PAGE
7
24
FORTUNE.COM // DECEMBER 2019
HOW WE DID
Taxes Are In, Almonds Are Out IN 2019
What’s on the up—and what’s no longer cool—in 2020.
ON TARGET
Forecasting the
year’s hottest
pop stars is not
Fortune’s bread-
and-butter, but last
year we tipped a
little-known Lizzo
for greatness in
- On our core
beat, we predicted a
strong year for Nike,
Obamacare plans
turning a profit, and
the trade war esca-
lating through 2019
before a tentative
breakthrough at the
end of the year.
IN THE BALLPARK
Tesla would have
delivered a $35,000
car were it not
for a federal tax
credit being halved
in 2019—but we
weren’t far off at
$39,000 for a base
Model 3. We also
saw a turbulent year
for Facebook but in-
correctly predicted
it would impact
Instagram.OFF THE MARK
We correctly
predicted the New
England Patriots
would make it to the
Super Bowl (they
won), but we were
overly bullish on the
Boston Red Sox, who
missed the postsea-
son. We thought the
S&P 500 would have
a down year, but
barring catastrophe,
it will finish 2019
at or near record
highs. And we put
too much faith in
Capitol Hill’s ability
to pass a bipartisan
infrastructure bill.Fortune
Crystal BallCRYSTAL BALL CONTRIBUTORS: Eamon Barrett, Lydia Belanger, Daniel Bentley, Scott DeCarlo, Kath-
erine Dunn, Nicole Goodkind, Robert Hackett, Matt Heimer, Emma Hinchliffe, Rachel King, Ellen McGirt, Jake
Meth, David Meyer, McKenna Moore, David Z. Morris, Aaron Pressman, Jeff John Roberts, Lucinda Shen, Anne
Sraders, Phil Wahba, and Bernhard WarnerALMOND MILKLike soy milk
before it, buyers of nondairy
milks will abandon the watery
and tasteless almond milk,
flocking instead to the more
pleasing texture of newer
alternatives.NATURAL GAS The U.S. has
a glut of natural gas from the
shale boom, but trade tensions
have hampered demand.
Prices, already at historic
lows, will sink further.PHILANTHROPYPolitical writer
Anand Giridharadas’s crusade
against philanthropy—he
argues governments, not
billionaires, should be
spending that money—will
gather momentum.TIKTOKWith the New York
Times dissecting every meme
that pops up on the video-
sharing app—killing “okay,
boomer” in a matter of days—
it won’t be long before teens
flee to pastures where their
parents and reporters can’t
spoil things.LATE-STAGE VALUATIONS
The WeWork IPO disaster will
ripple through the private
capital markets, with late-
stage valuations being brought
back to reality.NETFLIXStranger Things and
The Crown have to do the heavy
lifting in a content catalog that
was once prestige but is now
increasingly padded out by
low-cost reality television.BANANAMILKNot banana milk,
but Bananamilk. The latest faddy
plant-based milk is made with
bananas, sunflower seeds, and
cinnamon. And, yes, it tastes like
bananas, if you were wondering.NUCLEAR POWERThe 2019 HBO
series Chernobyl reminded us all
of the devastating consequences
of a nuclear accident. But
demands for low-carbon energy
and the endorsement of Bill Gates
will see more countries exploring
new, safer reactors.WEALTH TAXESRegardless
of who wins the Democratic
nomination, the notion that the
wealthiest should give more
back to the country will gain
traction in the party. But enough
Democratic billionaires will run
for office to quash it.HOUSEPARTYThis video group-
chat app aimed at teens was
acquired by Fortnite-maker Epic
Games earlier this year. Rather
than make video calls, users can
drop into video chats when their
friends are online.PROFITS Wall Street gets
more conservative, with traders
putting their money behind
companies that, shockingly,
actually make money.DISNEYBob Iger’s bet that
owning blue-chip franchises and
intellectual property will win the
digital content wars pays off. In
comparison, Hulu, Netflix, and
Amazon are bringing knives to
a lightsaber fight.