The Economist

The EconomistAugust 4th 2018 Europe 27

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VISITOR to Germany this summer will find a country living

well. Gentle chit-chat and the clink ofglasses murmur from

sun-dappled beer gardens. Barges laden with exports chug up the

Rhine. Prosperous vacationers travel to lakes and seaside resorts

in new cars and slick reliable trains. Yet striking up a conversa-

tion with one of these seemingly contented locals the traveller

may well be told that the country is going to the dogs. The discus-

sion might begin with disconsolate reflections on the national

team’s dismal performance in the football World Cup then find

its way on to the storm clouds over German industry political in-

stability and perhaps the difficulties of integrating the many mi-

grants who have arrived in recent years. Are they really talking

about the same country?

Pessimism comes easily to Germans. Gloom stalked their liter-

ature even before the traumas of the 20th century. “Simplicius

Simplicissimus” the first great German novel describes a peas-

ant wandering the devastated Holy Roman Empire after the Thir-

ty Years War; Goethe and his contemporaries imagined love-

struck romantics killing themselves in dark forests; Wagner’s Ring

Cycle ends with Valhalla in flames. Few Germans ever quite be-

lieve that calamity is not just around the corner reckons John

Kornblum a formerAmerican ambassador. He relays a tale of a

woman who came up to him in the street unbidden and warned

him that he would trip over and die if he failed to tie his shoelace.

This also expresses itself in perfectionism. Board a train with a

group of Germans and one will soon start grumbling about some

minutia: the temperature the disorderly storage of luggage a

brief delay. The same habits undergird Germany’s industrial suc-

cess. Its factories are staffed by conscientious workers who treat

each blemish as an abomination honing and re-honing produc-

tion processes until everything is in Ordnung(order).

Lately however this propensity to fear the worst has become

more pronounced. Perhaps it began when the upbeatWilkom-

menskultur(“welcome culture”) accompanying Angela Merkel’s

decision to keep the borders open to refugees in 2015 curdled into

a scepticism about how culturally compatible the newcomers

really were—with several high-profile cases of migrant crime fuel-

ling anxieties. Other factors include the rolling scandal over Ger-

man carmakers’ cheating in emissions tests and last September’s

federal election. That saw the far-right Alternative for Germany

(AfD) party enter the Bundestag for the first time and prompted

an unusually long and fractious process of negotiations resulting

in another uninspiring “grand coalition” under a weakened Mrs

Merkel. Then in June the Christian Social Union the chancellor’s

conservative Bavarian allies took her new administration to the

brink of collapse over disagreements on asylum policy.

So when the German team the reigning champions crashed

out of the World Cup during the group stages—under a coach Joa-

chim Löw widely compared to Merkel for his unflashy longev-

ity—it seemed to symbolise a land in trouble. “The Torn-Apart

Country” bellowed the cover ofStern a news magazine in the

week of the match. “Germany in Crisis: once upon a time there

was a strong country” ran a headline in Der Spiegel. Inside the

weekly diagnosed timidity and complacency in both the team

and the nation it represented.

The liberal hand-wringing intensified last month when Mesut

Özil the Turkish-German star midfielder resigned from the team.

Right-wing politicians and football bosses had questioned his

loyalties after he allowed himself to be photographed with Recep

Tayyip Erdogan Turkey’s despotic president. “I’m German when

we win and an immigrant when we lose” wrote Mr Özil. Bild the

tabloid that led the criticism of him increasingly portrays Ger-

many in doom-laden terms: a poorly governed country plagued

by criminals and barely tolerable Muslims.

Don’t fear the wurst

This is all getting out of hand. Pessimism and the associated per-

fectionism may be a German strength—but in moderation. And

that moderation risks succumbing to the latest bout of hyper-

ventilating self-denigration along with basic facts about the state

of the country. Germany’s economy for example is powering

ahead. Unemployment is at a record low and exports are boom-

ing. Its infrastructure is among the best in the world. Inequality

remains lower than in most other rich countries and the quality

of life higher (the fourth best in the world according to the UN’s

Human Development Index). German politics it is true is frag-

menting as in other European countries but Mrs Merkel remains

a sensible and decent leader and moderate forces still dominate.

And the immigrants? By April this year 26% of refugees admit-

ted to Germany since 2015 were in employment more than ex-

pected. Crime fell to a 30-year low last year with the largest long-

term falls among immigrants. If rightists are becoming more vo-

cal in their opposition to Germans of immigrant background like

Mr Özil it is because their monocultural vision of Germany is los-

ing the battle: the proportion of non-ethnic German residents is

rising fast with ever more reaching prominent roles in public life.

The share ofMPs with a migrant background rose from 3% to 9%

over the two elections to 2017. Germany’s most popular politi-

cian Cem Özdemir of the Greens is of Turkish origin too.

Germany overlooks such facts at its peril. Mainstream politi-

cians will not halt the rise of the AfDby parroting its inaccurate

portrayal of the country as an unruly shambles. The country

does not invest enough—threatening its competitiveness and con-

tributing to international economic imbalances—but pessimists

do not invest. Cracks in the liberal international order threaten

German interests but introspective gloom will surely prevent the

country from taking more responsibility for its preservation. For

its own sake and that of others it is time for Germany to lift its

gaze from its navel grasp the bigger picture—and cheer up. 7

Cheer up Deutschland

The biggest risk to Germany is excessive pessimism

Charlemagne