74UNNATURALLY COOLPopulation growth in the Gulf has been a big factor. The number of
inhabitants has quintupled over four decades, as a result of high birth-
rates and large- scale immigration. Combined population in the six states
rose from 8.2m in 1971 to 54m in 2016, an annual growth rate of
4.3 percent— nearly triple the global average.
Rising individual income is another key predictor of demand growth.
When incomes rise, people buy more energy- consuming devices and can
afford more fuel and energy services. In the Gulf, income growth has
compounded the effect of rising population. Per capita GDP in the Gulf
has grown by an average of 2.2 percent per year since 1981. Since 2000,
the rise in oil prices drove up per capita incomes by an average of 4.9 per-
cent per year (see table 5.4).^15
The effects of the hot and humid climate in the Gulf also play a role,
especially in encouraging the use of air conditioning. The climate
hasn’t changed much over time, but in combination with rising popu-
lations and incomes, preferences have. Residents now have the money
and the inclination to buy air conditioners and swimming- pool pumps,
and large- scale immigration has brought new arrivals with lower heat
tolerance.
TABLE 5.4 Growth in GDP per capita and oil demand since 1971GDP per
capita 1971
(curr US$)GDP per
capita 2016
(curr US$)Ye a r l y
growth
rateOil
demand
1971
(Mb/d)Oil
demand
2015Ye a r l y
growth
rateBahrain $8,584* $22,354 2.7% 15 64 3.3%
Kuwait $4,784 $28,975* 4.2% 70 435 4.2%
Oman $397 $14,982 8.4% 25 187 4.7%
Qatar $3,280 $59,331 6.6% 2 252 11.5%
Saudi Arabia $1,127 $20,029 6.6% 307 3,415 5.6%
UA E $27, 59 0 $37, 622 0. 8% 3 835 13.6%
Source: “Worldwide Governance Indicators,” interactive dataset (Washington: World Bank,
2 0 1 7 ) , h t t p : / / i n f o. w o r l d b a n k. o r g / g o v e r n a n c e / w g i /. I n t e r n a t i o n a l E n e r g y A g e n c y , “ O i l I n f o r m a -
tion” (Statistics database, Paris: IEA, 2017). (1980, 1975, 2015)