The Wall Street Journal - 11.09.2019

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL. Wednesday, September 11, 2019 |A

A screen in Seoul shows footage of a North Korean missile launch.

JUNG YEON-JE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

KABUL—President Trump’s
decision to cancel a U.S.-Tali-
ban deal and end negotiations
effectively hands Afghan Pres-
ident Ashraf Ghani the control
he has long craved over a
peace process from which he
had been excluded.
Mr. Ghani, a renowned mi-
cromanager who presents
himself as history’s answer to
Afghanistan’s problems, is now
where he insisted he should
have been from the start: in
the driver’s seat of efforts to
end his country’s nearly 18-
year war.
“Things have changed now,”
he told members of the Afghan
security forces in a speech
Monday in the presidential
palace, with the satisfied air
of a man vindicated by recent
events. “We are ready for
peace talks, but if the Taliban
think they can scare us, look
at these warriors.”
Mr. Ghani’s victory-by-de-
fault in his struggle to oversee
the Afghan peace process puts
him more comfortably in
power than at any time since
the U.S. resumed direct talks
with the Taliban more than a
year ago.
The threat has vanished of
a peace process that could
have dashed Mr. Ghani’s ambi-
tions for a second five-year
term by forming an interim
administration. By breaking
off the negotiations, Mr.
Trump has effectively cleared
the path for Mr. Ghani to win
presidential elections sched-
uled for Sept. 28.
The burden now falls on the
Afghan technocrat, a former
World Bank and United Na-
tions official, to produce a
comprehensive settlement in a
war that, with the collapse of
the U.S.-Taliban negotiating
channel, is expected to turn
bloodier.
“His government is openly
celebrating the setback in
talks,” said Laurel Miller, di-
rector of the International Cri-
sis Group’s Asia program. “But
he now faces the challenge of
showing he can come up with
a plan for peace that reflects
the real situation on the
ground and that can win the
support of all of the country’s
anti-Taliban forces.”
Mr. Ghani has disclosed no
details of his plans to take
charge of the peace process.
On Monday, he called for a
cease-fire before any talks, a
position the Taliban have re-
peatedly rejected.
The two factors that led the
Trump administration in June
2018 to order a resumption of
direct U.S.-Taliban talks ha-
ven’t changed: a stalemate in
the war and the Taliban’s in-
sistence on settling business
with the U.S. first.
Also unchanged is the date
of U.S. presidential elections,
by which time Mr. Trump has
hoped to bring home a sub-
stantial number of the 14,
U.S. troops in Afghanistan.
The now-scrapped deal

reached by U.S. and Taliban

negotiators was to have ush-

ered in talks between the Tali-

ban and an Afghan delegation

that included government offi-

cials. Those talks would decide

on a permanent cease-fire and

how the country would be

ruled.

Unless the Taliban take the

unlikely step of changing their

U.S.-first position on talks, a

reboot of the U.S.-Taliban

talks is essential for restarting

the process, Ms. Miller and

other experts said Tuesday.

“Alternatively, it’s possible

that the U.S. will just draw

down its troops, the war will

go on, and ultimately Afghani-

stan will be left to its fate,”

said Ms. Miller, a former se-

nior U.S. diplomat for Afghani-

stan and Pakistan.

In his efforts to insert his

government into the peace

process, Mr. Ghani, 70 years

old, used the institutional and

organizational savvy he

amassed in previous roles.

Yet the Taliban proved im-

movable. The hard-line Isla-

mist militia has long refused

to speak directly to any Kabul

administration, which they

view as an American pawn.

None of the Afghan presi-

dent’s myriad committees, de-

tailed flowcharts and diplo-

matic maneuvering succeeded

in winning a seat at the nego-

tiating table.

Then, following an attack in

Kabul that killed 12 people, in-

cluding a U.S. soldier, Mr.

Trump dumped the U.S.-Tali-

ban deal, which awaited only

his signature.

On Monday, he declared the

talks dead.

Some members of the presi-

dent’s administration had op-

posed the Taliban talks, in-

cluding Mr. Trump’s national

security adviser, John Bolton,

who has said Mr. Trump could

draw down troops in Afghani-

stan without a deal. Mr.

Trump dismissed Mr. Bolton

on Tuesday.

The demise of the settle-

ment is likely to embolden mi-

nority but influential voices in

the Ghani government who be-

lieve a military victory over

the Taliban is possible, accord-

ing to a Western official in the

Afghan capital who has closely

followed the Doha talks and

other previous Afghan peace

initiatives.

It also weakens the credibil-

ity of the Taliban’s negotiators

in Doha and reinforces the de-

sire of hard-line factions in

the Taliban’s leadership coun-

cil in Pakistan for continued

war, the official said.

Without a quick return to

U.S.-Taliban talks, thousands

more will die, the official

warned.

As preparations for the

Sept. 28 elections accelerate,

the U.S. military hinted that it

is likely to ramp up airstrikes

and raids by Afghan and

American special forces.

With much of the onus now

on Mr. Ghani, he is going to

have to reconsider his demand

for complete government con-

trol of the process and his in-

sistence that the Taliban lay

down their arms before talks,

said Ms. Miller of the Interna-

tional Crisis Group.

‘Things have changed now,’

President Ashraf Ghani told

Afghan security forces who

participated in a ceremony in

Kabul on Monday.

WORLD NEWS

announce after next week’s

vote. Mr. Netanyahu’s vow

thrusts the control of Israeli-

occupied territories squarely

in the spotlight as polls show

him struggling to get enough

seats to win re-election.

The move, if carried out,

would fundamentally challenge

years of international consen-

sus on Israeli-Palestinian

peace by unilaterally asserting

permanent borders that have

long been considered subject

to future negotiations.

At a news conference fea-

turing a map of the Jordan

Valley, Mr. Netanyahu im-

plored Israeli voters to give

him a chance to accomplish a

long-held goal of many Israe-

lis, especially on the right. The

prime minister said the Trump

administration’s likely accep-

tance of such a controversial

move was a once-in-a-century

opportunity.

“I am asking for a clear

mandate,” Mr. Netanyahu said.

“Give me the power to secure

Israel’s security. Give me the

power to set Israel’s borders.”

“We haven’t had such an

opportunity since 1967,” the

prime minister added, refer-

ring to the year when Israel

seized control of the West

Bank during a war with its

Arab neighbors. “And it’s

doubtful for another 50 years.”

It was the second time this

year that the embattled pre-

mier has vowed to annex Is-

rael-controlled parts of the

West Bank if elected. He made

a similar pledge in April, with-

out singling out the Jordan

Valley, before his party won

enough seats to try to form a

governing coalition. Israel was

launched into the current

round of elections after Mr.

Netanyahu failed to bridge

gaps among the smaller secu-

lar and religious parties he

needed to secure a majority.

Saeb Erekat, a senior Pales-

tinian official and lead negoti-

ator with Israelis, said Mr. Ne-

tanyahu’s plan contradicts

international law and would

prolong the conflict.

“We need to end the con-

flict and not to keep it for an-

other 100 years, as Netanyahu

plans. Keep in mind annexa-

tion under international law is

a war crime,” Mr. Erekat wrote

in a tweet.

Some of Mr. Netanyahu’s

election rivals also criticized

his announcement and called

it an election stunt.

“Netanyahu has had 13

years as prime minister and

no one stopped him from ap-

plying sovereignty to the Jor-

dan Valley,” said Yair Lapid, a

leader of the centrist Blue and

White party that is Mr. Netan-

yahu’s biggest election threat.

The Trump administration

has taken a series of moves

that Palestinians say have al-

tered the status quo, including

recognizing Jerusalem as Is-

rael’s capital and Israeli sover-

eignty over the Golan Heights.

A Trump administration of-

ficial said Tuesday that U.S.

policy hadn’t changed and that

the Trump peace plan would

be delivered after the Israeli

election as planned.

The Jordan Valley, which

stretches from the West Bank’s

northern borders south to the

Dead Sea, has been a conten-

tious negotiation issue between

Israel and the Palestinians. It

includes the Palestinian town

of Jericho and large swaths of

fertile land the Palestinians say

they need to build an economy

in a future state.

Israel says it needs control

there for security. Mr. Netan-

yahu also has argued that Is-

rael has a historical right to

annex West Bank settlements

as the area was the biblical

home of the Jewish people.

Mr. Netanyahu said his plan

wouldn’t force any Palestin-

ians to live in Israeli-con-

trolled land. Using a map, the

prime minister showed the

Palestinian populations, in-

cluding the town of Jericho,

would be non-Israeli enclaves

with separate routes directly

connecting them to other Pal-

estinian-controlled territories.

TEL AVIV—Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
said he would annex a huge
swath of the West Bank along
the border with Jordan if he
stays in power after next
week’s election, in a last-min-
ute push on Tuesday to draw
more conservative votes.
If he forms a government
and holds to his 11th-hour
campaign pledge, Mr. Netan-
yahu would extend Israeli civil
law to Israeli-controlled parts
of the Jordan Valley and
northern Dead Sea, a fertile
strip of land along the West
Bank’s border with Jordan.
Around 10,000 Israelis and
80,000 Palestinians lived there
in 2016, according to the Is-
raeli nongovernmental organi-
zation Peace Now. The plan
would seem to leave any fu-
ture Palestinian state encircled
by Israel rather than sharing a
border with Jordan.
Mr. Netanyahu issued his
promise before the presenta-
tion of a Trump administra-
tion peace plan, which the
White House is expected to

BYDOVLIEBER
ANDFELICIASCHWARTZ

Netanyahu Vows to Annex Contested Land

Prime minister’s plan

would likely leave any

future Palestinian

state encircled by Israel

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu laying out his campaign promise on Tuesday with a map

showing Jordan in yellow, the area he would annex in blue, and some Palestinian enclaves in orange.

MENAHEM KAHANA/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

testing ballistic missiles, the

North Korean foreign ministry

called him a “human defect.”

Some security experts be-

lieve the negotiating hand of

Kim Jong Un’s regime could

have improved because of the

weapons launches and the

continuing squabbling be-

tween the U.S. and its allies.

“Momentum has swung in

North Korea’s favor,” said Lee

Sung-yoon, a Korea expert at

Tufts University’s Fletcher

School. “Now is the time for

North Korea to push the enve-

lope.”

With a resumption of talks,

Washington and Pyongyang

return to the task of bridging

a significant divide: The two

sides have yet to agree on

how, and when, the Kim re-

gime should start relinquish-

ing its nuclear program.

The North covets a process

that unfolds in a gradual, step-

by-step manner, with the U.S.

rolling back some economic

penalties levied against the

isolated regime. Washington

wants a grander bargain where

Pyongyang agrees to specifics

before the sanctions get lifted.

The Hanoi summit broke

down after the U.S. balked at

the North’s offer to close some

parts of the Yongbyon complex,

the Kim regime’s main nuclear

facility that makes plutonium

and highly enriched uranium.

In return, Mr. Kim demanded a

comprehensive rollback of re-

cent sanctions that have

bruised the North’s economy.

Washington wanted a

broader concessions package

that went beyond Yongbyon.

The U.S. has maintained its

stance of wanting a final, fully

verified denuclearization of

the Korean Peninsula. The

main questions for the ex-

pected talks, security experts

say, will be if the U.S. offers

any major concessions—and

whether doing so can net any-

thing from the North in return.

SEOUL—Seven months after

the U.S. and North Korea

walked out of nuclear talks at

a summit in Vietnam, the two

sides appear ready again to

work toward a deal that trades

Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons

for a loosening of U.S.-led eco-

nomic sanctions.

But the chessboard looks

very different now.

North Korea appears to

have shuffled its negotiating

team from the halted meeting

in Hanoi, and American diplo-

mats to some extent will have

to begin the talks anew. South

Korea and Japan, the U.S.’s

two largest allies in the region,

are sparring over trade. Seoul

has seen its mediator role in

nuclear talks diminished by

the North’s dismissal, and it

defied Washington in August

by pulling out of an intelli-

gence-sharing pact with Tokyo.

What is more, North Korea

has launched nearly a dozen

weapons tests since April, in-

cluding one on Tuesday, sig-

naling it doesn’t intend to be a

pushover if and when the talks

with the U.S. formally resume,

security analysts said.

The disputes between Japan

and South Korea and provoca-

tions of North Korea will likely

complicate U.S. efforts to bro-

ker and ultimately enforce a

comprehensive disarmament

deal with North Korea. Pyong-

yang, in a Tuesday state-media

report, said it was willing to

engage in “comprehensive dis-

cussions” with Washington by

month’s end. The two coun-

tries’ leaders at an impromptu

June 30 meeting had agreed to

restart stalled talks.

The North’s state report

didn’t specify exactly when or

where a relaunch of working-

level talks would take place.

President Trump, after learn-

ing of the state report, said

“having meetings is a good

thing, not a bad thing.”

Tuesday’s departure of na-

tional security adviser John

Bolton, a foreign-policy hawk,

adds another layer of com-

plexity to the situation. Mr.

Bolton was wary of North Ko-

rea and clashed with Pyong-

yang. After Mr. Bolton in May

said North Korea had violated

United Nations restrictions by

BYTIMOTHYW.MARTIN

Playing Field Shifts

ForU.S.,NorthKorea

BYCRAIGNELSON

Afghan Leader Inherits Peace Role

OMAR SOBHANI/REUTERS

Some experts

believe Pyongyang

has improved its

negotiating hand.

RAHMAT GUL/ASSOCIATED PRESS