How do voters decide? 329“Wave” elections generally occur when a large number of voters vote against
incumbents because of poor economic conditions, political scandal, or a costly,
unpopular war. In 2010, many Americans were concerned about the state of the
economy, the size of corporate bailouts, the apparent ineffectiveness of economic
stimulus legislation, and the enactment of health care reform, and they blamed
the party in power (Democrats) for all of these outcomes. As a result, a significant
percentage of Americans voted against Democratic congressional candidates, either
as a protest vote, because they disapproved of their performance, or as an effort to
put different individuals in charge in the hope that new members would bring about
improved conditions. Ultimately, Republicans gained several seats in the Senate and
regained majority control of the House with a nearly 80-seat gain. In contrast, 2018 was
not a wave election: while Democrats won additional House seats and majority control,
their gains were comparable to historical averages. Moreover, Democrats also lost
several Senate seats in 2018.
Even in wave elections, reelection rates for members of Congress (the percentage
of incumbents who successfully run for reelection) are generally high, as Figure 9.3
shows. Over the last generation, neither party has had a House reelection rate less
than 80 percent; even in 2006, when 100 percent of Democratic House incumbents
running for reelection won, the reelection rate for House Republican incumbents
was almost 90 percent. In wave elections such as the one in 2010, one party’s House
reelection rate is significantly higher than that of the other party’s; in normal
elections such as the one in 2014, the House reelection rates are similar and approach
100 percent. Reelection rates for Senate incumbents are somewhat lower but show
the same patterns.
Reelection rates for members of Congress are so high because the members work
to insulate themselves from electoral challenges through tactics we discussed in this
chapter and will discuss further in Chapter 11. They raise large sums of campaign cash
well in advance of upcoming elections, use redistricting to give themselves a safe district
populated by supporters, and enact pork-barrel legislation that provides governmentTA B L E
Likelihood of Supporting a Candidate Who... More Likely Less Likely Wouldn’t Matter 9. 5Has served in the military 50% 4% 45%
Attended a prestigious university 20 6 74
Is Catholic 16 8 75
Has Washington experience 22 31 46
Is an Evangelical Christian 22 20 55
Is Mormon 5 23 69
Has used marijuana in the past 6 20 74
Had personal financial troubles 8 41 49
Is an atheist 6 51 41
Is gay or lesbian 4 26 69
Had an extramarital affair in the past 3 37 58Candidate Traits
and Voter ChoiceMany Americans cast votes based
on candidates’ personal character-
istics and background. What sorts
of candidates are advantaged by
this practice—and what sorts are
disadvantaged?Source: Pew Research Center, “Faith and
the 2016 Campaign,” http://www.pewforum.org,
(accessed 3/18/18).Full_10_APT_64431_ch09_296-339.indd 329 16/11/18 1:46 PM