Richard Fontaine
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U.S. operations there compose only a fraction o the $15 billion budget
for Operation Inherent Resolve, as the military campaign against in
Iraq and Syria is known. Such Änancial costs are signiÄcant, and the
human losses tragic, but there is reason to believe that they will be much
lower in the future, given the elimination o ’ physical caliphate.
Still, Washington could cut yet more costs by allowing more regular
troops to relieve the burden placed on elite special operations forces.
Over time, it could reallocate expensive military equipment—such as
F-35 and F-22 aircraft—to arenas o great-power competition and in-
stead invest in cheaper aircraft for anti- bombings in Iraq and
Syria. Doing so would free up resources for missions in other regions
and reduce the Änancial burden. I calls for disengagement from Syria
prevail, however, it is likely that conditions on the ground will eventu-
ally deteriorate, and the United States may once again have to deploy
ground forces to prevent the reemergence o a terrorist stronghold.THE PERILS OF PREDICTION
Ultimately, the unpredictability o world events puts a priority on
human judgment and undermines rigid formulas. That is precisely
why it is so unwise for 2020 presidential candidates to make categor-
ical commitments to end the United States’ involvement in Afghani-
stan, Iraq, and Syria and why it is unwise for Trump to focus on an
exit to those conÁicts rather than the right conditions that would
safely enable one. This uncertainty is also a reason why voters must
place a priority on the judgment o their would-be leaders.
Amid all the justiÄed frustration with the United States’ post–
Cold War approach and pledges to dial back intervention and end
forever wars, far more subtlety is needed when it comes to consider-
ing if, when, and how the United States should use force abroad. No
grand strategy can be built on the presumption that military inter-
vention is mostly an erroneous activity o yesteryear, rather than an
enduring feature o U.S. foreign policy.
Now, as the world enters its post–post–Cold War phase, Ameri-
cans need to do some hard thinking. Their country remains a global
power, with strongly held interests and values that require defend-
ing. The United States need not look abroad for monsters to de-
stroy. But it must not lull itsel into believing that such monsters
have disappeared.∂