talk of an elec-
tion has already led to a sharp drop in vot-
ers highlighting Brexit as the main issue
facing Britain, with other topics, such as
the health service, rising in salience.
Others think the median voter has not
gone missing but is simply being misiden-
tified. Labour has stopped triangulating on
the economy, instead leaping leftward with
promises of a much bigger state (see Brief-
ing). The party’s bet is that the median vot-
er is in fact perfectly happy with its left-
wing economic policy.
The Tories have taken a similar ap-
proach to social issues. A reluctance to
compromise runs through their policies on
law and order, which are unapologetically
illiberal. The party is betting that the medi-
an voter is alive and well, and simply more
socially conservative than previously
thought. What looks like a failure of medi-
an-voter theory is often a failure of com-
mentators to spot where the true median
lies, argues James Morris, another pollster.
Despite their sketchy record on the top-
ic, wonks are still on the hunt for the new
Mr Median. Past elections have seen par-
ties target archetypes such as “Mondeo
Man”, “Worcester Woman” and “Pebble-
dash People”. The 2019 contest has already
coughed up “Workington Man”, a rugby-
league-loving, Leave-voting northerner
who, by coincidence, holds many of the
same views as Onward, the Tory think-tank
that discovered him. Perhaps Workington
Man will yet hold the balance of power. But
in the polarised campaign ahead, parties
seem more intent on rallying their own
side than on venturing into the increasing-
lytreacherousmiddleground. 7I
twasatarget date to meet, “do or die”. Yet
though Boris Johnson said he would
rather be dead in a ditch than extend the
October 31st Brexit deadline, this week he
endorsed an eudecision to push the date
back to January 31st 2020. The focus on the
election called for December 12th may have
disguised this humiliating climbdown, but
it is sure to be highlighted by opponents in
the campaign.
For all the government’s (now paused)
£100m ($120m) publicity campaign to pre-
pare for Brexit on October 31st, it has been
clear for weeks that postponement was
likely. Mr Johnson surprised many by se-
curing a new deal on October 17th. But the
chances of its being ratified in time for an
orderly Brexit at the end of the month were
always small. Indeed, Labour’s leader, Je-
remy Corbyn, refused to back an election
because of the risk of no-deal if there were
no extension. Only with no-deal off the ta-
ble did he deem an election acceptable.
The eu’s decision was motivated in part
by the likelihood of such an election. Yet
the new deadline is uncomfortably close.
Despite winning parliamentary approval
on October 22nd for the second reading of a
new withdrawal agreement bill by fully 30
votes, Mr Johnson chose to pull the legisla-
tion in favour of his early election. Yet
when the new parliament meets shortly
before Christmas there will be barely 20 sit-
ting days left to get the bill through before
January 31st.
What happens will depend, of course,
on the result. If Mr Johnson wins a major-
ity, he will push ahead quickly with the bill.
But if his majority is small, he may still run
into difficulties, especially with possible
substantive amendments. It is worth re-
calling that in October 1971, mps voted by a
majority of 112 to approve the principle of
joining what became the eu. Yet less than
four months later the margin for the subse-
quent European Communities Act had
shrunk to eight votes.
If Mr Johnson does not win a majority,
the withdrawal agreement presumably
falls. Labour wants to renegotiate his deal
and put it to the people in a new referen-
dum, with Remain as an option on the bal-
lot. The Liberal Democrats propose simply
to revoke the Article 50 Brexit request,
thoughtheywouldbelikelytosupporta
referendumiftheycannotachievethis.So
wouldmostothersmallparties.
Yetalthoughanelectionthatdoesnotproduce a Tory majority is now the clearest
route to a second referendum, it is hard-
core Remainers who seem most glum.
Their expectation that Mr Johnson would
find it impossible to get a new Brexit deal
has been dashed. So have their hopes of
getting a “People’s Vote” before an election.
It was fitting that the campaign for such a
vote chose this week to indulge in a bout of
bloodletting and sackings redolent of the
splits in Monty Python’s “Life of Brian” be-
tween the different factions fighting for the
liberation of the people of Judea.
The bigger point about Brexit is that,
contrary to Mr Corbyn’s claim, no-deal is
not off the table. It is not just that the Janu-
ary 31st deadline, which the euwill be re-
luctant to extend again, is close. It is also
that, even if the withdrawal agreement bill
becomes law, new deadlines will loom.
Talks on a future trade relationship with
the eu cannot realistically begin until
March. Such a complex trade negotiation
usually takes many years. And since it will
no longer be conducted as part of the Arti-
cle 50 divorce, but rather under Article 218,
any deal will have to be ratified by all euna-
tional and several regional parliaments, in-
cluding Wallonia’s.
It looks highly unrealistic to expect this
to be done by the end of the transition per-
iod, which broadly freezes the status quo,
in December 2020. That period can be ex-
tended to December 2022, but a request to
do this must be made before July 1st. So
within a few months, the prime minister
will again face a familiar, agonising choice:
does he ask for an extension of the dead-
line, or does he let Britain leave the euwith
no deal at the end of 2020? Mr Johnson
makes much of his promise to “get Brexit
done” after the election. Yet for most of
2020 Brexit will remain top of the political
agenda, no matter who wins. 7Brexit is put off yet again. But the risk
of no-deal has not gone awayBrexit and the electionOf deadlines and
cliff edges
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