William_T._Bianco,_David_T._Canon]_American_Polit

Understanding the 2016 and 2018 elections 335

generate slightly increased enthusiasm among Republican voters, but had little impact

on most races. In the closing weeks of the campaign, most national-level predictions

were close to expectations at the beginning of the election cycle: Democrats were likely

to win a House majority, while Republicans would hold the Senate.

Within the parties, however, the campaign revealed important disagreements

on policy. In several Democratic primaries, liberal challengers unseated long-time

incumbent House members, including Joe Crowley (D-NY), who was Chair of the

Democratic Caucus. Many other Democratic challengers refused to commit to voting

for Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi as Speaker if Democrats regained the majority. On

the Republican side, several incumbents, including senators Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Bob

Corker (R-TN), retired in the face of strong conservative opposition.

The Election During the final weeks of the campaign, polls revealed that many

House and Senate seats were still in play, as President Trump also crisscrossed the

country, holding rallies in strongly Republican areas. In the end, the 2018 election met

expectations: Democrats gained a House majority by capturing Republican suburban

districts and capitalizing on Republican open seats. In Senate elections, Democrats

captured two seats (Nevada and Arizona) but lost other races, allowing Republicans to

retain their Senate majority.

Exit polls that asked respondents about their vote in House elections showed that,

for the most part, vote decisions reflected partisanship and opinions about President

Trump (see Table 9.6). The 2018 results also showed a strong gender gap, with higher

rates of Democratic voting among women, as well as a strong correlation of Democratic

voting with race and with education. Moreover, voters who ranked health care

The 2018 midterms favored

Republicans in the Senate because

they had fewer seats to defend.

However, Dean Heller (R-NV), the only

Republican senator up for reelection

in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016,

lost despite support from President

Trump.

Exit Polls

in the 2018

Elections

TA B L E

9.6

Note: Results data may not always add up to

100 percent due to rounding.

Source: 2018 CNN Exit Poll, http://www.cnn

.com/election/2018/exit-polls (accessed

11/7/18)

Democrat Republican

Approval of President Trump Approve (45%) 11% 88%

Disapprove (54%) 90 8

Most important issue Health care (41%) 75 23

Immigration (23%) 23 75

Economy (22%) 34 65

Gun policy (10%) 70 29

Gender Male (48%) 47 51

Female (52%) 59 40

Race White (72%) 44 56

Non-white (28%) 76 22

Education College graduate (41%) 59 39

Not college graduate

(59%)

49 49

Partisanship Democrats (37%) 95 4

Republicans (33%) 6 94

Independents (30%) 54 42

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