New Zealand Listener - 09.07,2019

SEPTEMBER 7 2019 LISTENER 33

of America have been hanging out for. He’s the assholes’ asshole.”

(The immediate problem for the Democratic aspirants is that,

for the time being, they’re running against each other rather than

Trump. Hence the stupefying spectacle of them queuing up to dis-

parage Obama during the last round of debates. Front runner Joe

Biden’s greatest political asset is his eight years as Obama’s highly

visible and – by historical standards – activist vice president, so

undermining Biden necessitates portraying the Obama adminis-

tration as, if not quite a failure, then certainly a disappointment.)

There’s also the possibility that Trump’s recent intemperance

stems from a growing concern that his great-

est political asset – the economy – may be

depreciating. His recent targets include

Jerome Powell, his handpicked chair of

the Federal Reserve, who was labelled an

“enemy” because of his reluctance to cut

interest rates again.

The NYT’s Maggie Haberman reported

that “some former Trump Administration

officials said they were increasingly worried

about the President’s behaviour, suggesting

it stems from increasing pressure on Mr Trump as the economy

seems more worrisome and next year’s election approaches.”

The stock market has got the wobbles, the media is awash with

speculation that the economy is losing steam and may be heading

into recession and the US business establishment is bewildered and

apprehensive over the apparently escalating trade war with China.

That’s hardly surprisingly given that Trump’s public comments sug-

gest he doesn’t understand how tariffs actually work.

Much of the chatter has centred on the inverted yield curve. This

occurs when interest rates on short-term bonds are higher than

those on long-term bonds as investor nervousness over immedi-

ate economic prospects drives a flight to the safety of long-term

investments. In March, the yield on US 10-year Treasury notes

GE

TT

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MA
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dropped below the yield on three-month paper for the first time
since mid-2007.
And we all know what happened in 2008. The inverted yield
curve has foreshadowed every recession in the past 50 years and
only once signalled a slump that didn’t eventuate.
VULNERABLE ON THE ECONOMY
Recent polling highlights Trump’s vulnerability in the event of
an economic downtown. Respondents were asked whether they
approved or disapproved of his handling of the following: the
economy, immigration, taxes, healthcare,
women’s issues, abortion, gun violence, for-
eign policy and climate change. The only
one for which he got a tick was economic
stewardship. A separate Associated Press/
NORC Center for Public Affairs Research
poll found 62% disapproval of Trump’s job
performance, compared with 36% approval.
Trump will pull every lever at his disposal
and some that aren’t – witness his “order-
ing” US companies to cut ties with China

• to keep the economy in positive territory. But just as Trump has
  been the story in American politics these past few years, one senses
  he will be the issue in 2020.
  Rich Lowry is the editor of National Review, founded in 1955 by
  William F Buckley Jr, America’s pre-eminent post-war conservative
  public intellectual. Lowry has transitioned from a “never Trumper”
  to a “Never Say Never Trumper”, but it’s hard to disagree with his
  assessment that “the backdrop to it all [in 2020] will be the level
  of public tolerance for, or exhaustion with, Trump’s antics and
  provocations. In other words, can Americans bear for the show
  to go on?”
  One thing we may be sure of is that Trump won’t abide by the
  show-business adage, “Always leave them wanting more.” l

Trump will pull every lever

at his disposal and some

that aren’t – witness his

“ordering” US companies

to cut ties with China –

to keep the economy

in positive territory.