New Scientist - 26.10.2019

24 | New Scientist | 26 October 2019

W

ITH the global

population predicted

to hit close to 10 billion

by 2050, and forecasts that

agricultural production in some

regions will need to nearly double

to keep pace, food security is

increasingly making headlines.

In the UK, it has become a big

talking point recently too, for a

rather particular reason: Brexit.

Brexit is seen by some as an

opportunity to reverse a recent

trend towards the UK importing

food. The country produces only

about 60 per cent of the food

it eats, down from almost

three-quarters in the late 1980s.

A move back to self-sufficiency,

the argument goes, would boost

the farming industry, political

sovereignty and even the nation’s

health. Sounds great – but how

feasible is this vision?

Answering this question in

detail could be the subject of an

entire PhD. Fortunately, we can get

to the crux of the issue with some

simple stats. According to a report

on UK food production from the

University of Leeds, UK, 85 per

cent of the country’s total land

area is associated with meat and

dairy production. That supplies

80 per cent of what is consumed,

so even covering the whole

country in livestock farms

wouldn’t allow us to cover all

our meat and dairy needs.

There are many caveats to

those figures, but they are still

stark. To become much more self-

sufficient, the UK would need to

drastically reduce its consumption

of animal foods, and probably also

farm more intensively – meaning

fewer green fields, and more

factory-style production.

But switching to a mainly plant-

based diet wouldn’t help. There

is a good reason why the UK is

dominated by animal husbandry:

most of its terrain doesn’t have the

right soil or climate to grow crops

on a commercial basis. Just 25 per

cent of the country’s land is

suitable for crop-growing, most

of which is already occupied by

arable fields. Even if we converted

all the suitable land to fields of

fruit and veg – which would

involve taking out all the nature

reserves and evicting thousands

of people from their homes – we

would achieve only a 30 per cent

boost in crop production.

Just 23 per cent of the fruit and

vegetables consumed in the UK

are currently home-grown, so

even with the most extreme

measures we could meet only

30 per cent of our fresh produce

needs. That is before we look for

the space to grow the grains,

sugars, seeds and oils that

provide us with the vast bulk

of our current calorie intake.

Britain’s reliance on food

imports is far from a modern

phenomenon, stretching back

until at least the mid 1700s, when

the population was just a fraction

of what it is now. As early as

the 1930s, just 30 per cent of

the food eaten in the UK was

domestically produced.

The fact that number is now

so much higher is down to the

green revolution of the mid 20th

century, in which innovations in

agricultural technology caused

average crop yields to almost

treble. By 1987, the country was

74 per cent self-sufficient. Since

then, however, agricultural

productivity has stalled, for

reasons that aren’t well

understood. With increasing

demand from a growing

population, self-sufficiency

levels have fallen again.

Proponents of UK food

self-sufficiency often point to the

Netherlands, a country that is the

world’s second-biggest exporter

of food, despite having a land area

roughly a sixth of the UK’s and

almost twice the population

density. But this stat is based

on the economic value of the

Netherlands’s agri-food exports,

not on the amount of calories the

country produces. It includes sales

not just of food, but of the sector’s

single biggest export: cut flowers.

In addition, a large part of

these exports are foods that

were initially imported. The

Netherlands is, for example, the

world’s fifth-largest exporter of

oranges, despite a distinct lack

of Dutch orange groves.

Expressed in terms of calories,

not cash, the Netherlands is

actually in the bottom 10 for

self-sufficiency in the world

according to the United Nations,

being on a par with countries like

Syria, Armenia and Zimbabwe.

The Netherlands is a global leader

in sustainable agricultural tech,

but like the UK, it has to contend

with the limitations of geography,

climate and population.

Can the UK become less reliant

on imports when it comes to

food? Probably. Can it become

self-sufficient, even in foods

typically grown in the country,

in the timescales being talked

about? To put it bluntly, using

current technology, it is a

WORAWUT SAEWONG/SHUTTERSTOCK mathematical impossibility. ❚

This column appears

monthly. Up next week:

Chanda Prescod-Weinstein

“ There’s a reason

why the UK is

dominated by

animal husbandry –

most of its land

is no good

for crops”

The dream of food self-sufficiency Proponents of Brexit argue

that it is an opportunity for the UK to grow more of its own food.

A great idea – but there are just a few problems, says James Wong

#FactsMatter

What I’m reading

Mainly Twitter, getting

anxious about the world.

I need to do less of that.

What I’m watching

Magical Andes on

Netflix. I did my master’s

research in Ecuador and

am a wannabe Latino.

What I’m working on

Preparing for the Youth

Ag Summit in Brasilia

(4-6 November), which

will reveal what the next

generation of the world’s

farmers are working on.

James’s week

Views Columnist

James Wong is a botanist and

science writer, with a particular

interest in food crops,

conservation and the

environment. Trained at the

Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, he

shares his tiny London flat with

more than 500 houseplants.

You can follow him on Twitter

and Instagram @botanygeek