The Economist

30 United States The EconomistAugust 4th 2018

1

Lipizzans

Dancing horses in the Midwest

W

ITH their German and Austrian

ancestry midwesterners lovingly

cultivate many traditions brought from

theirHeimat. In autumn gallons of beer

and brats are consumed atOktoberfests

to the sound of polka bands. Christkindl

markets follow in December. But perhaps

the most rarefied and labour-intensive

import from Mitteleuropa to the Midwest

was the care of20 Lipizzans that Tempel

Smith a steel magnate brought from

Austria to Illinois 60 yearsago. Known

outside America as Lipizzaners they are

Europe’s oldest and finest horse breed.

Smith and his wife Esther fell in love

with the horses after seeing them per-

form at the Spanish Riding School in

Vienna. They soon built the largest pri-

vately owned herd of Lipizzans (peaking

at almost 500 horses in the 1980s) and the

only farm in America where Lipizzans

breed train and perform. “Tempel is very

important for us because we have few

private breeders in Austria” says Max

Dobretsberger who runs Piber the state-

owned stud farm in Austria that is home

to the breed.

Attired in green Austrian traditional

garb Mr Dobretsberger attended Tempel

Farm’s party to celebrate the 60th anni-

versary of the arrival of theLipizzansin

Illinois at the end of July. The white stal-

lions with their riders in Napoleonic red

blue and white uniforms and bicorne

hats performed the Capriole (in which

the horse kicks out dramatically with its

hind legs while making a tricky leap into

the air) the Courbette (forward jumps on

the hind legs) the Levade (sitting on the

hind legs with forelegs drawn up) and a

quadrille which involves four riders and

intricate pass-throughs. Mares and foals

were released into the arena for a run

around. The three- to five-month-olds

were dark: Lipizzans become pure white

as they get older.

Lipizzans have a rich history linked to

the Habsburg monarchy. But many

Americans learned about them by seeing

“Miracle of the White Stallions”a Disney

film released in 1963. This depicts the

dramatic rescue of Lipizzans confiscated

by the Nazis by American troops under

the command of General George Patton

an avid equestrian who feared the beasts

would be eaten by advancing Soviet

troops. The TempelLipizzans formed part

of the inaugural presidential parade for

Richard Nixon in 1969. They played a

similar role for Jimmy Carter Ronald

Reagan and Barack Obama.

Americans are known for bastardising

and spoiling Old World imports and this

is sometimes true (of pizza for example).

But midwesterners are making more of

aneffort to keepthe Lipizzanline going

than many private breeders in Europe.

The Europeans have grown keener on

Hanoverians and Holsteiners which are

exceptionally good at dressage competi-

tions. The good-natured sociable Lipiz-

zans were bred for pleasure not war—or

cut-throat Olympic competitions. And

the Christkindl markets of the Midwest

are nicer and less kitsch than many Ger-

man ones too.

OLD MILL CREEK

How the Habsburgs’ favourite horseconquered American hearts

S

TATISTICAL releases seldom propel

presidents onto the White House lawn

for press conferences. But on July 27th Pres-

ident Donald Trump was “thrilled” to an-

nounce that America’s economy grew by

the “amazing” rate of 4.1% in the second

quarter of 2018—enough to put it on track

for average annual growth of over 3%. Most

important he bragged “these numbers are

very very sustainable.”

Championing early estimates ofGDPis

a risky business because perky perfor-

mance can be revised away. In this case the

numbers were an advance release based

on incomplete data. Between 1993 and 2016

such estimates were revised by an average

of 1.3 percentage points. (Of course what

can go down can also go up.) The 4.1%

growth rate that Mr Trump found so stun-

ning was an annualised one which com-

pounds quarterlyGDPgrowth assuming

three more quarters of identical change.

That measure is prone to being bumped

around by one-off effects. The latest figures

were boosted by a temporary surge in ex-

ports of “foods feed and beverages” as ex-

porters of soyabeans raced to get their pro-

duce into China ahead of tariffs imposed

on July 6th. Though very strong the

growth was hardly unprecedented. It was

higher four times during Barack Obama’s

presidency (see chart on nextpage).

Yet the figures are not to be scoffed at.

Analysts were pleasantly surprised by the

composition of growth which appeared to

be fuelled by American shoppers buying

cars clothing and footwear as well as pay-

ing for housing and health care. Using a

smoother measure of growth which com-

pares quarterlyGDPwith the same quarter

a year ago the economy still grew in the

second quarter by a healthy 2.8%. If growth

for the year as a whole reaches 3% as the

president has boldly predicted few fore-

casters would be shocked. In April the IMF

forecast growth of 2.9%; the non-partisan

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) went

for 3.3%.

Mr Trump’s claim that a 3% growth rate

is sustainable is more dubious. The tariffs

he loves to impose could blow the econ-

omy off course. Even if they do not some

part of the economy’s buoyancy is proba-

bly only temporary and related to a cycli-

cal upswing. Some is probably due to the

recent tax cuts which the CBOestimates

will add around 0.3% to American GDP

this year and 0.6% next year. Beyond that

they reckon the positive effects will fade as

The GDP figures

Growing pains

The economy is as strong as Donald

Trump says—but perhaps not for long