With Great Demographics Comes Great PowerJuly/August 2019 149
U.S. misadventures abroad and political turbulence at home have
naturally led some to suggest that American power is on the wane. A
look at demographic projections for China and Russia, however, sug-
gests that fears that the United States will lose its position o primacy
anytime soon are misplaced.
China is the United States’ main international rival, and at Ãrst
glance, it is an impressive rival indeed. It is the world’s most populous
country, with almost 1.4 billion people, and over the past four decades,
it has seen the most rapid and sustained burst o economic growth in
human history. Adjusting for relative
purchasing power, the Chinese economy
is now the largest in the world. China’s
growth since the 1970s is usually attrib-
uted to the policies o Deng Xiaoping,
who pushed the country in a more
market-friendly direction after becom-
ing the paramount leader in 1978. But
demographics also played a critical role. Between 1975 and 2010, China’s
working-age population (those aged 15–64) nearly doubled, and total
hours worked grew even faster, as the country abandoned the Maoist
policies that had made paid labor both less available and less appealing.
Overall health and educational attainment rose rapidly, as well.
Given this impressive record, many—apparently including China’s
leadership—expect that China will surpass the United States as the
world’s leading power sometime in the next two decades. Yet the
country’s longer-term demographic prospects suggest otherwise.
Over the past two generations, China has seen a collapse in fertility,
exacerbated by Beijing’s ruthless population-control programs. The
one-child policy, introduced in 1979, was ended in 2015, but the dam-
age had already been done. China’s total fertility rate (¢μ) has been
below the replacement level o 2.1 children per woman since at least
the early 1990s. According to the ¤ Population Division, China’s
¢μ now stands at 1.6, but some analysts, such as Cai Fang, a Chinese
demographer and member o the Standing Committee o the Na-
tional People’s Congress, believe it may be as low as 1.4—more than
30 percent below replacement. In major cities such as Shanghai, fer-
tility may stand at one birth per woman or less.
With decades o extremely low fertility in its immediate past, dec-
ades more o that to come, and no likelihood o mass immigration,
Unfavorable demographic
trends are creating heavy
headwinds for the Chinese
economy.