204 Chapter 6Chapter 6 || Public OpinionPublic OpinionEvents
Although socialization often influences individuals’ fairly stable core beliefs, this
does not mean that these beliefs or opinions are fixed. All kinds of events—from
everyday interactions to traumatic, life-changing disasters—can capture people’s
attention and force them to revise their understanding of politics and the role of
government.
Some events that shape beliefs are specific, individual experiences. For
example, someone who believes that he or she managed to get a college degree
only because of government grants and guaranteed student loans might favor a
large, activist government that provides a range of benefits to its citizens. And
individuals’ support for same-sex marriage is strongly inf luenced by the number
of people they know who are gay or lesbian.^15 Major national or world events may
also shape beliefs. For example, after the September 11 terrorist attacks, many
citizens became more willing to restrict civil liberties to reduce the chances of
future attacks.^16
Some events have a greater impact on public opinion than others, and some people
are more likely than others to change their views. Political scientist John Zaller has
shown that opinion changes generated by an event or some other new information
are more likely when an individual is unfamiliar with the event or information
yet considers it to be important. In such cases, the individual does not have a set of
preexisting principles or other considerations with which to interpret the event or
information. People who do not have strong beliefs are also more likely to change their
opinions than are people who hold strong opinions.^17Group Identity
Individuals’ opinions are also influenced by their social categories or groups, such
as gender, race, income, and education level. People learn about politics from the
people around them. Therefore, those who live in the same region or who were born
in the same era might have common beliefs because they experienced the same
historical events at similar points in their lives or learned political viewpoints from
one another. In the United States, opinions on many issues are correlated with the
state or region where a person grew up. For example, until the 1970s relatively few
native white southerners identified with the Republican Party.^18 Even today, native
white southerners tend to have distinctly different attitudes (such as less support
for affirmative action policies and lower support for government involvement
in creating racial equality) compared to similar people from other regions of
t he cou nt r y.^19
In some cases, group identity is a function of age. Changes in attitudes about
same-sex marriage over the last decade illustrate this phenomenon (see Figure 6.1).
The figure shows that overall support for allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry
(or allowing civil unions) has more than doubled in the last 15 years. Moreover, while
opinions have shifted in all age cohorts, younger Americans are much more likely to
express support than are older Americans—in part because they are much more likely
to know someone who is gay or a lesbian and in part because they are likely to have
other characteristics that predispose them to favor same-sex marriage, such as not
being regular churchgoers.
Individuals also may rely on others who “look like” them as a source of opinions.
Political scientists Donald Green, Bradley Palmquist, and Eric Schickler, for example,argue that group identities shape partisanship: when people are trying to decide
between being a Republican or a Democrat, they think about which demographic
groups are associated with each party and pick the party that has more members from
the groups they identify with.^20
It is important to examine group variations in public opinion because candidates
and political consultants often formulate their campaign strategies in terms of
groups. For example, analyses of the three previous presidential elections show
that Obama’s and Hillary Clinton’s electoral strategies were shaped by the goal of
attracting support from young Americans, African Americans, Latinos, and women.^21
In contrast, Republican presidential candidates targeted regular churchgoers, as well
as older voters and people living in rural areas.The probability that you will be
contacted to participate in a typical
national poll is.001%
Source: General Social Survey Data
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