The Economist

40 The EconomistAugust 4th 2018

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WEEK after a general election rocked by

suspicionsof fraud the dust isbegin-

ning to settle. It looks all but certain that Im-

ran Khan a former captain of Pakistan’s

cricket team will be sworn in as the coun-

try’s next prime minister. His party Paki-

stan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) will dominate

the legislature. The outgoing Pakistan Mus-

lim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Paki-

stan Peoples Party cried foul noting that

the army had come out strongly in Mr

Khan’s favour muzzling the press and

sending security agents to meddle in poll-

ing stations. But the fact that these two an-

cient rivals are now making common

cause as the loyal opposition suggests that

they accept the result. Few Pakistanis want

endless street protests and political tur-

moil. So the democratic show rolls on. For

the second time in Pakistani history power

has been democratically transferred.

For over two decades Mr Khan has

railed against a sleazy system of hereditary

politicians and patronage networks. Yet

this is the first time the PTIhas shown a

broadly national appeal in a country of

207m. Its 4m more votes than thePML-N

represent a notable popular victory one

only partly undermined by vote-rigging al-

legations. Most remarkable is the PTI’s win

in Karachi a city of powerful local ma-

chines and thuggish streetpolitics. The PTI

may yet wrest Punjab the country’s bread

basket and most populous province from

gotiating one will require finesse. Pakistan

is in hock to China which through a bally-

hooed China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

has promised $62bn of infrastructure

spending. This week America’s secretary

of state Mike Pompeo insisted that his

country would block anyIMFbail-out that

profited China. The task of stitching a deal

together will fall to Asad Umar Mr Khan’s

probable finance minister. He is a good

choice: the former head of Engro the coun-

try’s biggest private conglomerate Mr

Umar is reform-minded and admired.

The terms of an IMF deal will bring a

populist party down to earth—so much for

Mr Khan’s wild promises of an “Islamic

welfare state”. The next challenge is the

electricity sector. In office the PML-Ndid

much to fix Pakistan’s notorious blackouts

helped by China building new capacity.

But a tangle of debts among state genera-

tors energy suppliers and banks has been

exacerbated by theft from the grid. This can

be resolved by reducingsubsidies raising

energy taxes and recapitalising state enti-

ties. Mr Khan has long bemoaned Paki-

stan’s institutional decay. Renewal starts

with fixing the electricity mess.

Then come security and foreign policy.

Islamist violence marred the election and

is a constant threat to Pakistan. Meanwhile

the regional situation grows trickier with

rivalry between America and China and

China and India. That comes on top of

rocky relations with America itself the fes-

tering sore of war-torn Afghanistan to the

north-west and Pakistan’s age-old and bit-

ter animosity towards India.

Mr Khan would seem ill-suited for

these challenges. He has been more critical

of America especially over its use of

drones to kill jihadists than ofthe extrem-

ists themselves. And he is pally with an

army that is the chief obstacle to better re-

the PML-N. That would cap a remarkable

fall for the Sharif brothers: Nawaz the

“Lion of Punjab” who was prime minister

until last year and is now in jail facing cor-

ruption charges and Shahbaz Punjab’s

former chief minister.

Yes he Khan

Mr Khan who now commands about 115

seats in the National Assembly still needs

a handful of allies—independents and

smaller parties—in order to govern. The

PTI’s chief bankroller Jahangir Tareen has

been flattering independents by flying

them in to Islamabad the capital on his

private jet. The grubby promises to them

are the kind of thing Mr Khan used to de-

cry. His wooing of the Muttahida Qaumi

Movement orMQM the most unsavoury

of Karachi’s parties is making some PTI

leaders gag. But at least it means that Mr

Khan does not need radical Islamist parties

to form a governing coalition. Before the

election he pandered to zealots.

Meanwhile over the economy there is

no time to lose. Not for the first time an in-

coming government faces a balance-of-

payments crisis. The current-account defi-

cit has widened and the currency is sliding.

Pakistan imports three-quarters of all its

energy needs. Yet foreign-exchange re-

serves are down to just $9bn—barely two

months’ importcover. An IMFbail-out of

perhaps $12bn looks all but inevitable. Ne-

Pakistan’s new prime minister

A man no plan

ISLAMABAD

How will Imran Khan govern?

Asia

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