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February 2020 as it was doing too little to
tackle its funding of violent extremism.
Pakistan was also bailed out by the IMF
this summer for the 13th time in 30 years,
inflation is predicted to surge, and the
World Bank recently cut its economic-
growth forecast. “There’s a realization
that without an economy, Pakistan is
not going to have a military,” says Gareth
Price, senior research fellow at the Lon-
don think tank Chatham House.
A greater security risk seems to be the
anger and resentment simmering within
the Valley. Nearly 4,000 people, includ-
ing politicians, activists and journalists,
have been arrested, according to a Sept. 6
government report seen by Reuters,
and thousands remain in custody. On
Sept. 24, the National Federation of
Indian Women highlighted claims that
13,000 boys had been picked up and de-
tained, some for up to 45 days. “These in-
cidents instill a fear that goes very deep,”
Bhasin says. “Kashmir is not a monolith;
there will be a creative response, a peace-
ful response—and a violent response.”
A rise in homegrown terrorism in the
Valley is highly likely, Khan suggests.
“There’s lots of anger there. It is sharp
and fierce,” he says. “But when people
are defending their homes against Indian
attacks, we don’t call it militancy. We
would call them freedom fighters.”
Violence has already risen as India
dismantles the “iron wall” in Kashmir.
Cell-phone services were restored on
Oct. 14 (the Internet is still restricted),
but peaceful protesters are still being ar-
rested. On Oct. 16, five were killed: two
civilians, in attacks by suspected mili-
tants, and three alleged rebels, by Indian
forces. Four days later, shelling on both
sides of the boundary between India-
administered Kashmir and Pakistan-
administered Kashmir led to the deaths
of at least nine soldiers and civilians.
the repeal of article 370 “opens
the door to rejuvenate a moribund
economy,” the Indian ambassador to
the U.S. wrote in a September New York
Times column. But the clampdown has
hit hard; the Kashmir Chamber of Com-
merce and Industry estimates the shut-
down has already cost the region over
$1.4 billion. Although tourists are now
allowed in, the precarious security situ-
ation means the tourism and handi-
crafts sectors are unlikely to bounce
back fast. Classes have not resumed
at many schools and colleges. “We are
helpless. I want to teach, but I can’t
teach,” says a 46-year-old professor,
who asked for anonymity out of safety
concerns. “For some, it feels criminal to
go to school and study because there’s
so much anger and resentment.”
And Kashmir’s $1.5 billion apple
trade, which employs more than 3 mil-
lion people, suffered during the black-
out, which cut traders off from buyers.
Now, militants are targeting apple sell-
ers, pickers and drivers; within three
days in October, two people were shot
and another injured in two insurgent
attacks on the apple trade.
Yet the violence in the Valley hardly
represents a significant escalation, says
Ajai Sahni, executive director of the
Institute for Conflict Management in
New Delhi. “Kashmir has been a the-
ater of terrorism for over 30 years, and
the idea that the government’s recent
moves were going to bring violence to
an abrupt and sustainable end was vis-
ibly absurd,” he says. Ultimately, he
adds, a long-term political solution is
needed, one that allows the people of
Kashmir to address their grievances.
On Oct. 11, the state government
took out a full-page ad on the front
page of the newspaper Greater Kash-
mir. “CLOSED SHOPS, NO PUBLIC
TRANSPORT? WHO BENEFITS? Are
we going to succumb to militants?
Think!!!” it pleaded. But most Kash-
miris are not returning to business
as usual, either too afraid of violence
or determined to disobey New Delhi.
“There’s a collective sense of fear, hu-
miliation, hurt and anger,” Bhasin
says. “The natural fallout is that this
will erupt in different forms. The only
question is when.” —With reporting by
sanya mansoor/new yorK □
ATUL LOKE—THE NEW YORK TIMES/REDUX
