Barron\'s - 16.09.2019

M34 BARRON’S September 16, 2019

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedSep11:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 3,590,108 + 3,016 -422,512

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... -62

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 1 .... -41

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit 87 -10 -142

Float -169 + 353 -6

OtherF.R.Assets 21,422 + 1,761 -2,234

TotalFedCredit# 3,726,610 + 4,648 -443,946

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,039 + 14 + 366

Total 3,813,605 + 4,579 -443,892

Currencyincirc 1,766,301 + 5,592 + 79,408

Treas.CashHldgs 163 + 5 -45

Treas.FedDeposits 185,342 + 36,602 -118,312

ForeignFedDeposits 5,256 -14 ....

OtherFedDeposits 62,504 + 1,755 -2,413

OtherFRliab/cap 45,269 + 1,124 + 68

Totalfactors 2,356,809 + 35,338 + 20,288

ReservesF.R.banks 1,456,796 -30,759 -464,180

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,453,061 + 2,050 + 31,255

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev. Wk.% Year

TwoWksEnded Sep11: Wk. Week Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 1,535,578 1,574,001 -2.44 1,969,839

Nonborrowed Res # 1,535,485 1,573,865 -2.44 1,969,584

Required Res ## 197,108 210,594 -6.40 183,238

ExcessReserves: 1,338,470 1,363,407 -1.83 1,786,601

Borrowed Reserves 93 136 -31.62 255

Free Reserves ### 1,338,377 1,363,271 -1.83 1,786,346

MonetaryBase 3,235,681 3,257,771 -0.68 3,594,313

#Fedsupplyofpermanentreservesprovided.

##Demandforreservestobackdeposits.

### Free reserves equal excess reserves minus discount window bor-

rowingsotherthanextendedcredit.Freereservesareshorthandmethod

ofdeterminingthedegreeofeaseofFedpolicy,orwhentheyarenegative

netborrowedreserves,tightness.

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 9/13 9/6 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1503.10 1523.70 1201.95

Silver,troyounce 17.65 18.77 14.15

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1551.68 59.68 4.00

MapleLeaf 1566.60 74.60 5.00

MexicanPeso 1806.90 8.00 0.44

AustriaCrown 1465.46 3.00 0.21

AustriaPhil 1566.60 74.60 5.00

U.S.Eagles 1566.60 74.60 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice1492.00

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 9/12 9/5 Ago Chg.

550.64382.52 Gold mining 518.52 545.94388.56 –5.02

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus BullishSentiment 58% 56% 57%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 33.1% 28.6% 26.1%

Bearish 31.3 39.5 42.2

Neutral 35.6 31.9 31.7

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 48% 46% 45%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 45.1% 48.6% 51.0%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 36,262 r51,992 29,934

Municipal (z) 9,498 r8,561 10,033

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

2.89 2.64 3.91

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.62 3.40 4.83

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

79.9 77.8 81.1

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

3990.27 4254.92 3359.48

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3022.86 3062.07 2703.83

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

299.46 305.39 268.16

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.85 2.97 4.06

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.60 3.54 4.08

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

–.63 –.36 –1.80

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 3.03 2.89 4.10

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedSeptember2

M1(seas.adjusted) 3,872.6r3,824.13,840.0 0.85

M1(notadjusted) 4,045.4r3,911.43,934.6 2.82

M2(seas.adjusted) 14,998.9r14,958.314,245.6 5.29

M2(notadjusted) 14,987.7r14,870.014,249.1 5.18

TwoWeeksendedAugust28

M1Multiplier(St.LouisFed) 1.168 1.161 1.033 13.07

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedAugust

M1(seas.adjusted) 3,839.5 3,852.1 3,702.8 3.69

M2(seas.adjusted) 14,952.8r14,871.214,217.0 5.18

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

O N D J F M A M J J AS

Barron's Gold Mining Index (518.52)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

No Place to Hide:With stocks rising and

trade tensions easing, gold prices receded

1.4% on the week, to $1,503 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13

NYSE .64 .76 .85 1.24 .71

NYSEAmerican 1.16 .99 .69 1.08 .94

Nasdaq 1.03 1.12 1.22 1.17 1.16

SouthKorea(Won) .0008477 .0008384 1179.72 1192.77

SriLanka(Rupee) .0055 .0055 180.3100 180.9100

Sweden(Krona) .1041 .1037 9.6100 9.6468

Switzerland(Franc) 1.0099 1.0127 .9902 .9875

Taiwan(Dollar) .03233 .03206 30.931 31.196

Thailand(Baht) .03278 .03265 30.510 30.630

Turkey(New Lira)-d .1759 .1750 5.6861 5.7134

Ukraine(Hryvnia) .0404 .0399 24.7690 25.0580

U.K.(Pound) 1.2503 1.2285 .7998 .8140

Uruguay(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02736 .02726 36.550 36.690

----

Euro 1.1073 1.1030 .9031 .9066

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 23 / 4 23 / 4 21 / 2

PrimeRate(base) 51 / 4 51 / 4 5

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 27 / 50 23 / 25 147 / 50

Avg weekly auction-c 2.13 2.12 1.92

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 1.962 1.972 2.151

13 weeks, Auction Rate 1.920 1.930 2.110

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 1.873 1.873 2.323

26 weeks, Auction Rate 1.825 1.825 2.265
Avg weekly auction-c 1.93 1.95 2.10

BrokerCallRate 4 4 3 3/4

BankersAcceptances

1 month 2.15 2.15 2.05

2 months 2.15 2.15 2.15

3 months 2.15 2.15 2.27

6 months 2.05 2.05 2.53

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.490 -0.507 -0.395

3 months -0.423 -0.482 -0.356

6 months -0.397 -0.457 -0.318

12 months -0.320 -0.386 -0.222

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 2.02 2.05 2.16

3 months 2.14 2.13 2.34

6 months 2.07 2.03 2.57

12 months 2.05 1.95 2.88

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 3.95 3.95 3.70

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.50 0.50 0.50

Britain 0.75 0.75 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 3.19 2.94 4.28

Bank money market-z 0.23 0.23 0.20

Interest Checking-z 0.08 0.08 0.08

6-Month Certif-z 0.59 0.59 0.38

12-Month Certif-z 0.85 0.86 0.76
30 Month Accounts-z 0.91 0.92 0.99

5-Year Certificates-z 1.20 1.21 1.31

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby

theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

0.60

0.50

3.80

3.15

2.50

1.85

1.20

0.55

S&P 100 CBOE

S O N D J F M A M J J A S

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source: CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100

CBOE s

s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

Friday,September13,2019

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina(Peso)-y .0178 .0179 56.0807 55.8136

Australia(Dollar) .6878 .6848 1.4539 1.4603

Bahrain(Dinar) 2.6524 2.6521 .3770 .3771

Brazil(Real) .2446 .2462 4.0875 4.0621

Bulgaria(Lev) .5663 .5637 1.7659 1.7740

Canada(Dollar) .7525 .7594 1.3290 1.3168

Chile(Peso) .001413 .001405 707.50 711.70

China(Renminbi) .1413 .1405 7.0795 7.1157

Colombia(Peso) .0002978 .0002979 3357.60 3356.49

Croatia(Kuna) .1497387 .1489891 6.68 6.71

Czech.Rep.(Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercialrate .04284 .04267 23.343 23.434

Denmark(Krone) .1483 .1478 6.7428 6.7674

EcuadorUSDollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt(Pound)-y .0609 .0606 16.4265 16.4961

HongKong(Dollar) .1279 .1276 7.8211 7.8397

Hungary(Forint) .003342 .003341 299.20 299.27

Iceland(Krona) .008031 .007917 124.52 126.31

India(Rupee) .01408 .01395 71.037 71.680

Indonesia(Rupiah) .0000716 .0000709 13965 14095

Israel(Shekel) .2833 .2842 3.5293 3.5183

Japan(Yen) .009252 .009353 108.09 106.92

Kazakhstan(Tenge) .002586 .002577 386.67 388.11

Kuwait(Dinar) 3.2879 3.2888 .3041 .3041

Macau(Pataca) .1241 .1238 8.0609 8.0794

Malaysia(Ringgit)-b .2399 .2392 4.1685 4.1805

Mexico(Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0515 .0512 19.4059 19.5352

NewZealand(Dollar) .6377 .6425 1.5681 1.5564

Norway(Krone) .1113 .1114 8.9855 8.9758

Oman(Rial) 2.5974 2.5974 .3850 .3850

Pakistan(Rupee) .00639 .00641 156.580 156.000

Philippines(Peso) .01925 .01930 51.941 51.826

Poland(Zloty) .2561 .2542 3.9049 3.9339

Qatar(Rial) .2749 .2746 3.6381 3.6416

Russia(Ruble)-a .01552 .01520 64.427 65.801

SaudiArabia(Riyal) .2666 .2667 3.7513 3.7499

Singapore(Dollar) .7282 .7239 1.3733 1.3815

SouthAfrica(Rand) .0686 .0675 14.5778 14.8048

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.