The Dictators’ Last Stand
September/October 2019 143
LEO CORREA
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history o democracy, which may both strengthen popular demands for
personal liberties and provide their people with a template for a demo-
cratic transition when an autocratic regime does eventually collapse.
All in all, the structural features on which political scientists usually
focus to gauge the likely fate o authoritarian regimes appear ¿nely
balanced in the case o populist dictatorships. This makes it all the
more important to pay attention to a factor that has often been ignored
in the literature: the sources and the sustainability o their legitimacy.
BROKEN PROMISES
In the twentieth century, democratic collapse usually took the form o
a coup. When feuds between political factions produced exasperating
gridlock, a charismatic military ocer managed to convince his peers
to make a bid for power. Tanks would roll up in front o parliament,
and the aspiring dictator would take the reins o power.
The blatantly antidemocratic nature o these coups created serious
problems o legitimacy for the regimes to which they gave rise. Any
citizen who valued individual freedom or collective self-determination
could easily recognize the danger that these authoritarian govern-
ments posed. Insofar as these dictatorships enjoyed real popular sup-
port, it was based on their ability to deliver dierent political goods.
Little big man: supporters of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, May 2019