The Dictators’ Last StandSeptember/October 2019 141Even as Erdogan consolidated power in his own hands, he seized on
his ability to win elections to sustain the narrative that had fueled his rise.
He was the freely elected leader o the Turkish republic; his critics were
traitors or terrorists who were ignoring the will o the people. Although
international observers considered Turkey’s elections deeply awed, and
political scientists began to classify the country as a competitive au-
thoritarian regime, this narrative helped Erdogan consolidate support
among a large portion o the population. So long as he won, he could
have his cake and eat it, too: his ever-tightening grip on the system tilted
the electoral playing eld, making it easier for him to win a popular
mandate. This mandate, in turn, helped
legitimize his rule, allowing him to gain
an even tighter grip on the system.
More recently, however, Erdogan’s
story o legitimation—the set o claims
by which he justi es his rule—has be-
gun to fall apart. In 2018, Turkey’s econ-
omy nally fell into recession as a result
o Erdogan’s mismanagement. In mu-
nicipal elections this past March, Erdo-
gan’s Justice and Development Party () lost Ankara, Turkey’s capital,
and Istanbul, its largest city. For the rst time since taking oce, Erdo-
gan was faced with a dicult choice: either give up some o his power
by accepting defeat or undermine his story o legitimation by rejecting
the results o the election.
Erdogan chose the latter option. Within weeks o Istanbul’s may-
oral election, the Turkish election board overturned its results and
ordered a rerun for the middle o June. This turned out to be a mas-
sive miscalculation. A large number o Istanbulites who had previ-
ously supported Erdogan and his party were so outraged by his open
de ance o the popular will that they turned against him. The
candidate suered a much bigger defeat in the second election.
Having tried and failed to annul the will o the people, Erdogan
now faces the prospect o a downward spiral. Because he has lost a
great deal o his legitimacy, he is more reliant on oppressive measures
to hold on to power. But the more blatantly he oppresses his own
people, the more his legitimacy will suer.
The implications o this transformation extend far beyond Turkey.
Authoritarian populists have proved frighteningly capable o vanquishingIf the past decade has
been depressingly bad for
democracy, the next
one may well turn out
to be surprisingly tough on
autocrats.14_Mounk_pp_Blues.indd 141 7/22/19 5:52 PM