INTRODUCTIONgrowth. Saudi Arabia consumes ten times more oil than the global aver-
age per unit of GDP.^2 The situation in neighboring monarchies is no less
startling. For economies based on oil exports, such inefficiency is bad
news. If these trends continue, the Gulf monarchies could lose their long-
held roles as the world’s premier energy suppliers.
The prodigious burning of fossil fuels in the Gulf not only is under-
mining national economies but also is a major global source of the
greenhouse gases warming the climate— including, disastrously, their
own. The fiery summers of 2016 and 2017 have tormented inhabitants
with record- setting temperatures above 120°F (50°C).
Carbon dioxide emissions from the Gulf have grown by an average of
5 percent per year since 1990 versus 2 percent for the world as a whole.^3 In
2015, the International Energy Agency joined the chorus of multilateral
organizations calling for reductions in Middle East oil consumption and
associated emissions. Global climate goals cannot be met without a major
change in behavior in the Gulf. Nor can climate objectives be met with-
out a reduction in oil demand globally.
For a century, oil has been the world’s paramount fuel: it is energy
dense, plentiful, and simple to transport and use. It has held a virtual
monopoly over transportation since the early 1900s, when Henry Ford’s
gasoline- powered Model T proved superior to Edison’s electric vehicles
and the coal- powered Stanley Steamer. While natural gas and coal both
compete with other fuels and technologies in power generation, oil has
no ready substitutes. Before the ascendance of climate concerns, the only
times humanity sought oil substitutes such as biofuels and electric vehi-
cles were when oil prices spiked. Now, the battle against carbon dioxide
has created an active market for oil substitutes, no matter how low the
price of oil.
The Gulf countries are caught in the pincers of a climate dilemma. On
the one hand, the region is one of the most climate stressed and depen-
dent on greenhouse gas mitigation. Higher temperatures could render it
uninhabitable within the current century. On the other hand, oil exports
remain the region’s economic livelihood and the source of its longstand-
ing protection by the United States. Actions to address climate change—
specifically, global efforts to reduce consumption of fossil fuels— pose