THE POLITICS OF REFORM151fiscal buffers.^35 By 2018, less than four years into the lower oil price envi-
ronment, some countries had undergone multiple rounds of subsidy
cuts, as figure 9.3 shows.
A third rationale for reforms is external pressure. Multilaterals have
campaigned to end climate- damaging fossil fuel subsidies, formalizing
this commitment in the Paris climate accord of 2015. These demands
made it easier for ruling sheikhs to act, by providing convenient politi-
cal cover that helped deflect blame for unpopular policy.
A fourth reason is the changing leadership in the Gulf. As seen in
Saudi Arabia, the influx of younger leaders brought a push for change.
The 2013 accession of then thirty- three- year- old Sheikh Tamim bin
Hamad al- Thani in Qatar and the gradual assumption of power by fifty-
five- year- old Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al- Nahyan in Abu Dhabi led
to a reassessment of social benefits in those countries as well.^36 Sheikh
Tamim decried the rentier mentality in a 2015 speech, saying that oil
wealth had caused citizens to become dependent on the state “to pro-
vide for everything, which reduces the motivation of individuals to take
initiatives and be progressive.” He said the state could no longer deliver
all of its people’s needs in perpetuity.^37
A fifth factor is the chaos that has crept across the region. The Kuwait
mosque bombing was but one example. Islamic State terrorists and anti-
government rebel forces held territory in neighboring countries— Yemen,
Iraq, and Syria— and had launched attacks inside the monarchies. The
violent spillovers rallied Gulf citizens around their ruling families for
protection, increasing their willingness to sacrifice.
A final enabler is the realization that citizens would accept higher
prices without acting against their governments or demanding an increase
in democratic representation, as academics have long postulated.
It is important to state that the reforms have just begun, that prices
on most energy products have not been fully rationalized, and that there
remains plenty of opportunity for citizens to decry their lost benefits and
demand replacements— or democracy. In 2018, Iran underwent its most
fervent unrest since 2009, and the loss of subsidies— on food as well as
fuel— was among the grievances cited.^38 There is no guarantee that Gulf
citizens won’t follow Iran’s example.