The New York Times - 08.10.2019

A10 N THE NEW YORK TIMES INTERNATIONALTUESDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2019

The 45th PresidentForeign Policy

WASHINGTON — President
Trump’s sudden blessing of a
Turkish military operation in
northern Syria and his announce-
ment of an American troop with-
drawal from that region raised
questions about the fate of thou-
sands of Islamic State detainees
that the Turks’ targets, American-
backed Syrian Kurds, have been
holding in makeshift wartime
prisons.
Mr. Trump insisted that Turkey
must assume responsibility for
the captured ISIS fighters and
their families. But it is far from
clear what will happen to them,
and a host of issues arose from Mr.
Trump’s abrupt, if still murky,
change in policy.

What is going on in northern
Syria?

The situation is deeply compli-
cated. For now, the Kurdish-led
Syrian Democratic Forces control
northern Syria. They have been
the primary American ally inside
Syria in the war against the Is-
lamic State, carrying out the brunt
of the ground-level fighting with
support from American airstrikes
and weapons. They operate pris-
ons where ISIS members are de-
tained.
The Kurds are menaced from
the north by Turkey, which has
been fighting separatist Kurds in-
side its borders for years and con-
siders the Syrian Kurds to be ter-
rorists, too. Meanwhile, President
Bashar al-Assad of Syria, backed
by Russia, controls the southern
part of the country and wants to
eventually retake it all, raising the
possibility of a deal with the
Kurds.
The presence of American
troops has helped maintain a frag-
ile peace. But the White House
said that Mr. Trump has given a
green light for a Turkish military
operation into northern Syria, and
Mr. Trump said on Twitter that it
was time to pull out. “Turkey, Eu-
rope, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and
the Kurds will now have to figure
the situation out,” he said, “and
what they want to do with the cap-
tured ISIS fighters in their ‘neigh-
borhood.’ ”

Who are the ISIS detainees?

The Syrian Democratic Forces op-

erate an archipelago of ad hoc

wartime detention sites for cap-

tive ISIS fighters, ranging from

former schoolhouses in towns like

Ainissa and Kobane to a former

Syrian prison at Hasaka.

The prisons hold about 11,

men, of whom about 9,000 are lo-

cals — Syrians or Iraqis — and

about 2,000 come from some 50

other nations whose home gov-

ernments have been reluctant to

repatriate them. They also oper-

ate camps for families displaced

by the conflict that hold tens of

thousands of people, many of

them non-Syrian wives and chil-

dren of Islamic State fighters.

“If Turkey attacks these Kurd-

ish soldiers, there is a grave risk

that the ISIS fighters they guard

will escape and return to the bat-

tlefield,” a bipartisan group of law-

makers who recently visited the

Middle East said in a joint state-

ment on Monday.

Would a Turkish invasion reach

the prisons?

This is one of many unknowns. An

American-brokered plan in the

works would create a demilita-

rized “safe zone” a few miles deep

along a roughly 78-mile portion of

the Syrian-Turkish border to re-

assure Turkey and forestall any

military conflict with the Kurds.

That would not affect the Kurds’

ability to keep running the pris-

ons.

But Mr. Erdogan, speaking at

the United Nations General As-

sembly last month, has instead

pushed for a much longer and

deeper zone. A broader invasion

could reach the prisons, and it

would set off an armed conflict

that could prompt the Kurds to

pull guards from prisons so they

could instead join the fight.

The “worst-case scenario” is

that the Kurds are so frustrated

and angered by the United States’

action that “they decide to release

wholesale some of the detainees,”

said Christopher P. Costa, a for-

mer senior director for counter-

terrorism on Mr. Trump’s National

Security Council who now heads

the International Spy Museum.

Is Turkey planning to take custody

of ISIS prisoners?

It was not clear. The White House

said Turkey would “now be re-

sponsible for all ISIS fighters in

the area captured over the past

two years.” But Turkey has given

no public sign that it has agreed to

take over that headache.

For now at least, the Kurds have

told American officials that they

will continue to hold the ISIS de-

tainees. But a senior State Depart-

ment official acknowledged that

the best-trained guards could be

pulled away in the event of a con-

flict with Turkey, calling it a “big

concern” that some ISIS fighters

could go free.

“It’s hard to imagine Turkey has

the capacity to handle securely

and appropriately the detainees

long held by the Syrian Kurds —

and that’s if Turkey even genuine-

ly intends to try,” said Joshua A.

Geltzer, a former senior director

for counterterrorism at the Na-

tional Security Council in the

Obama administration.

Why did Trump complain about

Europeans?

The Kurds have implored coun-

tries around the world to take

back their citizens who fought for

the Islamic State and were cap-

tured. But that idea is politically

unpopular in many European

countries.

Mr. Trump is correct that na-

tions like Belgium, Britain, France

and Germany have been largely

content to let the Kurds bear the

burden of detaining their citizens

— particularly the male fighters.

Many European law enforce-

ment officials fear that if they re-

patriate their extremist citizens,

they would be unable to convict

them or keep them locked up for a

long time. European counterter-

rorism laws are weaker than

those in the United States, where a

conviction merely for joining a

designated terrorist group can

yield a 15-year prison sentence.

But Mr. Trump was wrong when

he also said that the captured ISIS

fighters were “mostly from Eu-

rope.” While scores of the impris-

oned men have European citizen-

ship, far more come from other

countries that are part of the Mus-

lim world — like Tunisia, Egypt

and Yemen, to say nothing of the

thousands of local Syrians and

Iraqis.

What about the ‘Beatles’?

Unlike many other countries, the

United States has taken its citi-

zens off the Kurds’ hands. But

there are two British detainees

still in Kurdish custody whom the

United States has a particular in-

terest in keeping locked up: El

Shafee Elsheikh and Alexanda

Kotey.

They are two of the so-called

Beatles, a four-member cell of

British ISIS members who tor-

tured and murdered Western hos-

tages, including James Foley, the

American journalist who was be-

headed in August 2014 for an ISIS

propaganda video. Another mem-

ber of the cell, who was later killed

in a drone strike, is believed to

have killed Mr. Foley.

The Justice Department in-

tends to eventually bring them to

the Eastern District of Virginia for

trial, but a court fight in Britain

has delayed that transfer. The law-

suit is over whether the British

government may share evidence

with the United States without an

assurance that American pros-

ecutors will not seek the death

penalty.

“It’s a good day for the Beatles,”

said Senator Lindsey Graham, a

South Carolina Republican who is

normally a staunch Trump ally

but who denounced the presi-

dent’s move as “complete chaos”

and “a disaster.” In a phone inter-

view, Mr. Graham vowed to lead a

congressional vote to try to im-

pose sanctions on Turkey if it in-

vades northern Syria, despite Mr.

Trump’s acquiescence.

Trump’s Green Light to Turkey Raises Fears About Fate of ISIS Detainees

By CHARLIE SAVAGE

Men suspected of being Islamic State fighters waiting to be searched in February by Syrian Kurds, who run the area’s wartime prisons.

BULENT KILIC/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE — GETTY IMAGES

Eric Schmitt and Lara Jakes con-
tributed reporting.

TOKYO — A large North Kore-
an fishing trawler collided with a
Japanese patrol ship within Ja-
pan’s exclusive economic zone on
Monday, throwing dozens of
North Korean crew members
overboard and drawing renewed
warnings from Tokyo about illegal
fishing in its waters.
According to Japan’s Coast
Guard, the North Korean fishing
boat struck a patrol ship for the
Japanese fisheries agency on
Monday morning in the sea be-
tween Japan and the Korean Pen-
insula, about 220 miles northwest
of the Noto Peninsula in central
Japan.
About 60 members of the fish-
ing crew were rescued, the Coast
Guard said, adding that all of the
North Koreans were believed to
be accounted for. The fishing ship
sank about 15 minutes after the
collision.
The episode came less than a
week after North Korea launched
a missile that landed off Japan’s
coast, also in its exclusive eco-
nomic zone. Japan has tried to en-
gage North Korea in talks on its
nuclear program but has so far
been rebuffed.
When asked if the North Korean
vessel had hit the Japanese patrol
ship on purpose, Naoki Okada, the
deputy chief cabinet secretary,
told reporters that the cause of the
crash was still uncertain. “The
cause of the collision is the most
crucial part, and we are currently
under investigation, so I’d like to
refrain from commenting,” he
said.
No injuries were reported on
the Japanese ship. According to
the Coast Guard, the rescued crew
members were taken to another
North Korean ship.
Japan’s fisheries agency has re-
peatedly warned North Korean
ships that have sailed into the
country’s waters that their squid
fishing operations are illegal.
Over all, the number of North
Korean vessels warned by Japa-
nese patrol boats has been declin-
ing, according to the Coast Guard.
Between May and September of
this year, the Coast Guard warned
983 North Korean ships to leave
Japanese waters, compared with
1,235 in the same period last year.
Speaking before Parliament,
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said
that the government would “con-
tinue to resolutely deal with illegal
fishing by foreign fishing vessels”

in Japan’s exclusive economic

zone “as we did before.”

Satoshi Kuwahara, the chief of

Japan’s fisheries agency, told re-

porters that its patrol boats had

routinely set off water cannons or

flashed electric bulletin board

messages to ships that illegally

entered Japan’s waters. The colli-

sion on Monday occurred while

the Japanese patrol boat was

sending out such warnings.

Analysts said North Korea

tended not to abide by interna-

tional laws when conducting ac-

tivities like fishing. “North Korea

hasn’t joined the United Nations

Convention on the Law of the Sea,

and in many cases, they don’t fol-

low rules that are kept among

other countries,” said Satoru

Miyamoto, a professor of political

science and economics at

Seigakuin University.

North Korean fishing boats of-

ten wander into waters near Rus-

sia, China and South Korea, said

Robert E. Kelly, a professor of in-

ternational relations at Pusan Na-

tional University in Busan, South

Korea.

“My sense is it’s probably just a

typical North Korean ‘the rules

don’t apply to us’ sort of ap-

proach,” said Mr. Kelly, who noted

that North Korea had broken in-

ternational norms by counterfeit-

ing money, engaging in drug and

arms trading and abusing work-

ers.

“I think North Korea puts a lot

of stake in its reputation, and they

want to be understood as reckless

because they believe that encour-

ages the countries around them to

treat them gingerly and cau-

tiously,” Mr. Kelly added.

Many of North Korea’s fishing

vessels are operated by its mili-

tary, and squid is a lucrative catch.

Although United Nations sanc-

tions prohibit North Korea from

selling seafood, some analysts

said that buyers in China might be

quietly purchasing fish hauls.

“They can earn a lot with

squid,” said Jiro Ishimaru, an in-

dependent journalist who covers

North Korea and heads the Osaka

office of Asia Press. He said that

as North Korea’s fishing crews

had most likely depleted stocks

near their own coast, they would

venture farther out for catches.

Fish is one of the few sources of

protein for most North Koreans,

Mr. Miyamoto said. For years,

North Korean fishing boats have

often run aground on Japan’s

coastline, either empty or carry-

ing the dead bodies of their crew.

North Korean Fishing Boat

And Japanese Ship Collide

This article is by Motoko Rich,
Makiko Inoueand Eimi Yamamitsu.

BAGHDAD (AP) — The Iraqi

prime minister ordered the army

on Monday to withdraw from Sadr

City, the military said, putting the

police back in charge of security in

a Baghdad neighborhood where

dozens of people were killed or

wounded at protests over the

weekend.

Prime Minister Adel Abdul-

Mahdi made the move after a

week of violence that gripped Iraq

left more than 100 dead and thou-

sands wounded.

The unrest is the most serious

challenge facing Iraq, two years

after a victory over Islamic State

militants. The chaos also comes at

a critical time for the government,

which has been caught in the mid-

dle of increasing tensions be-

tween the United States and Iran.

Iraq is allied with both countries

and hosts thousands of American

troops, as well as powerful para-

military forces allied with Iran.

Monday’s order appears aimed

at calming tensions in Sadr City, a

sprawling and heavily populated

Shiite neighborhood where the

populist cleric Moktada al-Sadr

enjoys wide support.

The army statement said exces-

sive force had been used in Sadr

City, adding that officers and sol-

diers who “carried out these

wrong acts” would be held ac-

countable.

Hundreds gathered on side

streets near Sadr City, two and a

half miles from Tahrir Square in

central Baghdad, which has been

the destination point of the week-

long rallies — though the authori-

ties prevented protesters from

reaching it.

Iraqi security officials said on

Monday that at least 14 protesters

had been killed and 62 wounded

the previous day, many of them in

Sadr City.

Baghdad streets were rela-

tively quiet on Monday, with no

protesters seen outside. Tahrir

Square looked more like an army

barracks, with a heavy military

and police presence making it dif-

ficult for protesters to reach the

area.

Iraq’s most senior Shiite spiri-

tual leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-

Sistani, has urged the protesters

and the security forces to end the

violence, while the prime minister

has called on the protesters to go

home.

Iraq’s national security adviser,

Falih Al-Fayadh, said on Monday

that the government would fight

attempts to “bring down the Iraqi

state,” adding that an ongoing in-

vestigation would prove who was

behind the violence in Baghdad

and the predominantly Shiite

southern provinces.

“We will not let anyone to med-

dle with the security of our peo-

ple,” he said.

Army to Leave Baghdad Area Where Dozens Died

Iraqi Army troops near protests in Baghdad on Sunday. Rallies

took place in Sadr City, a heavily populated Shiite area.

KHALID MOHAMMED/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Military leaders say

excessive force was

used at protests.