44 BUSINESS SKILLS
Illustrationen: Yann BastardBusiness Spotlight 6/2019Ask yourself: To what extent can I trust
the data that our systems provide us with
to make decisions? What other sources of
information that we have, or could get ac-
cess to, might serve us better?c) Much data doesn’t have a clear mes-
sage. Let’s take a very practical exam-
ple: if my first-quarter sales data show
a decrease, what should I do? Should I
take these numbers as evidence of sales
staff failure and incompetence, and fire
people? Should I initiate a round of cost-
cutting and stop all business travel? Or
should I wait for another three, six or pos-
sibly 12 months until I am confident that
I can see a meaningful trend? We often
cannot be sure of the messages that data
is giving us until well after the event. And
the data alone doesn’t show us the causes
of the changes we observe.
Ask yourself: What are the time con-
straints within which my decision-
making operates? To what extent do these
constraints limit my decision-making?
What can I do to avoid taking decisions
too quickly or too slowly?d) Our minds distort reality. There is in-
creasing awareness of the regular failure
of our attention and memory, and of how
our minds take poor decisions as a result.
We also know about the risks of quick
decision-making, particularly by leaders
who assume they know everything about
an organization or context, a particularly
dangerous assumption when working in
unfamiliar cultures and markets. Many
organizations now invest in cognitive
bias training, alerting employees to the
fact that our natural thinking processes
distort the way we see things (see also
Business Spotlight 4/2018). One of the most
serious of the cognitive biases is “hind-
sight bias”, which we use to convince
ourselves that we knew all along that a
decision we made was poor, and that we
were forced to take it against our better
judgement. This is a great way to pretend
to ourselves how smart we are. It also re-
duces our ability to learn and think more
carefully about our next decision.
Ask yourself: How well do I understand
cognitive bias and its impact on my deci-
sion-making? What can I do to avoid my
own blind spots and those of my team
when taking important decisions? When
can I trust my intuition?alert sb. to sth.
[əˈlɜːt tE] , jmdn. auf
etw. aufmerksam machen
appreciate sb.
[əˈpriːʃieɪt]
, jmdn. wertschätzen
appropriate
[əˈprəʊpriət]
, richtig, geeignet
blind spot [(blaɪnd spɒt]
, blinder Fleck,
Schwachpunkt
cognitive bias
[)kɒɡnətɪv (baɪəs]
, kognitive Verzerrung
core need [ˌkɔː (niːd]
, Kernbedürfnis
derive from sth.
[diˈraɪv frQm]
, aus etw. resultieren
distort sth. [dɪˈstɔːt]
, etw. verzerren
efficacy [ˈefIkəsi]
, Wirksamkeit;
hier: Wirkungskraft
ego preservation
[ˈiːɡəʊ prezə)veɪʃ&n]
, hier: Erhalt des
Selbstwertgefühls
engagingly
[ɪnˈɡeɪdʒɪŋli]
, hier: andere einbe-
ziehend
entity [ˈentəti]
, Einheit; hier: Wesen
harsh lesson
[ˌhɑːʃ ˈles&n]
, harte Lektion
hindsight bias
[ˈhaɪndsaɪt ˌbaɪəs]
, Rückschaufehler
humility [hjuːˈmɪləti]
, Bescheidenheit
impede sth. [ɪmˈpiːd]
, etw. behindern,
erschweren
outcome [ˈaʊtkʌm]
, Ergebnis
out of all scope
[)aʊt əv )ɔːl (skəʊp]
, hier: jeden Rahmen
sprengend
radar [ˈreɪdɑː]
, hier: Kontrollsystem
return on investment
[ri)tɜːn ɒn ɪnˈvestmənt]
, Kapitalrendite
revenues [ˈrevənjuːz]
, Einnahmen, Erlöse
technical [ˈteknɪk&l]
, hier: rational
time constraint
[(taɪm kən)streɪnt]
, zeitliche EinschränkungWHAT LOOK
LIKE BAD
DECISIONS
CAN TURN OUT
TO BE GOOD
DECISIONS
e) Decisions are often based on feelings,
not facts. Most professionals view them-
selves as technical beings rather than as
emotional entities. This is far from reali-
ty. As we listen to others, hear what they
say and prepare what we want to say and
which decisions we want to take, a fun-
damental, powerful emotional childlike
radar is always on. Am I liked? Am I appre-
ciated? Am I safe? Is my role respected?
Am I a part of this community? If our an-
swer to any of these questions about our
core needs is no, this affects our ability to
listen and speak openly and engagingly.
We stop listening, and speak defensive-
ly and critically, which itself stops others
listening. Ego preservation takes over
from data collection as our priority. The
flow of information is impeded, and the
quality of our decisions diminishes.
Ask yourself: How strong is my emotion-
al awareness and control? How effective-
ly can I listen to others without judging
them? How much empathy do I have for
others? Can I encourage others to say
what they truly think in order to make the
best decisions?- Is there such a thing as a bad
decision?
It seems obvious to suggest that there are
decisions that we can confidently classify
as “good” or “bad”. It’s simply a question
of measuring outcomes, isn’t it? For ex-
ample, most investment decisions can
easily be measured using a return-on-
investment calculation. And there are in-
deed quantitative and qualitative meas-
ures that we can apply to evaluate the
quality of our decisions. But there are
complexities to analysing the efficacy of
a decision, and these need to be consid-
ered in order to determine the appro-
priate decision-making culture for your
team and organization.
What look like bad decisions can turn
out to be good decisions. For example, if
we fail badly and receive a harsh lesson, we
may learn humility and become stronger,
making us more likely to succeed in the
future. Unexpected benefits derive from
failure. The Sydney Opera House, as a
project, failed on every criterion of suc-
cess: over time, over budget and out of all
scope. It is now a landmark of Australian
culture and generates enormous revenues
from visitors. Likewise, most millionaires
fail several times before they succeed.