Foreign Affairs - 11.2019 - 12.2019

(Michael S) #1

Kimberly Clausing


112 μ¢œ¤ž³£ ¬μ쬞œ˜


disappointing outcomes in American labor markets. Across all indus-
tries, the returns to education have increased, as less educated workers
are disproportionately displaced by automation and computerization.
And although manufacturing output continues to rise, manufacturing
employment has fallen, as capital takes the place o– labor and work-
ers steadily move into the service industry. Yet in spite o‘ all this
evidence about the eects o‘ technological change, politicians still
point Ängers at foreigners.

THE MYTH OF BAD DEALS
Critics o‘ trade on both the left and the right contend that much o‘
the problem has to do with bad trade deals that Washington has struck.
On the left, the concern is that trade agreements have prioritized the
interests o‘ corporations over those o‘ workers. On the right, it is that
trade agreements have focused on the goal o‘ international cooperation
at the expense o‘ U.S. interests. Trump has argued that U.S. trade
deals have been tilted against the United States, contributing to the
large trade deÄcit (meaning that the country imports more than it
exports) and hollowing out the manufacturing sector. Sanders has
echoed these concerns in the past, for example, claiming that the
North American Free Trade Agreement (£¬μ¡¬) cost 43,000 jobs in
Michigan and is behind Detroit’s urban decline.
But just as trade in general is not to blame for the woes o‘ the
American worker, neither are the speciÄcs o‘ individual trade deals.
In fact, the terms o‘ trade agreements are typically highly favorable
to the United States. That’s because such deals usually require U.S.
trading partners to lower their trade barriers far more than the United
States must, since Washington tends to start o with much lower
trade barriers. Such was certainly the case with Mexico, which, prior
to £¬μ¡¬, had taris that averaged ten percent, compared with U.S.
taris that averaged two percent.
This is not to say that trade agreements cannot be improved; useful
tweaks could counter the excessive prioritization o‘ intellectual prop-
erty and reduce the reach o‘ the mechanism by which investors and
states resolve disputes, which critics allege gives companies too much
power to Äght health and environmental regulations. The ¡ŸŸ attempted
to modernize £¬μ¡¬ by placing a greater emphasis on the rights o‘
workers and protecting the environment, and future agreements
could go even further.
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