154THE POLITICS OF REFORMcomplaints about subsidy reforms that may have been tolerated in the
past became unacceptable.
In short, the evidence shows that neither governments nor citizens are
following the script laid out by rentier state theory. Governments are tak-
ing away supposedly sacrosanct benefits, and citizens are not rising up
and demanding democracy. These developments imply that rentier the-
ory needs updating. First, as regards subsidy reform, we should acknowl-
edge that the domestic subsidization of primary exports comprises an
encumbrance on the economy. Left intact over the long term, domestic
resource distribution can destabilize the governance structure. Regimes
should be expected to take action to lessen the strain. Second, academics’
central misunderstanding about subsidies is that they are inflexible. By
portraying subsidies as rights, theory implies that they cannot be reformed
without upsetting the stability of the entire system. Like Dr. al- Rumhy,
the Omani energy minister, I argue that subsidies must be reformed to
save the system. Indeed, as we have seen, governments alarmed by domes-
tic demand have already moved against subsidies in the interest of pre-
serving exports.
A simple amendment can bring theory into line with these develop-
ments. Academics should discard the portrayal of subsidies as “rights”
and instead describe them as “customary privileges.” (At some point,
energy subsidies may become “former privileges.”) This allows for
retraction or replacement of social- contract benefits that are traded
for regime support. These amendments provide theoretical allowance
for the reforms that have already begun in the rentier heartland of the
Gulf. Thus improved, theory can anticipate the likelihood for regimes
to continue to streamline social welfare policies in the interest of pre-
serving power.
SECURITY IS THE NEW DEMOCRACYDuring the opening stages of the Arab Spring, as autocrats tumbled in
Tunisia and Egypt without mass carnage, many Arabs, including some