94WE HAVE A SERIOUS PROBLEMis emerging as a cautionary example of the dangers of the new climate.
Summers in the Gulf are already about as hot as they can get and still
support human life. Coping, for now, involves more fossil fuel– based
cooling, creating a climate- damaging feedback loop. If temperatures
continue to climb, summers that are now at the upper end of unpleasant
will become unbearable. Climate scientists predict that by 2070 or so,
global warming will push high temperatures in the Gulf beyond levels
that humans can tolerate. Residents will eventually be forced to flee to
cooler parts of the world.^25 The summer of 2016 was a harbinger. On
July 22, the daytime high temperature in Kuwait reached a smothering
129.2°F (54°C), setting a new record for the Eastern Hemisphere.^26 At
those levels, air conditioners become life- support systems. A power out-
age is more than an annoyance. It can be fatal.
What actions have Gulf regimes taken? One of them— a move toward
the generation of renewable electricity in the UAE and Saudi Arabia—
has produced a lot of hype, mostly unwarranted. BP data show that in
2016, the UAE consumed 137 TWh of electricity, of which just 0.3 TWh
was generated by solar technology. Saudi Arabia’s solar share was even
less, just 0.1 TWh of a total of 330 TWh. In other words, the two mon-
archies leading the way in Gulf renewables provided less than one- tenth
of 1 percent of total power via those means. None of the other Gulf
monarchies produced enough nonfossil power even to reach statisti-
cal relevance.^27
In coming years, zero- carbon solar and nuclear power— and later,
wind— will make important contributions to electricity production in
the Gulf. But these developments will be overshadowed by continued
expansion of the fossil fuel grid. Exhibit A is Dubai’s giant 4.8 GW Has-
syan coal- fired power plant, funded and built by China. By 2023, Dubai
will import more than 10 million tons of coal per year to power the first
2.4 GW of capacity.^28 The 20 million tons of CO 2 Hassyan sends into
the atmosphere each year will push the Gulf ’s carbon footprint to new
heights.
The fact that Dubai is turning to coal, the only fossil fuel not found
on the Arabian Peninsula, illustrates the tension created by demand
growth and subsidy reform. Once considered preposterous, coal use in