Leaders 9T
oday’s europe owesitsexistencetotheUnitedStates.Amer-
ica fought two worldwarsonEuropeansoil;Americandiplo-
macy was midwife to whatbecametheEuropeanUnion;Ameri-
can arms protected westernEuropefromSovietinvasion;and
American statesmen oversawGermanunification.Now,ina dra-
matic plea to all Europeans,France’spresident,EmmanuelMac-
ron, has warned that AmericaiscuttingEuropeloose.Theold
continent is “on the edgeofa precipice”,hewarns.Unlessit
wakes up, “we will no longerbeincontrolofourdestiny.”
In his Elysée Palaceoffice,MrMacronspoketoTheEconomist
in apocalyptic terms (seeBriefing).nato, thetransatlanticalli-
ance, is suffering from“brain-death”,hesays;Europeneedsto
develop a military forceofitsown.Theeuthinksofitselfasjusta
market, but it needs toactasa politicalbloc,withpolicieson
technology, data and climatechangetomatch.PastFrenchpresi-
dents have argued thatEuropecannotrely onAmerica,and
should look to Franceinstead.MrMacronisnotjustrehashing
this view. He believes thatAmericaandEuropehavesharedin-
terests and has workedtirelesslytokeepgoodrelationswith
President Donald Trump.Buthearguesthatforthefirsttime
America has a presidentwho“doesnotshareourideaofthe
European project”. AndevenifMrTrumpisnotre-elected,his-
torical forces are pullingtheoldalliesapart.
American priorities are changing. When
President Barack Obama,whowasintentonpiv-
oting towards Asia, chosenottopunishtheuse
of chemical weaponsinSyriaitsignalledthat
America was losing interestintheMiddleEast.
Mr Trump’s recent abandonmentofAmerica’s
Kurdish allies in Syrianotonlyreinforcedthis,
but also undermined nato. Americadidnotin-
form its allies, and Turkey,a natomember,
promptly invaded Syria.“Strategicallyandpolitically,”MrMac-
ron says, “we need to recognisethatwehavea problem.”
Asked whether heisconfidentthatanattackononenato
member would today beseenasanattackonall—theideathat
underpins the alliance’scredibility—MrMacronsaysthathe
does not know. He acknowledgesthatnatothrivesoperation-
ally, but he calls for Europe“toreassesstherealityofwhatnato
is in the light of the commitmentoftheUnitedStates.”
Europe, he says, hasyettograsptheimmensityofthechal-
lenge ahead. It still treatstheworldasifcommerceandtrade
alone were able to ensurepeace.ButAmerica,theguarantorof
world trade, is becomingprotectionist.Authoritarianpowersare
on the rise—includingRussiaandTurkeyonEurope’sborders.
While America and Chinaspendvastsumsonartificialintelli-
gence, which they seeasanessentialcomponentoftheirhard
power, the eudevolvestoomuchsaytoindustry.MrMacron
warns that slow-moving,head-in-the-cloudsEuropemustopen
its eyes and prepare itselffora tougher,lessforgivingworld.
It is an astonishinglybleakpicturefora centristEuropean
politician and an avowedinternationalist.Butitisalsounusu-
ally thought-through and,asfarasMrMacronisconcerned,a
spur to action. It is hardtooverstatethescaleofthechangeheis
asking from his fellowEuropeans.
Takedefence.MrMacronthinksthathisnew European Inter-
ventionInitiativeandtheeu’s PermanentStructured Co-opera-
tion,underpinnedbytheEuropeanDefenceFund, can integrate
militaryoperationsandboostEurope’scapabilities, by implica-
tionprovidinga foundationforEurope’spost-natodefence. But
these building-blocks are rudimentary. America’s departure
wouldleavevastholesinareaslikeairandmissile defence, intel-
ligenceandsurveillance,andaerialrefuelling. Its military bud-
getistwiceaslargeastherestofnato’scombined. European
governmentswillbereluctanttoplugthegap, since they have
otherpriorities.Itmaybeeasiertoadaptnato, so that it both
protectsEuropeandisalsomoreusefultothe United States.
Andthenthereisdiplomacy.MrMacron thinks Europe can
bestestablishitsglobalinfluenceasa power that mediates be-
tweenthegorillasofChinaandtheUnitedStates. Its role will be
“tostopthewholeworldfromcatchingfire”,he says. A first step
wouldbetogeta griponitsownregionbyrebuilding relations
withRussia—ataskthatheacceptscouldwell take a decade.
Again,however,thatambitionassumesa unity of purpose
thattheeuseldomachieves.Manyofitsmembers tend to shun
hardpowerfora foreignpolicyfocusedon human rights and
commerce.AsMrMacron’sRussianproposal illustrates, power
politicsrequiresyoutodealwithpeoplewhose actions you de-
plore.Forhim,realpolitikisnecessary for Euro-
peanvaluestoprevail.Itisnot clear his fellow
Europeanleaderswouldagree.
Lastisindustrialpolicy. Mr Macron wants
the statetotake strategicdecisions over key
technologies, and favours a policy to foster
European champions. This tends to channel
fundsandcontractstopolitically connected in-
cumbents.A betterwaytocreate a thriving tech-
nologyecosystemwouldbetoencouragemore competition. If
MrMacronwillnotembracethat,whyshould others?
Theeu’s formulaisunique:anarrangement between states,
withoutanyhegemon,thatkeepsthepeace.But how do you get
27 countries—plusBritain,a big powernowin the eu’s departure
lounge—toagreetobuildfullyfunctionalarmed forces, let alone
convinceEurope’sfoesthattheywouldever be used? Mr Mac-
ron’scritics scoffthatheis“drunkonpower”. Some countries,
includingPolandandtheBalticstates,would be alarmed at the
ideaofpartingwithAmericaandpursuingdetente with Russia.
Others,includingGermany,ItalyandSpain,are too embroiled in
domesticwoestoentertaina grandglobalvision.
Plentyoftimesinthepast,piouscallsfor Europe to make its
weightfeltintheworldhaveturnedouttobe empty. This time,
MrMacronargues,mustbedifferent.Heis asking his fellow
leaderstoimaginehowEuropewillthrivein a dangerous world
withouta cast-ironAmericanalliance.How should they deal
withRussia,withtheconflictandreligious fundamentalism
roilingtheMiddleEastandnorthAfrica,andwith the authoritar-
ianchallengeofChina?Hedeservesananswer. 7A continent in peril
Europe is “on the edge of a precipice”, says France’s president. Is he right?Leaders
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