2019-10-12_The_Economist_

58 Britain The EconomistOctober 12th 2019

2 sis that a minister had already rejected the

proposal, thus setting a limit on what bu-

reaucrats could do in the absence of politi-

cians. Afterwards, Westminster passed a

law allowing Northern Irish government

departments to make decisions in the

“public interest” if they had to. But the civil

service has not been able to act in areas

where the public interest is unclear, such

as raising tuition fees or increasing public-

sector pay.

Even where there is political consensus,

change has been difficult to achieve. Out-

rage has been noisiest over the failure to re-

spond to an inquiry into historical abuse in

children’s homes, youth detention centres

and other institutions. In 2017 the inquiry

recommended offering compensation to

victims, which has not happened. Unlike

in England and Wales, legislation has not

yet been passed to speed up criminal trials

or to tighten the law on domestic abuse, de-

spite the Northern Irish government’s stat-

ed intention to do both before it fell.

Civil servants are acutely aware of the

delicate role they must play. “A typical

meeting with a politician, if I’m being ab-

solutely frank, is them complaining about

the things we’ve done and complaining

about the things we haven’t done,” says

one. In places where reforms had been set

out by the executive before it collapsed,

like those to reshape the health system, bu-

reaucrats have some leeway. Most depart-

ments have no such luck, however.

This is unfortunate in a region where

public services are already in bad shape.

According to the Nuffield Trust, another

think-tank, a person in Northern Ireland is

at least 48 times as likely as one in Wales to

wait a year or more for health care. The edu-

cation ministry has estimated there are

50,000 surplus school places in Northern

Ireland, equivalent to a sixth of all places

(closing schools is hard because of reli-

gious segregation). Infrastructure is poor

and the economy relies on public-sector

jobs. Even at the best of times, local offi-

cialdom does not seem up to the job, says

Deirdre Heenan of Ulster University.

In the absence of a government, it is dif-

ficult for the civil service to be held ac-

countable unless someone takes it to court.

The Northern Ireland Audit Office, a statu-

tory watchdog, has continued to publish

reports and senior officials have become

more media-friendly (“It’s not the most

comfortable thing in the world for a grey-

suited civil servant,” admits one). But min-

isters cannot be asked questions, commit-

tees do not sit and Westminster has done

little to keep tabs. With relatively little

scrutiny of policies by outside institutions,

this leaves a vacuum.

Sir Jonathan Phillips, a former head of

the British government’s Northern Ireland

Office, has said that leaving the European

Union without a deal would probably re-

quirebringingbackdirectrulefromWest-

minster,owingtothevolumeofdecisions

thatwouldhavetobetaken.Few would

welcomethat.Yetthereislittlehopeofa re-

turn to devolved government any time

soon.Problemswillcontinuetomountas

thecivilservicestrugglestokeepthingsgo-

ing,puttingmorestrainontheGoodFriday

agreementthathasstoodformorethan

twodecades.Noteveryoneisupsetabout

thestagnation,however.TheOvalisold

and needs a lot of work, admits David

Brownlee,a 53-year-oldGlentoranfan,as

heapproachesthestadiumbeforea Friday-

nightmatchagainstCliftonvillefc. “ButI

lovetheweegroundasit is.” 7

N

obody should have been surprised

when the European Union objected to

Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan, proposed on

October 2nd. After all, the proposal resiled

from previous British promises that there

would be no customs border between

Northern Ireland and the south, and it also

planned to hand the hardline Democratic

Unionist Party a four-yearly right to veto

the arrangement. Dublin was unhappy

with the plan, as were Northern Irish pub-

lic opinion and most business leaders. So

what were the prime minister’s real goals?

One may have been to stake out a tough

position in hopes of luring a fed-up euinto

a compromise closer to his terms. Yet un-

less Mr Johnson moves much further, this

looks increasingly unlikely to work. Hence

a second goal that became clear this week:

to heap the blame for forcing a no-deal

Brexit on intransigence in Brussels. A mes-

sage to the Spectator magazine from a

Downing Street source claimed that Leo Va-

radkar, the Irish taoiseach, had reneged on

earlier promises to back the deal. This was

followed by an implausible assertion that

Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, had

told Mr Johnson that any deal was now “es-

sentially impossible”.

The euhas been alert to such tactics

ever since Mr Johnson became prime min-

ister in July. On October 8th Donald Tusk,

president of the European Council, de-

manded an end to “this stupid blame

game”. The British government continues

to insist that Brexit will happen on October

31st, “do or die”, and is even planning to

mint 3m commemorative coins for the oc-

casion. Yet the eubelieves that Mr Johnson

is now legally bound by the Benn act,

passed by Parliament last month, to ask for

an extension if, as expected, he gets no deal

at the European Council summit on Octo-

ber 17th and 18th.

Indeed, unless Mr Johnson gives a lot

more ground, the summit is likely to de-

vote most of its time to debate over another

extension, not over a deal. Mujtaba Rah-

man of the Eurasia Group, a consultancy,

reports that on this the mood around the

euis calm, not fretful. There is no serious

talk of anyone blocking an extension, de-

spite brazen threats in London that Britain

will disrupt eubusiness and even limit fu-

ture security co-operation if a delay is

granted. The only issues are how long the

extension should be and what justification

to cite for giving it.

The odds are that, as suggested by the

Benn act, an extension will be offered until

January 31st, though some are talking of

March or even next summer. And the justi-

fication will be so that Britain can hold

some democratic event—most likely the

election that Mr Johnson badly wants, but,

if not, conceivably another referendum.

Downing Street has said it will summon

mps to Westminster for a rare Saturday sit-

ting the day after the Brussels summit to

debate future options.

The euknows that Mr Johnson wants to

fight an election under the banner of “the

people versus Parliament”, and perhaps

even on a straight promise that, if he se-

cures a majority, he will at once take Britain

out with no deal. But by irredeemably split-

ting his Conservative Party, such a promise

may prove impossible to keep. Eventually,

Brussels expects Britain, whether or not

still led by Mr Johnson, to have to come

back to the negotiating table with a more

accommodating approach. Hence its se-

renity in an otherwise chaotic week. 7

As Britain blames the eufor rejecting

its offer, talk turns to yet another delay

The Brexit negotiations

Die another day

Who holds all the cards again?