Barron\'s - 16.09.2019

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September 16, 2019 BARRON’S 15


A SOFT LANDING?


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The FOMC announces its monetary-policy


decision. Wall Street widely expects the central


bank to cut its federal-funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point, to 1.75%-2%.


Wednesday


Monday 9/


Japanese marketsare closed in ob-


servance of Respect for the Aged Day.


Coca-Cola holdsan investor meeting


in London to discuss its approach to


sustainability.


The Federal ReserveBank of New


York releases its Empire State Manu-


facturing Survey for September. Econ-


omists forecast a 3.5 reading, roughly


even with the previous two months’


data.


Tuesday 9/


Adobe, Chewy,andFedExreport


quarterly results.


KLA and Mascohold investor days


in New York.


The 74th United NationsGeneral


Assembly convenes in New York.


The National Associationof Home


Builders releases its NAHB/Wells


Fargo Housing Market Index for


September. Consensus estimates are


for a 66 reading, even with August. The


survey suggests home builders are still


bullish about the single-family housing


market for the next six months.


Wednesday 9/


General Mills reportsearnings for


the first quarter of fiscal 2020.


The Census Bureaureports residen-


tial-construction data for August. Ex-


pectations are for a seasonally adjusted


annual rate of 1.25 million housing


starts, up from July’s 1.19 million.


Building permits are seen coming in at


1.3 million, about even with July’s data.


Thursday 9/


Darden Restaurantsholds a


conference call to discuss earnings.


The Bank of Englandand Bank of


Japan announce their monetary-policy


decisions. Both central banks are ex-


pected to keep their key short-term


interest rates unchanged at 0.75% and


negative 0.1%, respectively.


Nike holdsits annual meeting of


shareholders in Beaverton, Ore.


Navistar InternationalandSeagate


Technologyhold investor days in


Lisle, Ill., and New York, respectively.


The Conference Boardreleases its


Leading Economic Index for August.


Economists forecast a 0.1% rise, after


a0.5%jumpinJuly.


The National Associationof Real-


tors reports existing-home sales for


August. Consensus estimates are for a


seasonally adjusted annual rate of


5.4 million, even with July’s figure.


Friday 9/


The Federal Reservereleases its


Financial Accounts of the United


States for the second quarter. In the


first quarter, household net worth


jumped 4.5%, to $108.6 trillion, the


largest quarterly gain since 2004. Net


worth is unlikely to rise as much in


the second quarter. The S&P 500


returned 4.3%, after a 13.6% gain in


the March quarter.


ATrouble


Area in Tech


After leading the tech parade for much of the year,


software stocks have run into some turbulence. The


S&P 500 software index, a group headlined byMicro-


soft,Salesforce.com, andAdobe,isdownover4%


since peaking in July, underperforming the rest of tech.


As the momentum trade seized up this past week,


software stocks were hit particularly hard. The iShares


Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (ticker: IGV) fell


1.5% on Monday even as the broad market squeezed out


a gain.


Barron’swarned that software stocks were looking


frothy, just as they peaked in July. Much of the group


has little or no earnings to report, and, at the time, the


average stock was valued at more than seven times an-


nual sales versus just two times for the S&P 500. Since


the story, the iShares software ETF is down 7%.


Software investors will get some new data to digest


next week when Adobe reports earnings on Tuesday


after the market’s close. The Photoshop creator is down


11% from its July peak, even though Wall Street is ex-


pecting another strong quarter from the software giant,


with 20%-plus revenue growth and a 14% gain in year-


over-year earnings, to $1.97 per share.


The company has a history of outperforming those


estimates. Adobe’s per-share earnings have come in


ahead of consensus estimates in 20 of the past 21 quar-


ters, according to FactSet. During that period, Adobe


shares are up 312%. At a recent $278, the stock trades at


30 times projected earnings for the next 12 months, just


below a five-year average multiple of 31.—Evie Liu


Cooling Off


Sincepeakinginmidsummer,the


iSharesExpandedTech-Software


SectorETF(IGV)hasdeclined7%.


But Still Hot


Wall Street expects Adobe sales


to be up more than 20% for a


15th straight quarter.


Jan. ’


2017


Q


2018


Q


2019


Q


2018


Q


May Sept.


1


220


$


2


$3 billion


3Q consensus


forecast


180


160


0


200


Source: FactSet


Source: FactSet


Quarterly revenue


Day Consensus Estimate Year Ago

T

Adobe (3Q) $1.97 $1.

Apogee Enterprises (2Q) 0.61 0.

Fedex (1Q) 3.18 3.

Cracker Barrel Old Cuntry Str (4Q) 2.48 2.

More Earnings on Page M

Coming Earnings


Day Consensus Est Last Period

T August Industrial Production 0.2% -0.2%

W August Housing Starts 1,250,000 1,191,

TH August Existing Home Sales 5,380,000 5,420,

August Leading Indicators 0.0% 0.5%

Unless otherwise indicated. a-Advanced; f-Final; p-Preliminary;
r-Revised

Source: FactSet

Consensus Estimate


For more information about coming economic reports - and
what they mean - go to Barron’s free Economic Calendar at
Elias Stein http://www.Barrons.com

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