NEWSWEEK.COM 23
IMPEACHMENT
with her on an ambitious energy bill that the Alas-
ka senator has been pushing for three years. He also
told Trump to knock off the juvenile name-calling
of Romney, which other senators found distasteful.
“[McConnell] has stressed to the president that he
thinks he can keep the caucus together, but Trump
needs to help,” says a Senate source familiar with
McConnell’s thinking. “He can’t just demand loyal-
ty and expect to give nothing back. That’s not how
this is going to work.”
The passionate partisanship that has kept Repub-
licans aligned with Trump until now might work
against the president and McConnell. University of
Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato notes that
“the nationalization of politics—how people feel
about the president—is bleeding down the ballot
to an extreme degree.” In 2016, every state with a
Senate race voted for the same party for senator and
president—the first time that’s happened since 1912,
when the era of popular voting for the Senate be-
gan. And as Sabato says, “Impeachment may be the
ultimate nationalizing event” for Senate members.
To understand the implications, consider the
GOP senators up for reelection in purple swing
states: first-term Senators Cory Gardner of Colora-
do, Martha McSally of Arizona, and Joni Ernst of
Iowa. The first two are in races viewed as toss-ups; in
Colorado Trump is deeply underwater and in Arizo-
na only slightly less so. If the nationalization thesis
holds, it could be risky for Gardner and McSally to
vote to acquit an increasingly unpopular president.
Senator Ernst at this point is a slight favorite to
be re-elected in Iowa, but the race will be tricky.
Trump’s trade war with China has hurt the state’s
agricultural sector. Ernst also, associates say, has
complained about Trump’s boorishness: the hush
money payments to a porn star, the Billy Bush “lock-
er room talk” video. She publicly has been support-
ive of Trump but privately isn’t much of a fan.
If she defects, it could prompt some others—who
are currently saying all the right things to the White
House—to consider it, too. Tom Tillis of North Car-
olina is in a race considered a toss up. Trump won
North Carolina in 2016, but is no lock next year.
This is the scenario the Trump White House dreads,
and for good reason. The risk is not, at this point, that
enough GOP senators will defect to oust him—at least
not, again, based on what’s currently known about the
Ukraine affair. The risk is that even if he’s acquitted,
,7&28/'%(5,6.<
)25*$5'1(5$1'
0&6$//<72927(
72$&48,7$'((3/<
Unpopular President.