The Atlantic - October 2019

THE ATLANTIC OCTOBER 2019 27

DISPATCHES

World War II—took over in 1992, when

Bill Clinton was 46. By this precedent,

Generation X was ripe for a president in

2016. Three of the early Republican front-
      runners— Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and
      Scott Walker—would have entered the

Oval Office in their 40s. But each faltered,

and America replaced Barack Obama, a

young Boomer, with Donald Trump, an

older Boomer. Rather than choose a gen-

erational successor, America elected a

candidate 15 years older than the presi-

dent he replaced, the largest such jump

in American history.

Now Gen Xers have another shot.

Many of the 2020 presidential contend-

ers who sparked early enthusiasm—Cory

Booker, Beto O’Rourke, Kirsten Gilli-

brand, Julián Castro, and Kamala Harris—

were born between the mid-1960s and

1980, the span that defines Generation X.

(Harris, born in 1964, is on its cusp.) But as

of midsummer, with the exception of Har-

ris, they’re all below 5 percent in national

polls. The result is a top tier of candidates

that, in addition to Harris, includes three

who are roughly Trump’s age—Joe Biden,

Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren—

and Pete Buttigieg, a Millennial.

If a Gen Xer doesn’t win in 2020, there

will be another chance in 2024. But by

that time the field may be crowded with

Millennials— born from 1981 to 1996—

whose ranks include Buttigieg, Alexan-

dria Ocasio-Cortez, and rising Repub-

lican stars such as Representatives Dan

Crenshaw and Matt Gaetz. Sandwiched

between two larger and more politically

consequential generations—Boomers and

Millennials—Generation X may never

produce a president at all.

This electoral weakness isn’t coinci-

dental. It reflects an ideological problem.

Rubio, Cruz, Walker, Booker, O’Rourke,

Castro, and Harris all entered adult-

hood between the Reagan and Clinton

eras, and launched their political careers

around the turn of the millennium. That

means they likely began forming their

political beliefs at a time when the Repub-

lican Party had a strong pro-immigration

wing and leading Democrats embraced

free trade, tough anti-crime policies,

and charter schools. Then, as they came

closer to running for president, an ideo-

logical earthquake hit.

Since 2016, the Democratic Party has

lurched left. Nativists have taken over

the GOP. Among activists in both par-

ties, views that were once mainstream

are now widely reviled. Gen X politicians

have responded by either downplaying or

repudiating their prior positions. That’s

un fortunate, because not everything

that leading Republicans and Democrats

• POLITICS

THE LOST GENERATION

Gen X may never produce a president.

That’s bad news for Americans of all ages.

BY PETER BEINART

F

OR ALMOST 60 YEARS, two gener-

ations have held the American presi-

dency. The Greatest Generation—born

in the early 20th century—first won the

White House in 1960, when John F. Ken-

nedy was 43. Baby Boomers— born after

Illustration by OLIVER MUNDAY