The Wall Street Journal - 28.10.2019

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. ** Monday, October 28, 2019 |A

WORLD NEWS

Islamic State grew under
Baghdadi into a massive
proto-state that used Western
social media platforms to ad-
vance the cause of radical Is-
lam. After attacks from an ar-
ray of forces backed by
international powers, it sur-
vived the destruction of its
self-proclaimed caliphate and
transformed into an under-
ground insurgency, stepping
up car bombings and assassi-
nations in both Iraq and Syria
A weakened Islamic State
could look to combine with the
other leading global jihadist
group, al Qaeda.
“They see this as a divinely
ordained struggle, so the
death of a mere mortal is not
enough to derail an enter-
prise” that began two decades
ago, said Bruce Hoffman, a
Georgetown University profes-
sor who has studied terrorism
for more than 40 years. “The
struggle will go on.”
A hobbled Islamic State
might even be reinvigorated
rather than demoralized by
Baghdadi’s death, said Charlie
Winter, a senior fellow at the
International Centre for the
Study of Radicalisation.
“In [the] coming days/
weeks/months, it’ll be rushing

ContinuedfromPageOne

1971 to a poor family of Is-

lamic clergy in a village out-

side Samarra, Iraq, about 80

miles north of the capital

Baghdad.

In the 1990s, he moved to

Baghdad and enrolled in the

Islamic University, from

which he would earn an un-

dergraduate degree, a mas-

ter’s and a doctorate.

His thinking began to

evolve in Baghdad, according

to Hisham al-Hashimi, an Iraqi

researcher of jihadist groups.

Baghdadi was initially drawn

to Iraqi affiliates of the Egypt-

based Muslim Brotherhood,

which espoused a politically

active brand of Islam.

He memorized the Quran

and began to lead others in

prayer, renting a room adjoin-

ing a small mosque in the cap-

ital, Mr. Hashimi said. During

that time, Baghdadi also came

into contact with adherents of

the Salafi Takfiri school of Is-

lam, who denounce as apos-

tates any Muslims who reject

the group’s strict interpreta-

tion of Islam.

As it was for many would-

be jihadists in Iraq, the 2003

U.S.-led invasion was a turning

point for Baghdadi.

In 2003 he helped found

the armed faction Jama’at

Jaysh Ahl al-Sunna, according

to Islamic State’s official biog-

raphy of Baghdadi. It was one

of an array of groups that

waged an insurgency against

American forces in Iraq.

The following year, U.S.

troops arrested him—possibly

by mistake. He was sent to

Camp Bucca, a U.S.-run de-

tention facility that would

serve as an incubator and re-

cruitment center for mili-

tants. There, Baghdadi met

figures linked to al Qaeda, in-

cluding Samir Abd Muham-

mad al-Khlifawi, also known

as Haji Bakr, along with hard-

ened criminals and former

loyalists of Saddam Hussein’s

Baathist regime.

Baghdadi was released

within a year.

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi led
the terror group Islamic State
as it conquered territory
across Syria and Iraq and
pulled the U.S. into another
Middle East war before losing
his self-described caliphate.
Unlike his predecessors,
who directed operations from
small pockets of territory
they controlled, Baghdadi
ruled a proto-state roughly
the size of Belgium. He pre-
sided over a vast bureaucracy,
accumulating wealth through
oil smuggling and taxation.
And he used social media to
inspire followers of Islamic
State to carry out terrorist
attacks around the world, cre-
ating a new blueprint for in-
surgent groups.
“He will be viewed in many
ways as a revolutionary for
how to merge insurgent war-
fare with modern technol-
ogy,” said Seth Jones, direc-
tor of the Transnational
Threats Project at the Center
for Strategic and Interna-
tional Studies.
Baghdadi emerged on the
world stage in July 2014, when
he made his only public ap-
pearance as head of Islamic
State, save for a video this
year. The group had recently
captured Mosul—Iraq’s second
largest city and the largest to
come under Islamic State con-
trol—and proclaimed a mod-
ern-day “caliphate.” Ascending
the pulpit in Mosul’s Grand
Nouri mosque, Baghdadi deliv-
ered a sermon exhorting Mus-
lims to follow him.
As many as 40,000 foreign
fighters answered his call,
flocking to Syria and Iraq to
join the ranks of Islamic
State, according to U.S. offi-
cials. Dozens of extremist
groups from North Africa and
sub-Saharan Africa to Asia
and the Caucasus Mountains
in Russia also pledged alle-
giance to Baghdadi.
He was born Ibrahim Aw-
wad al-Badri al-Samarrai in

BYISABELCOLES

Islamic State

Chief Cut Global

Path in Brutality

For the American military,

the lesson from the daring

and successful raid in Syria

that eliminated Islamic State

leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

is fairly simple:

“The fact

is, the guy

fought us,”

says Jim Mat-

tis, former de-

fense secre-

tary and

onetime top commander of

American forces in the Mid-

dle East. “We killed him.

That’s a reality. I think the

theme for the military is:

We’ll follow you to the ends

of the Earth, and we’ll find

you and kill you.”

For President Trump, the

meaning of the raid is simi-

larly positive but also more

complicated. Politically, the

successful elimination of the

Islamic State commander

and some of his top lieuten-

ants will offset some of the

intense criticism Mr. Trump

has been receiving for his

decision to pull back Ameri-

can troops in Syria, allowing

the U.S.’s Kurdish allies there

to be pummeled by Turkey.

More substantively, the

raid helps the president

make the argument implicit

A Political Win, With Caveats

in his withdrawal decision:

that the U.S. can still guard

its real interests in the re-

gion, which include continu-

ing to grind down Islamic

State, or ISIS, machinery,

without having troops in

permanent stations on the

ground.

“Our reach is very long,”

Mr. Trump said in officially

announcing the raid. Amer-

ica, he insisted, remains en-

gaged in the “relentless pur-

suit of terrorist leaders and

our commitment to the en-

during and total defeat of

ISIS and other terrorist or-

ganizations.”

Y

et beyond the initial

glow of success, more

troubling undercur-

rents remain. Ironically, the

raid served to underscore

that Baghdadi and a large

contingent of top aides and

family members were con-

tinuing to operate in Syria

even while U.S. forces were

leaving. That presents a

stark illustration that ISIS in

many ways remains intact in

that country and is a threat

in the vacuum left by an

American departure.

Indeed, in a recent report

on ISIS attempts to reconsti-

tute itself in Syria and

neighboring Iraq, the non-

partisan Institute for the

Study of War concluded that

Islamic State forces are

stronger now than were the

forces of al Qaeda, its ideo-

logical predecessor, when

the U.S. withdrew troops

from Iraq in 2011. The “slow

motion” reduction of ISIS

strength in recent years

“gave the group plenty of

time to plan and prepare for

the next phase of the war,”

the report said, while pre-

dicting ISIS efforts to re-es-

tablish control of territory in

Syria and Iraq.

The death of Baghdadi un-

doubtedly will complicate

this ISIS rebuilding task be-

cause he had exerted an in-

creasing amount of personal

control over Islamic State

forces. At the same time,

though, ISIS and its kindred

terrorist groups have often

responded to harsh blows by

launching high-profile ter-

rorist attacks, including at

American forces and targets,

meaning coming weeks could

be a time of new dangers for

Mr. Trump, just as he faces

the threat of impeachment.

M

oreover, recent his-

tory is peppered

with examples of

small, quick military victo-

ries that didn’t carry much

lasting political impact for

the presidents who ordered

them. When President Rea-

gan ordered American forces

into the tiny Caribbean is-

land nation of Grenada in

1983 to push aside a rene-

gade Marxist government

that appeared to pose a

threat to foreigners, Ameri-

can forces won a quick vic-

tory—but Mr. Reagan was

accused of moving to dis-

tract attention from the

more embarrassing deaths of

U.S. Marines in a bombing in

Lebanon.

Similarly, President Clin-

ton ordered a limited bomb-

ing operation in Iraq in 1998

over the failure of Iraqi

leader Saddam Hussein to

cooperate with United Na-

tions weapons inspectors, an

action taken precisely as the

House was in the midst of

impeachment proceedings

against him. Republicans

called the strike a ploy to di-

vert attention from Mr. Clin-

ton’s domestic problems.

Under far different cir-

cumstances, President

Obama ordered a raid in Pak-

istan that resulted in the

death of al Qaeda master-

mind Osama bin Laden in

2011. That raid, like the one
      Mr. Trump just ordered, was
      a spectacular success for
      American special-operations
      forces, and it captured
      Americans’ imagination. In
      retrospect, though, the raid
      wasn’t as significant in the
      long run as the parallel rise
      of ISIS that was under way
      at the same time.
      For Mr. Trump, the les-
      son is that eliminating
      Baghdadi certainly repre-
      sents a significant short-
      term victory—but just as
      certainly won’t be enough
      to end what still promises
      to be a long struggle with
      ISIS and Islamic extremists
      more broadly, in Syria and
      beyond.

CAPITAL JOURNAL

By Gerald F. Seib

Baghdadi used social media to draw followers around the world.

REUTERS

President Trump at the White House announcing the raid in Syria that eliminated the ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

ANDREW HARNIK/ASSOCIATED PRESS

ISIS in many ways is

intact and is a threat

in the vacuum left by

the U.S. departure.

to secure and consolidate its

remnants under whatever new

leadership structure emerges,”

Mr. Winter wrote on Twitter.

A senior U.S. official said

military pressure must con-

tinue on the remnants of Is-

lamic State “otherwise the

conditions will be ripe for

them to reconstitute,” as al

Qaeda did in Iraq.

The sudden departure of

U.S. troops from Syria that be-

gan earlier this month is ex-

pected to take pressure off the

group there. The Kurdish-led

Syrian Democratic Forces—the

main partners of the U.S. in

the fight against Islamic

State—are struggling to cope

with a Turkish military cam-

paign that seeks to dislodge

them from territory they have

held in northeast Syria.

The SDF are holding about

10,000 Islamic State prisoners

whose fates are now in question

as Kurdish leaders negotiate

with the Damascus government

and Russia about the future sta-

tus of their self-ruled enclave.

More than 100 prisoners

have already escaped, accord-

ing to James Jeffrey, the U.S.

special envoy for the fight

against Islamic State.

Meanwhile, many family

members of Islamic State fight-

ers held in refugee camps retain

the radical outlook and die-hard

loyalty that Baghdadi cultivated

among his followers.

“This news broke my heart,

but God willing a thousand

Baghdadis will be born after

him,” said Um Razan an Is-

lamic State family member liv-

ing in Syria.

In neighboring Iraq, secu-

rity forces have rushed to

shore up their border with

Syria, erecting berms, walls,

and barbed wire, fearing infil-

tration of Islamic State mili-

tants across the border.

SDF officials have said they

would continue to work with

the U.S.-led coalition against Is-

lamic State despite feeling be-

trayed by President Trump’s de-

cision to withdraw troops from

Syria. Still, the troop withdrawal

has forced the Pentagon to re-

calibrate its approach. U.S. mili-

tary officials said the coalition

will continue drone strikes, in-

telligence gathering and other

operations, but counterterror-

ism missions are being scaled

back as the military reduces its

forces on the ground.

“The pace of our operations

has slowed down,” said Col.

Myles Caggins, a Coalition

spokesman in Baghdad. “Our

priority is a deliberate with-

drawal.”

Instead of working closely

with a Syrian partner on the

ground to stage frequent raids

and other missions, U.S. coun-

terterrorism operations will be

limited to opportunistic strikes

like the one that took out Bagh-

dadi, according to U.S. officials

and military analysts.

The White House is now con-

sidering leaving as many as 500

troops in Syria. On Saturday, the

U.S. sent fresh forces to secure

oil fields in eastern Syria, two

officials said, as part of a pivot

from a decision to pull most U.S.

troops out. Whether those

troops remain, and whether

fighting Islamic State is an ac-

tive part of their mission still

isn’t clear.

—Nazih Osseiran in Beirut

and Vivian Salama

in Washington

contributed to this article.

Insurgency

Is Unlikely

To End

Islamic State fighters in a commandeered military vehicle in 2014.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Meet SimpliSafe.There are no contracts.

No hidden fees. And no nonsense.

All at prices that are fair and honest.

It’s home security. Done right.

Right now, get free shipping

atSimpliSafe.com/wall

sr.

sr.

srngr.