198 Chapter 6Chapter 6 || Public OpinionPublic Opinion6
One of the foundations of democracy is the belief that public opinion matters: while
in office, elected officials act in accordance with their constituents’ demands or else
face the possibility of being defeated in the next election. Every election season,
candidates, political parties, journalists, and political scientists take thousands of polls
in an attempt to determine who is likely to vote and what sorts of arguments, slogans,
and platforms will appeal to these voters.
According to political scientist V. O. Key, basing policy and election strategy on
public opinion makes sense because “[i]n the large, the electorate behaves about as
rationally and responsibly as we should expect, given the clarity and the alternatives
presented to it and the character of the information available to it.”^1 The expectation
is that citizens’ evaluations of what government is doing, their ideas of what they
would like done differently, and their thoughts about what they like and don’t like more
broadly all have some basis in reality. And there is an upside to the information that
polls provide. The only way to assess whether government follows the wishes of the
people is to have some idea of what people really want—to actually develop surveys,
measure public opinion, and compare it to the policy choices made in Washington.
However, a look at the results of some mass surveys might lead you to comedian
and political commentator Jon Stewart’s concern that public opinion is fickle and
only loosely connected to reality. For example, a 2017 study found that a significant
percentage of Republican voters believed that Barack Obama was a Muslim—and
a significant percentage of Democrats believed that the government had advance“To all Americans, in every city near and far, small and large, from
mountain to mountain, and from ocean to ocean, hear these words: You
will never be ignored again. Your voice, your hopes, and your dreams,
will define our American destiny.”
President Donald Trump“You have to remember one thing about the will of the people: it wasn’t
that long ago that we were swept away by the Macarena.”
Jon Stewart, comedianSignificant percentages of Americans
hold politically consequential beliefs
that are factually untrue. For example,
large numbers of people believe that
Barack Obama is not a U.S. citizen,
and therefore was not eligible to be
president. Can we trust public opinion?Public Opinion
What do the people want?
How should we measure
opinion?
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