Developing the Answers 15Dempsey, and certainly many others in the
policy community, see a dif er ent real ity. The total
number of armed conflicts of all types tripled
from the 1950s to the 1990s. And though most
were relatively low- intensity conflicts with limited
fatalities and war time fatalities have declined
dramatically— from 240 battle- related deaths per
million of the world’s population in 1950 to less
than 10 per million in 2007— the numbers are still
too high if you are responsible for the lives of
others. Those that see today’s world as overly vio-
lent question the reliability of the data from earlier
centuries. Do we really know that in hunter- gather
socie ties, warfare was responsible for 15 percent
of fatalities as Pinker asserts? Many anthropolo-
gists claim that no evidence suggests that the
earliest human socie ties were warlike. And we
actually have had no reliable data about murder
rates and rates of or ga nized crime in most develop-
ing countries until only very recently, yet Pinker’s
argument includes all those types of vio lence.
Pinker’s explanation for the decline in vio-
lence is that while individuals may still be inclined
toward revenge, sadism, and vio lence, other
forces— “better angels”— are steering people in
another direction. Governments and better edu-
cation implore people to control their impulses
and negotiate with others. Democ ratization
helps; demo cratic states are less likely to fight
each other. Free trade helps; those who trade are
less likely to fight. International institutions help;
member states are less likely to fight each other.
Examining past trends should help us predict
the future. Dempsey and others would more than
likely see a bleak future. They predict future con-
frontations in not only the Middle East but also
East Asia, where nationalism in China, Japan, and
others is coming to a head. Pinker himself makes
no predictions about the future, although if his
argument is correct, then despite people’s deep-
est urges, the future should become even more
peaceful.For CritiCal analy sis
- Based on what you know so far, who has the better argument about whether our world
is more peaceful today— Dempsey or Pinker? What kind of evidence would strengthen
each of their arguments? - In your opinion, is it impor tant to debate these questions? Why or why not?
a. S ee Human Security Report Proj ect, “The Decline in Global Vio lence: Real ity or Myth?” (March 3, 2014) and
Car ne gie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, “Is the World Becoming More Peaceful?” (Sept. 27, 2012).