BBC Focus - 09.2019

OVERPOPULATION FEATURE

In the first stage, there is a low

population but a high birth rate,

which is balanced by a high

death rate. People are dying of

famine, and there is a high child

mortality rate. Life is short and

harsh and there is a high

incentive for having lots of

children, because most are

going to die. In the second

stage, the death rate starts to

decline due to improved health

measures, such as beer food,

clean water and vaccination.

Birth rates remain high and the

population starts to rise. The

third stage sees the birth rate

start to drop due to social

innovations such as educating

girls, family planning and

moving to cities. By the fourth

stage, as seen in most of the

Western world, there is a large

population that is still growing

slowly, with a low birth rate

and a low death rate. The fih

stage is still theoretical, but

shows a high population that

starts to slowly fall, due to low

birth rates and ageing.

Some countries, such as the

UK, moved through the stages

slowly. Others, like China,

passed through the

demographic transition model

extremely quickly. However,

the demographic transition is

not inevitable, and requires

investments, policies,

education and support.

occurs. This increases the stakes for ensuring they
are protected yet further.
“If you actually look at their impact together,
educating girls and family planning, or as I prefer to
talk about, closing the gaps on access to reproductive
healthcare, then it actually turns out ... to be the
number one solution,” says Wilkinson.
Access to good quality fa mily pla n ning is
recognised by the UN as a human right and is
known to benefit the health and welfare of women
and their children. It also brings down fertility rates.
Similarly, women with a higher education level tend
to have fewer, healthier children and manage their
own reproductive health more actively.
Education and reproductive healthcare are things
that women and girls should have, says Wilkinson,
noting that around the world there are still 132
million school-age girls not in school, and 214

million women who say they have unmet needs for

contraception. “They [education and reproductive

healthcare] happen to have these positive ripple

effects when we start to add up the individual

decisions that a woman or a family makes across

the world, and over time start to have real impacts

at scale,” she says.

At the same time, it is crucial to avoid the dangerous

and problematic territory where the reproductive

choices of women are controlled or determined for

them one way or the other, she adds.

Similarly, for those in richer count ries who

may be considering having fewer children due to

climate change, the most important thing is that

it is a personal decision. “It’s got to be something

you choose and you’re happy to choose,” says Olliff.

“I’m just trying to raise awareness to make more

people feel happy about choosing that decision.”

by J O C E LY N

TIMPERLEY

(@j l o is t f )

Jocelyn is a freelance

climate and science

journalist.

STAGE 1 STAGE 2 STAGE 3 STAGE 4 STAGE 5

TOTALPOPULATION

DEATHRATE

BIRTHRATE

* While the theoretical fih stage

usually shows a falling population,

some argue that a modern

environment exerts a positive

pressure on reproduction, so

population will increase

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL

This model is widely accepted in the social sciences to map the relationship beween fertility and development