332 Chapter 9 | Electionsup for reelection (plus two open seats). Republican control of the House was thought
to be largely secure, given the party’s substantial 32-seat majority and a relatively low
number of electorally vulnerable members on both sides.
While there were clear differences between the presidential candidates on issues
ranging from immigration reform to gun control, there was an even bigger difference in
their diagnoses of what was needed to effect policy change in Washington. The message
from Clinton’s campaign was that partisan conflict reflected sincere differences of
opinion, differences that often cannot be compromised. In contrast, Donald Trump
argued that his management experience and deal-making talents would give him a
unique ability to broker deals. Trump also referred to Clinton as “Crooked Hillary,”
arguing that, because Clinton had worked as a senator and secretary of state, she was at
least partly responsible for policy failures and gridlock in Washington.
By mid-October, Trump had lost significant support from Independents and
Republicans due to several allegations of sexual harassment and assault and because of
his poor performance during the three debates. In the last two weeks of the campaign,
however, the polling gap between Trump and Clinton narrowed considerably, partly
driven by a reopening of the FBI investigation into Clinton’s use of a private e-mail server.
On Election Day, Trump benefited from significantly higher than expected turnout in
rural communities, which helped him win the Democratic strongholds of Michigan,
Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And while Clinton received strong support from African-
American, Latino, and younger voters (see Figure 9.4), lower than expected turnout
from these groups cost Clinton support. Clinton won more votes overall, but Trump
prevailed in the electoral college (see Figure 9.5). Notably, Trump won the election
despite receiving fewer votes than losing 2012 Republican candidate, Mitt Romney.
The overriding factor driving the 2016 results was turnout, especially the failure of
the Democrats’ get-out-the-vote drive compared to the much more modest Republican
effort. Trump did not improve on Mitt Romney’s poor showing with minority voters
in 2012, but lower turnout from these groups was a key factor in Clinton’s defeat.
Additionally, policy preferences on issues such as immigration reform and the
economy were drawn on strongly partisan lines. Vote decisions in 2016 were also
highly correlated with evaluations of President Obama (people critical of Obama
were more likely to vote for Trump), which makes sense given the importance of party
identification in shaping presidential approval.Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016
presidential campaign was a shock to
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