2019-11-09_The_Economist

TheEconomistNovember 9th 2019 49

1

vernon coaker, the La-
bour mpfor Gedling, in the
suburbs of Nottingham,
proudly brandishes a leaf-
let put out by the Conserva-
tives. On it, a grinning Mr
Coaker is surrounded by
the stars of the European
Union’s flag, above a cap-
tion:“Lastweek, your Labour Member of
Parliament voted against Brexit.” The leaf-
let seems to have backfired. “I get a lot of
people coming up and saying thank you,”
says Mr Coaker. “They think it’s me, rather
than a Tory attack-leaflet.”
There is a danger for the Conservatives
that their broader campaign in Gedling,
and places like it, could backfire in the
same way. The seat—a marginal, Brexit-
backing constituency in the Midlands—
has been held by Mr Coaker for 22 years,
during which it has been a perennial target
for the Tories. It is the sort of place that the
Conservatives ought to win in December if
they are to get a comfortable majority in
Parliament. Yet polling by Survation for
The Economistsuggests that they have some
catching up to do. Discounting don’t-

knows, Labour leads the Tories by 42% to

37% (see chart 1).

Gedling is the first of five constituen-

cies we plan to poll during the campaign.

National surveys have become less useful

since the Brexit vote, which has caused dif-

ferent parts of the country to swing in wild-

ly different directions. At the last election,

in 2017, the Tories gained ground in Leave-

backing places, while slipping in Remainer

areas. The old technique of applying a na-

tional poll to each seat no longer works.

Our constituency surveys have a higher

margin of error than national ones. But in

this most unpredictable of contests they

provide a guide to how different types of

seat might play out.

Gedling is a Tory tipping point. The

Conservatives are expected to lose most of

their 13 seats in Scotland, and could lose a

dozen or more to the Liberal Democrats in

England. That would leave them needing to

win 40 or so from Labour in order to get a

healthy Commons majority. That is

roughly where Gedling lies (see chart 2 on

next page). If it proves out of reach, it sug-

gests the Tories may end up with only a

small majority, or none at all.

What kind of voters does that mean

winning over? Gedling is “white, middle-

class, middle-aged,” says one Labour can-

vasser, shoving one of 43,000 leaflets

through doors around the constituency.

Pick any metric and Gedling appears

roughly in the middle. The benefit-claim-

ant rate is a little lower than average, at

3.4%. The typical worker takes home about

the same as in England as a whole.

For the Conservatives, there is a more

important statistic. About 56% of Gedling’s

voters backed Leave. Brexit is the spine of

the Tory pitch, says Tom Randall, the

party’s candidate, who campaigned for

Leave. By contrast, Mr Coaker supports a

second referendum. Mr Randall reasons

that those who voted Leave still want out,

and that even those who backed Remain

are receptive to Mr Johnson’s plea to just

The election

The Tory tipping point

GEDLING
The first in our five-part series of constituency polls finds the Conservatives
struggling to win in a crucial Midlands marginal

Playing catch-up

Britain,Gedlingconstituency

2019 generalelectionvotingintention*,%

Sources:Survation;

The Economist

1

0 20 40 60

Other

Lib Dem

Brexit Party

Conservative

Labour

Vote share, 2017

Central estimate

95% confidence interval

*Telephone poll of 409 adults

surveyed on November 4th.

“Don’t know ” and refused removed

swing

seats

Britain

50 PartypactsinNorthernIreland

51 Bagehot: Corbyn’s security questions

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