The EconomistSeptember 14th 2019 471K
atalina, a 20-year-oldnursing stu-
dent from Barquisimeto in north-west-
ern Venezuela, fled last year as living con-
ditions became intolerable. She spent 11
months in Peru, but her hosts were hostile
towards Venezuelan migrants, especially
women, and she found little work. So in
June she moved to Chile, arriving just as its
government tightened rules for Venezue-
lans entering the country and began expel-
ling those without the right papers. She
sneaked across the border at night, dread-
ing that she would step on a landmine
planted by Chile in the desert in the 1970s.
Now she is staying with a friend in Santia-
go, Chile’s capital, waiting for permission
to remain. “All I want is for my situation to
be regularised,” she says.
Katalina’s obstacle-strewn odyssey is
becoming the norm for Venezuelans join-
ing the 4m who have fled since 2014. Per-
haps half a million more have not been
counted because they sneaked across bor-
ders. On August 26th Ecuador became the
latest country to tighten entry require-
ments, joining Peru and Chile in obligingmost Venezuelans to present a passport
and evidence of a clean criminal record,
which are difficult to obtain. Brazil and Co-
lombia have so far kept their borders open.
Barriers will not stop Venezuelans from
fleeing chaos and repression at home. The
exodus could exceed 8m, a quarter of the
population, by the end of 2020 unless de-
mocracy and stability return, predicts the
Brookings Institution in Washington (see
Bello). Even then, not everyone will go
back; those who do will take time. “We are
looking at a complex set of needs for the
next two years, even if there is a political
solution today,” says Eduardo Stein, the
representative for Venezuelan migrants of
the un’s refugee agency and the Interna-
tional Organisation for Migration.
Until now, the largest displacement of
people in Latin America’s history has oc-curred without much international fuss. In
part that is because it has taken place most-
ly by land, unprompted by war or natural
disaster. Four-fifths of migrants have
stayed within the region (see map on next
page). The good grace with which most
neighbouring countries have received
them up to now has allowed others to ig-
nore the crisis. Outside donors have given
just $100 for each Venezuelan migrant,
compared with $5,000 for each of the 5.6m
refugees from Syria.
But as Venezuela’s crisis has dragged on,
destination countries are withdrawing
their initial warm welcome. Recent refu-
gees are poorer than those in earlier waves.
They are arriving in countries where eco-
nomic growth is slow, good jobs are scarce
and budgets for health and education are
stretched. Early promises to co-operate in
dealing with the flow of migrants are being
broken. Door-slamming adds to the num-
ber of unlawful migrants, who are vulner-
able to exploitation by employers and re-
cruitment by criminal groups.
It increases the burden on Colombia,
which remains the most open of the desti-
nation countries. That is partly because it
cannot police its 2,200km (1,400-mile) bor-
der with Venezuela. The influx adds to dis-
order on a frontier already plagued by Ven-
ezuelan-backed guerrilla groups. Now
Colombia must cope with a build-up on its
southern border of refugees who had
hoped to enter Peru and Ecuador. Although
Venezuelans are likely to boost economicVenezuela’s exodusDarkness falls
BOGOTÁ, LIMA, PORT OF SPAIN, QUITO, SANTIAGO AND SÃO PAULO
Countries to which Venezuelans are fleeing are becoming less welcomingThe Americas
48 A Chinese restaurant in Havana
49 Bello: Venezuela’s morassAlso in this section